THE WELCH COMPANY
440 Davis Court #1602
San Francisco, CA 94111-2496
415 781 5700
S U M M A R Y
DIARY: October 11, 1995 09:00 AM Wednesday;
Attend IBM's Software World, TechCon event in San Jose.
.....Stumbling Toward a Future that is Rushing Toward Us
3...Taking the "Quantum Leap"
.....IBM's Management Solutions - "Cyber" Library Search
.....Technology for Better Management Save Time Money Lives
.....IBM's 2nd Idea - Finding a Song
.....Useful Automation Criteria - POIMS
.....Emperor Wore No Cloths - Audience Suspends Disbelief False Claims
.....Suspend Disbelief to See How IBM Uses Technology to Make Money
..........Here's How I Make Money at IBM
.....No Productivity Improvement
6...OS2 & Windows 95 Application Support
.....Lotus Notes - Killer App
7...Killer Application - SDS, POIMS
Click here to comment!
SDS Marketing, Sales, Seminars, IBM TechCon, 951010, San Jose
Seminars, Lotus Notes & IBM, 910625
0604 - ..
0605 - Summary/Objective
060601 - Follow up ref SDS 17 0000, ref SDS 15 0000.
060603 - Steve Mills presented IBM's vision and progress on future technology.
060604 - It revealed no advances in management productivity; there was no
060605 - discussion on Lotus Notes. An IBM rep in the exhibit hall demoed LN,
060606 - stated it is a long way from automating the management cycle. Could
060607 - not find a Testing Lab advertised in the event announcement.
060610 - ..
0609 - Analysis
061001 - Steve Mills
061003 - Steve was introduced as IBM's VP and General Manager in charge of
061004 - software solutions for business. His delivery was brilliant, but the
061005 - content was inadequate for the title of the presentation, something
061006 - along the lines:
061008 - Technology for the 21st Century
061010 - ..
061011 - Steve said IBM is producing automated tools to meet the challenge of
061012 - the 21st century. He framed the challenge as increased competition
061013 - reflected by continued downsizing and faster time to market
061014 - conditions. I believe he mentioned the Information Highway, but not
061015 - in connection with the increased risk posed by greater volumes and
061016 - flows of information.
061019 - ..
061020 - Stumbling Toward a Future that is Rushing Toward Us
061022 - IBM does not understand the central challenge of the 21st century,
061023 - ref OF 1 line 526, discussed with Intel on 950927, ref SDS 18
061024 - 2867, and explained to IBM last year at COMDEX, ref SDS 10 1321.
061025 - As a result, IBM's products can only meet that challenge by
061026 - accident of someone stumbling onto a useful configuration, i.e.,
061027 - automated integration of time, information, people and documents,
061028 - cited by Carol Stafford in her letter on 940825. ref DRP 1 0870
061030 - [See "creeping toward the future" discussed with Morris later
061031 - in the day ref SDS 20 line 299.]
061034 - ..
061035 - Taking the "Quantum Leap"
061037 - Steve did not deal directly with the need for executives to experiment
061038 - in order to find solutions for the 21st century that minimize impacts
061039 - of culture shock by transitioning to new business practices that rely
061040 - on new tools for the 21st century rather than current practices that
061041 - evolved in a manual world.
061043 - This was raised with Intel at ref SDS 18 line 679 and ref SDS 18
061044 - line 770.
061047 - ..
061048 - IBM's Management Solutions - "Cyber" Library Search
061050 - Steve used technical assistants to show how a software program
061051 - that runs under os2 can combine video, voice recogintion and
061052 - graphical zooming capability to locate information in a...
061054 - ..
061055 - library without walls
061057 - ..
061058 - They called this "virtual" and "cyber" capability of some kind.
061060 - ..
061061 - IBM's demo program showed a caricature of a woman identified with
061062 - a man's name, "Wayne," who scrolled across the screen, as the
061063 - technician used the program to find information about "stars and
061064 - planets."
061066 - [On 960708 Stanford's CIFE program seems to extend this
061067 - capability for system design, claims and litigation support.
061068 - ref SDS 25 7345]
061070 - ..
061071 - [On 000217 graphical zooming capability cited as supporting
061072 - knowledge management. ref SDS 30 4350]
061075 - ..
061076 - Collaboration
061078 - Steve or his colleague did mention something about "connecting
061079 - with other people." So they may have been trying to illustrate
061080 - how people can remotely join an on-line library search, perhaps to
061081 - view and discuss information in a document. This could be
061082 - slightly helpful, but since it is small a part of daily management
061083 - work, it does not add anything to earnings, per analysis at Intel
061084 - on 970927. ref SDS 18 4218 How often does Lou call Steve, or does
061085 - Steve call Dick and say...
061088 - "Hey, can you come in here and look at this document with me?"
