THE WELCH COMPANY
440 Davis Court #1602
San Francisco, CA 94111-2496
415 781 5700
rodwelch@pacbell.net


S U M M A R Y


DIARY: October 14, 1999 09:07 AM Thursday; Rod Welch

Received comments from Morris on risk management issue.

1...Summary/Objective
2...Leadership with Broader Vision Seeks Knowledge to Be Prepared
3...Ignorance Prefered Avoids Accountability for Knowledge - Attitude
4...Leaders Have Moral Obligation to Be Prepared by Acquiring Knowledge
5...Early Adopters Pioneer Path to Future Experiment with Better Methods
6...Leaders Have a Moral Duty to Be Prepared to Succeed in the Future
7...Proving Usefulness of New Technology Requires Future Experience
8...Leadership Must Invest to Protect Interests of Stakeholders
9...Einstein notes that all knowledge comes from experience, reflecting
10...New Realities Require Greater Attention to Maintaining Alignment
11...Communiation Metrics Applies Sound Management Practice
12...SDS Tracks Sequence, Complexity Overwhelms Human Mind, Shocking
.........Communication is Biggest Risk in Enterprise!


..............
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CONTACTS 
0201 - Intel Corporation
020101 - Mr. Morris E. Jones; Director of Architecture

SUBJECTS
Bridge from Known to New Work Methods
Communication Main Factor of Success, Management Productivity
Mistakes in NASA JPL Space Program
Risk Management Communication Main Task of Managers, Largest Risk
Experiment New Methods, Who Pays
Knowledge Experience, SDS Diary Links Information, Time, Meaning
Sunshine Profits Shield Management from Mistakes
Einstein Experience Source of Knowledge
Overwhelmed Observe Complexity of Management Details
Ignorance Preferred Knowledge Overwhelming
Crisis Management More Fun, Fast Action
Atititude Makes Resistance to Communication Metrics Emotional
Print Preferred Fear Responsibility Notice Burden of Knowledge

4115 -
4115 -    ..
4116 - Summary/Objective
4117 -
411701 - Follow up ref SDS 67 0000, ref SDS 66 0000.
411702 -
411703 - Received ref DRT 1 0001 from Morris responding to my letter,
411704 - ref DIP 3 0001, on 991012, ref SDS 67 0001, responding to Morris'
411705 - letter, ref DRP 5 0001, received on 991010. ref SDS 66 1560
411706 -
411708 -  ..
411709 - Leadership with Broader Vision Seeks Knowledge to Be Prepared
411710 - Ignorance Prefered Avoids Accountability for Knowledge - Attitude
411711 - Leaders Have Moral Obligation to Be Prepared by Acquiring Knowledge
411712 -
411713 - Morris appreciated the effort to put web mail in email composition,
411714 - ref DRT 1 0001, per his concerns on 991009. ref SDS 65 4154, even
411715 - though it didn't work correctly, as reported on 991012. ref SDS 67
411716 - 0001  He said that people get mad when documents contain links that
411717 - expand span of attention with the power of knowledge, because this
411718 - expands responsibility for understanding cause and effect.
411720 -  ..
411721 - The prospect that failure to expose the light of knowledge is welcome
411722 - relief from responsibility seems troubling for the practice of
411723 - management.
411725 -  ..
411726 - On 980712 Max Wideman said people would object to being overwhelmed by
411727 - intelligence. ref SDS 26 5977  On 990712 clicking for intelligence was
411728 - a burden. ref SDS 36 5837  On 990718 executives prefer cursory
411729 - understanding, ref SDS 38 5251, and avoid complexity, discussed below.
411730 - ref SDS 0 5600  On 990625 desire to avoid executive responsibility was
411731 - attributed to "psyche." ref SDS 35 4914  Feel Good management avoids
411732 - responsibility for knowledge, cited in the letter on medical mistakes
411733 - explaining executive attitude that prefers crisis management to avoid
411734 - accountability, ref DIP 2 1045 and ref DIP 2 5923, submitted on
411735 - 990924. ref SDS 59 2066
411736 -
411737 -    [On 991021 policy adopted to destroy the record in 45 days to avoid
411738 -    accountability, greases slippery slope to ignorance, loss,
411739 -    conflict, crisis, calamity. ref SDS 68 2695
411741 -     ..
411742 -    [On 991103 accountability is the "800# gorilla" that avoids
411743 -    responsibility for knowledge enabled by SDS links to context.
411744 -    ref SDS 74 7308
411746 -     ..
411747 -    [On 991108 Prometheus banished for bringing light of knowledge,
411748 -    under Dilemma of the Ages, truth or consequences. ref SDS 76 5810]
411750 -     ..
411751 -    [On 991221 ABC News reports critical information missing in 90% of
411752 -    communication between doctors and patients. ref SDS 78 0001]
411754 -     ..
411755 -    [On 991227 medical executive wants communication that is concise
411756 -    and to the point. ref SDS 80 9844]
411758 -     ..
411759 -    [On 000303 cursory response shows impact of information overload.
411760 -    ref SDS 85 6816]
411762 -     ..
411763 -    [On 000504 another example of preferring printed media to avoid
411764 -    burden of knowledge. ref SDS 86 5092
411766 -     ..
411767 -    [On 000822 Intel CEO reports bad management, not bad luck causes
411768 -    delays, reduced earings. ref SDS 88 019R
411770 -     ..
411771 -    [On 011006 Morris upset again about clicking 2 links, requests
411772 -    printed report, rather than "intelligence" with links. ref SDS 90
411773 -    P36I
411775 -  ..
411776 - Leaders are charged to seek knowledge, not avoid it.  They stand on
411777 - the bridge of the ship, on the hill above the battle, they occupy the
411778 - executive suite high above the fray in order to have a broader vision,
411779 - i.e., to acquire knowledge to be prepared for making decisions that
411780 - control the future and therefore the fortunes of all.  Acquisition of
411781 - knowledge is an "intelligence" function, and is a responsibility that
411782 - is avoided only at the perial of all who depend on leadership.
411783 -
411784 -    [On 991222 problem of "scale" in relation to human capacities is
411785 -    reviewed from Doug Engelbart's work. ref SDS 79 1596]
411787 -     ..
411788 -    [On 040312 energy from connecting cause and effect yields the power
411789 -    of knowledge to predict the future under the locality principle
411790 -    that applies the irreversibility of time from the 2nd law of
411791 -    thermodynamics, which cannot be ignored. ref SDS 91 YH4G
411793 -  ..
411794 - Leadership is exercised in different contexts.  Momentary decisions in
411795 - crisis, in the heat of battle, must filter details.  But leadership
411796 - outside of crisis must embrace and "study" details, as recommended by