061091 - ..
061092 - Technology for Better Management Save Time Money Lives
061094 - Steve said the demonstration today shows efficiencies of
061095 - electronic records management which IBM technologies will achieve
061096 - by integrating voice, video and text. This reflects objectives
061097 - cited by Carrol last year for upgrading IBM's PROFS mail system,
061098 - ref SDS 7 6833, and her letter ref DRP 1 0001 What we saw today,
061099 - did not seem like it could help Lou and Steve or Carol improve
061100 - earnings at IBM, except by selling it to others for entertainment.
061101 - ref SDS 18 4005 The audience seemed to feel the graphics were
061102 - impressive, and responded in various ways to the girl named
061103 - "Wayne."
061106 - ..
061107 - Productivity Testing
061109 - Steve did not cite any studies or testing data to support how this
061110 - capability will or has improved productivity relative to existing
061111 - processes. A system like this was reported to be 80% complete for
061112 - internal use at IBM in Dec 1993, ref SDS 3 5006, so two years
061113 - later why can't IBM show how it is improving earnings at IBM?
061116 - ..
061117 - Poor Performance???
061119 - The computer likely used a Pentium microprocessor, but graphics
061120 - were very, very, slow. Steve said they were searching a large
061121 - data base on a CD, or possibly via modem, but the graphics slowed
061122 - the thing way too much for an executive to use to manage daily
061123 - work.
061126 - ..
061127 - IBM's 2nd Idea - Finding a Song
061129 - They showed another application to find a song to support a TV
061130 - commercial. This was innane. The implication is that this can be
061131 - applied in other ways that may be helpful. Why not bite the
061132 - bullet and show that. Show us how Steve or Lou uses this program
061133 - to make money at IBM.
061135 - ..
061136 - Why is it so difficult for people to recognize that this kind of
061137 - thing does not improve management productivity? We can send
061138 - someone to a library to do it. This is a one shot deal.
061141 - ..
061142 - Useful Automation Criteria - POIMS
061144 - People need help finding three (3) concerns the boss presented in
061145 - a meeting last week, customer requests from a phone call 20
061146 - minutes ago, the meeting notes from yesterday, last month and last
061147 - year, along with the contract, the company policy and the e-mail
061148 - from two days ago, see for example work at PG&E on 941211.
061149 - ref SDS 11 7388
061151 - ..
061152 - Lack of precision access to the record delays work, causes endless
061153 - error that reduces productivity, lowering earnings. Nobody can
061154 - find anything in time to be effective. ref OF 1 0645 People sit
061155 - around speculating, arguing about what transpired, pointing
061156 - figures in blame and accusation, only to wind up winging it by
061157 - relying on assumption remembering the gist of the story. (see
061158 - again NWO, ref OF 1 9448 Then days, weeks, months, years later
061159 - everything crashes and we spend more time wrangling over who said
061160 - what, getting geared up to fix mistakes uisng the same process
061161 - that causes more mistakes, reported on 921127. ref SDS 2 0674
061163 - [On 970721 people angry point fingers in accusation and
061164 - blame everybody remembers differently cannot point to
061165 - record of accurate history productivity meetings Intel and
061166 - Lockheed falls give up on communications. ref SDS 27 0896
061169 - ..
061170 - Emperor Wore No Cloths - Audience Suspends Disbelief False Claims
061171 - Suspend Disbelief to See How IBM Uses Technology to Make Money
061173 - Steve could have supported his announcement of 21st century
061174 - technology by showing attendees how he uses automation to do his
061175 - job and sharing IBM's plans to help him do a better job in the
061176 - future, as Dave Vannier did at Intel on 950927. ref SDS 18 8943
061177 - Only by suspending disbelief can the audience accept IBM's claims,
061178 - or anyone else's, that automation is improving management, until
061179 - and unless Steve gets up there and says...
061181 - [On 011102 Larry Prusak reports history of Knowledge
061182 - Management consultants looking for another name to sell
061183 - previous empty promises. ref SDS 32 OB7K
061185 - ..
061186 - [On 040621 selling tickets to professional seminar
061187 - offering conversation on using conversation for
061188 - communication that everybody already knows is 90% of daily
061189 - life - another Rube Goldberg, Emporer Wore No Clothes
061190 - empty marketing initiative which requires people to
061191 - suspend disbelief to acquire belief in what everybody
061192 - already believes. ref SDS 33 2U4W
061195 - ..
061196 - Here's How I Make Money at IBM
061198 - See here I discovered this opportunity and gave so and so
061199 - these instructions, and here is where they were carried out.
061200 - Here is how I got information in time on an important matter.