411797 - Grove, reviewed on 980307, ref SDS 22 3668 and ref SDS 22 3620, to
411798 - both avoid crisis, and to be prepared to succeed in the next battle,
411799 - as for example was formulated from the football metaphore on 951010.
411800 - ref SDS 14 9558
411802 -  ..
411803 - Leadership with a broader vision is explained in the New World
411804 - Order... paper, ref OF 3 5654, and further reviewing Andy Grove's book
411805 - on 980307. ref SDS 22 4485
411806 -
411808 -  ..
411809 - Early Adopters Pioneer Path to Future Experiment with Better Methods
411810 - Leaders Have a Moral Duty to Be Prepared to Succeed in the Future
411811 -
411812 - My letter on 991012 notes that communication using conventional
411813 - practice of conversation and email is the biggest risk in human
411814 - endeavors, due to lack of alignment, caused by "meaning drift," which
411815 - causes continual mistakes. ref DIP 3 2066 issued ref SDS 67 0001 and
411816 - citing the letter to Dave Vannier, ref DIP 9 0001, submitted on
411817 - 991007, which Morris had not had time to review.
411819 -  ..
411820 - The letter on 991012 asks how to identify early adopters at Intel?
411821 - ref DIP 3 0999
411823 -  ..
411824 - Morris responds that Welch (i.e., the developer) bears the entire
411825 - burden of proof and influence when it comes to a new concept.  Others
411826 - have no moral or other obligation to "prove you wrong." (A first
411827 - principle of marketing and sales), ref DRT 1 2480
411828 -
411829 -       [On 991222 Doug Engelbart explains how to assess investing in
411830 -       pilot tests. ref SDS 79 5402]
411831 -
411833 -  ..
411834 - This is another form of the view on 990526 that developers should
411835 - finance big successful firms in experimenting to discover better
411836 - management and products, ref SDS 33 6132, which is short-sighted by
411837 - ignoring empathic design principles based on Grove and Christensen.
411838 - ref SDS 33 0338  On 990527 he argued again that Welch should pay for
411839 - Intel to experiment with Com Metrics. ref SDS 34 5672
411841 -  ..
411842 - This appears to conflict with the record on 980307 that shows Grove
411843 - says Intel's policy is to try ideas that do not have wide currency,
411844 - ref SDS 21 3622, consistent with his call to experiment with even
411845 - "crummy ideas." ref SDS 21 3416 and ref SDS 21 2836
411847 -  ..
411848 - Leaders have a moral obligation to help people in their charge
411849 - succeed, and avoid danger.  This requires investigating to discover
411850 - opportunity and danger from new realities, and investing to experiment
411851 - with new remedies, and guidance for those unable to see inchoate
411852 - danger ahead that is obscured by turbulence of daily activity, as in
411853 - the arrow diagram Morris prepared on 950303. ref SDS 11 3497
411855 -  ..
411856 - On 920128 the burden of leadership was explained with respect to SDS.
411857 - ref SDS 5 1199
411859 -  ..
411860 - Leaders have a moral obligation to invest stockholder's money wisely.
411861 - On 941114 IBM investigated SDS and POIMS, and observed that it has
411862 - excellent capability that spans IBM's IT Workflow and Communications
411863 - development groups, and would serve as a bridge to integrate IBM's
411864 - Workgroup strategies. ref SDS 9 5380
411866 -  ..
411867 - On 990721 Morris pointed out that SDS is a memory aid, ref SDS 39
411868 - 0001, and his letter on 980903, ref DRP 2 0001, cites advantages of
411869 - Com Metrics to deliver "intelligence." ref SDS 27 0001  On 911123 he
411870 - said SDS organizes the work. ref SDS 4 0477  Today he says it supports
411871 - discipline to apply good work principles managers already know.
411872 - ref DRT 1 1222
411874 -  ..
411875 - On 950628 IBM purchased Lotus Notes for $4B. ref SDS 13 9450  LN is
411876 - not a memory aid and does not deliver "intelligence," per analysis on
411877 - 950607. ref SDS 12 6006  On 970617 Bill Gates noted that LN was not a
411878 - good investment. ref SDS 20 7493  It does not take an astute business
411879 - person nor a rocket scientist to make this calculation.  How many
411880 - people use LN to generate and deliver "intelligence" every day, all
411881 - day long?  NONE!!!
411883 -  ..
411884 - Where then does the moral obligation lie?
411886 -  ..
411887 - To spend $4B because LN has a name similar to a once popular
411888 - spreadsheet program, or to invest a few million to develop a tool that
411889 - delivers useful "intelligence that aids human memory and supports
411890 - analysis, as Morris found SDS accomplishes?
411891 -
411892 -
411893 -
411894 -
4119 -

SUBJECTS
Pilot Test Overcomes Fear Change Leadership Broader Vision Helps Peop

5603 -
560401 -  ..
560402 - Proving Usefulness of New Technology Requires Future Experience
560403 - Leadership Must Invest to Protect Interests of Stakeholders
560404 -
560405 - The developer cannot bear the entire burden of "proof" for a new
560406 - concept, asserted in Morris' letter today, ref DRT 1 2480, because by
560407 - definition of "new," the "proof" of efficacy comes from future
560408 - experience, related on 990527 reviewing the Innovator's Dilemma and
560409 - Disruptive Technology. ref SDS 34 9711
560411 -  ..
560412 - Lynn Conway's explanation of introducing VLSI makes this point
560413 - reported on 960612. ref SDS 16 1368
560414 -
560416 -  ..
560417 - Einstein notes that all knowledge comes from experience, reflecting
560418 - Campbell's point that the human brain is an experience machine not a
560419 - logic machine. ref SDS 3 3002  Einstein is set out in the letter to
560420 - Morris today. ref DIT 1 5933
560422 -  ..
560423 - That is why I asked Morris on 990718 to submit the SDS record to
560424 - colleagues at Intel. ref SDS 38 8966
560425 -
560426 -     [On 991021 Morris needs experience observing SDS process of
560427 -     creating and maintaining alignment. ref SDS 68 3006, ref SDS 68
560428 -     2496]
560430 -      ..
560431 -     [On 991124 found research on Einstein supporting this proposition.
560432 -     ref SDS 77 0001]
560434 -  ..
560435 - The record on 991010 explains those who benefit from avoiding mistakes
560436 - that crash vehicles on Mars, incur costly product release delays, kill
560437 - patients on the operating table, all due to lack of alignment with
560438 - requirements, have an interest in experimenting with Com Metrics to
560439 - improve productivity and earnings. ref SDS 66 4440  Similarly the
560440 - letter to Dave Vannier on 991007. ref SDS 64 0001
560442 -  ..
560443 - Submitted ref DIT 1 1980 making this point.
560445 -  ..
560446 - Management is not excused from failure because they refuse to try new
560447 - methods for improving productivity on the grounds they were not 100%
560448 - sure of success before pilot testing, as discussed with the Program
560449 - Manager for the airport expansion at SFIA on 990317. ref SDS 29 5600
560451 -  ..
560452 - On 890809 we reviewed the requirement for budgeting to invest sunshine
560453 - profits on investigating new concepts, processes and tools in order to
560454 - maintain a competitive posture, ref SDS 2 U87H, under new realities of
560455 - changing markets, lest they come too late to the "party and miss the
560456 - future, per Christensen. Part of "investigating" entails gain some
560457 - experience in order to make reasoned judgments about "proof."
560459 -  ..
560460 - Only the willfully blind can ignore this dynamic. ref DIT 1 0560
560461 -
560462 -
560463 -
560464 -
560465 -
560466 -
5605 -

SUBJECTS
New Realities 21st Century, Prepare
Marketing SDS Consistent Good Management
Consistent Good Practices, Empowered
Consistent Good Management Difficult Supported by SDS Plan Perform Re

6606 -
660701 -  ..
660702 - New Realities Require Greater Attention to Maintaining Alignment
660703 - Communiation Metrics Applies Sound Management Practice
660704 -
660705 - Morris suggests explaining SDS helps managers with the discipline to
660706 - use good work principles they already know. ref DRT 1 1222
660707 -
660708 -      This supplements Morris explanation of SDS advantages cited
660709 -      above. ref SDS 0 1209
660711 -  ..
660712 - It reflects David Vannier's explanation on 970603, ref SDS 19 4528,
660713 - and review of Covey's work on 921205. ref SDS 6 6013  In fact the
660714 - language is so close that one wonders if Morris has made contact with
660715 - Dave on this.
660716 -
660717 -      [On 991023 discussed with Morris. ref SDS 69 1932]
660719 -       ..
660720 -      [On 991025 article by Peter Drucker calls this using technology
660721 -      to "routinize" existing work practice. ref SDS 71 0836]
660723 -  ..
660724 - My response says no one is aware that the biggest risk in all forms of
660725 - enterprise is communication, per letter to Dave on 991007, ref SDS 64
660726 - 0001, and that the only solution is adding a "business metric" to the
660727 - process, because technology has created a new reality of information
660728 - overload that has shifted the balance in human affairs at the dawn of
660729 - the 21st century, noted by Grove.  People can ignore new realities,
660730 - but cannot escape the consequences.  You must adjust. Adjustment means
660731 - change and the change that is needed is a new ingredient to maintain
660732 - alignment in order to avoid meaning drift. ref DIT 1 3066
660734 -  ..
660735 - Linked to new math humor in the letter to Dave. ref SDS 58 0001
660737 -  ..
660738 - Asked about Gutenberg again. ref SDS 66 3056
660739 -
660740 -
660741 -
660742 -
660743 -
6608 -

SUBJECTS
Complexity Managed by Power of Microcosm
Shocking Power Microcosm Cost Savings Comm Metrics
Complex Communication Span of Attention, Mistakes, Needs SDS
Complexity Organized by Microscope of Law
Complexity Management Details Shocking, Overwhelming
Chronology History Experience Causation Intelligence
Communication 90% Time Largest Risk Most Time of Managers
Complexity Managed Summary Linked to Detail
Communication Main Factor of Successful Management
Risk Caused by Complexity which causes Uncertainty
Incomplete Response Compounds Complexity
Discover Small Details Later Cause Major Problems Need Proactive Disc
Complexity Managed by Power of Microcosm

9015 -
901601 -  ..
901602 - SDS Tracks Sequence, Complexity Overwhelms Human Mind, Shocking
901603 -
901604 - Complexity of daily work is hidden by the buffer between serial
901605 - processing in the conscious mind, and parallel processing in the
901606 - subconscious mind, per POIMS. ref OF 2 TJ6I
901608 -  ..
901609 - The complexity of existence is reflected in meetings, calls, email and
901610 - actions of daily work.  This complexity continually expands the chance
901611 - of mistakes due to misunderstanding and erroneous connections of cause
901612 - and effect, resulting in conflicting rather than complimentary action,
901613 - commonly called called bumbling.  Drucker says complexity of work is
901614 - so overwhelming that people have given up on improving communication,
901615 - reported on 931130. ref SDS 8 3851
901616 -
901617 -      [On 991021 Morris related new policies being adoped to destroy
901618 -      intellectual capital after 45 days to avoid accountability for
901619 -      mistakes. ref SDS 68 2695
901621 -  ..
901622 - SDS tracks sequence in order to avoid meaning drift, and exposing this
901623 - to people is shocking, ref DIT 1 5933, following up analysis of
901624 - complexity on 991010, ref SDS 66 3066, and analysis on 950204
901625 - explaining people can maintain alignment for only about 1 minute,
901626 - ref SDS 10 0550, and on 990303 that people can only track about 7
901627 - subjects in the moment, so that most correlations, implications and
901628 - nuance falls outside span of attention. ref SDS 28 5328
901630 -  ..
901631 - Cursory, incomplete communication increases ambiguity, complexity and
901632 - error, example reviewed on 990718. ref SDS 38 5251
901633 -
901634 -    [On 991025 cursory, incomplete communication compounds complexity.
901635 -    ref SDS 70 5432]
901636 -
901637 -    [On 991028 cited cursory communication in letter to Morris.
901638 -    ref SDS 72 3216]
901640 -     ..
901641 -    [On 991028 explained meaning drift to Morris. ref SDS 72 0001]
901643 -     ..
901644 -    [On 991101 explain meaning drift. ref SDS 73 2800]
901646 -     ..
901647 -    [On 991108 example at Kaiser. ref SDS 75 3968]
901649 -     ..
901650 -    [On 991108 Hutch's paper on Prometheus shows the ancients were
901651 -    troubled by giving the power of enlightenbment to the people.
901652 -    ref SDS 76 5810]
901654 -     ..
901655 -    [000106 SDS best solution for complexity. ref SDS 81 5120
901657 -     ..
901658 -    [000116 SDS strongest knowledge management tool. ref SDS 82 0877
901660 -     ..
901661 -    [On 000124 proposal for SDS type capability to be date based.
901662 -    ref SDS 83 0279]
901664 -     ..
901665 -    [On 000212 Colloquium considers managing knowledge as a continuous
901666 -    information stream, rather than "documents." ref SDS 84 9790]
901668 -     ..
901669 -    [On 000718 DKR project at SRI submits proposal to NASA for
901670 -    improving management in order to meet the challenge of increasing
901671 -    complexity. ref SDS 87 6600
901673 -     ..
901674 -    [On 010428 Dick Karpinski noticed challenge of complexity.
901675 -    ref SDS 89 O56N
901677 -  ..
901678 - This gives rise to the paradigm shift at the dawn of the 21s century
901679 - that the...
901680 -
901681 -         Communication is Biggest Risk in Enterprise!
901682 -
901683 -
901684 - ...set out in the letter to Dave Vannier, ref DIP 9 0001, on 991007.
901685 - ref SDS 64 7920
901686 -
901687 -    [On 991021 cited this again. ref SDS 68 3077]
901689 -     ..
901690 -    [On 991023 called and disucssed. ref SDS 69 3077]
901691 -
901693 -  ..
901694 - Cite Morris' point that SDS is a memory aid, ref DIT 1 0924, from his
901695 - letter on 990721. ref SDS 39 0001
901696 -
901697 -
901698 -
901699 -
901700 -
901701 -
901702 -
901703 -
901704 -
9018 -
Distribution. . . . See "CONTACTS"