061201 - Here is a report to Lou on his questions about marketing
061202 - plans and development schedules. Here is a misunderstanding
061203 - I fixed to avoid a mistake. Here is my task to follow up to
061204 - make sure it gets done as I intend. See how it is linked
061205 - back to the problem and all the information to do the work?
061207 - ..
061208 - Here are our earnings. We can help you do the same.
061210 - [Scope of Communication Engineer. ref SDS 22 8976
061212 - [Executive mindset on 960227. ref SDS 23 2004
061214 - [Asilomar Conference on 960715. ref SDS 26 1552
061216 - ..
061217 - Why should anyone believe Steve is helped by IBM's products when
061218 - he has an assistant chasing a woman named "Wayne" around on a
061219 - computer screen full of pictures to get information on stars and
061220 - planets? If IBM, Microsoft and Lotus cannot help their own people
061221 - do their work, how can they help anyone else?
061223 - [On 951011 "Cloths with no Emporer." ref SDS 20 0080
061225 - ..
061226 - [On 951022 CNN report drop in IBM stock price ref SDS 21 3333
061229 - ..
061230 - Lotus Notes
061232 - After Steve's presentation I asked where we can see Lotus Notes which
061233 - IBM recently bought for $4 billion, ref SDS 13 0000, and so presumably
061234 - it is in their plans for the future. Steve referred me to Andrew
061235 - Clark standing next to him. Andrew said Lotus Notes is IBM's solution
061236 - for today. He said attendees can see it and discuss deployment with
061237 - representatives in the Exhibit Hall. Andrew gave directions on how to
061238 - find the Lotus Notes booth.
061240 - ..
061241 - I went to the Exhibit Hall. Met Ed Elze at IBM's main presentation
061242 - booth, just inside the main entry doors. Ed is the Marketing Program
061243 - Manager for IBM's Personal Software Products Division.
061244 - ..
061245 - He said there is no specific exhibit for Lotus Notes. He said
061246 - Lotus has a booth, but they are not demonstrating Lotus Notes.
061247 - ..
061248 - Ed said he has LN on his computer and offered to demonstrate it.
061249 - He opened Lotus Notes on a Thinkpad computer and while it was loading,
061250 - we discussed his management practice.
061252 - ..
061253 - Ed said he has been using Lotus Notes for two years.
061255 - ..
061256 - I asked how much of his work day he spends using LN, 80%, 50%, 20%?
061258 - ..
061259 - Ed said he uses LN about 5% of his work week, i.e., not even daily.
061261 - ..
061262 - He feels it is not a significant factor in his earning capacity.
061264 - This aligns with John Prial's report on 950105. ref SDS 12 MP4M
061266 - Earlier on 940519 Marge Dodge with IBM indicated LN does not have
061267 - management support capability. ref SDS 4 0770
061269 - [On 960502 LN not effective in the military, Richard.
061270 - ref SDS 24 6883
061272 - ..
061273 - [On 970617 Bill Gates argues LN not a good investment for IBM.
061274 - ref SDS 28 7493
061276 - ..
061277 - [On 001130 IBM gave trying to get LN to support Knowledge
061278 - Management. ref SDS 31 F26K
061279 - ..
061280 - I asked if his work practice is unique, for example how much
061281 - time does his boss use Lotus Notes? What about colleagues, friends?
061282 - Ed said nobody he knows uses LN anymore than he does, but new
061283 - applications are in development.
061285 - This supports analysis of report in USN&WR on IBM's purchase
061286 - of Lotus, ref SDS 13 0000, and appears to conflict with the
061287 - idea that people "hang out" on Lotus Notes, ref SDS 13 5005.
061290 - ..
061291 - Replication
061293 - I explained my understanding from Morris that LN may be able to
061294 - accomplish a very useful task of automatically updating the SDS
061295 - data base to remote locations across a LAN or via modem.
061297 - Ed said LN cannot do this. He showed how the replicate feature
061298 - can update files on his computer. He opened a directory and
061299 - pointed to a file, then clicked on a menu option that listed
061300 - "Replicate." He said that if he were connected to a modem that
061301 - was logged onto a server, then the Replicate function would check
061302 - to see if his file was newer or older than the version on the
061303 - server, and if it is older, then the version on the server would
061304 - be downloaded to his computer, updating this particular file.
061305 - ..
061306 - When I met with Morris later in the day, I mentioned
061307 - these understandings. Morris said LN can replicate
061308 - "automatically" but Chips uses a better program. ref SDS 20
061309 - 6110 So there is a conflict in the record.
061312 - ..
061313 - No Productivity Improvement
061315 - I asked Ed's opinion about how Lotus Notes accomplishes Jim
061316 - Manzi's goal set out in his Nov 1992 Byte article, to improve
061317 - management productivity, ref SDS 1 0000?
061319 - Ed said that Jim resigned today as president of Lotus Development
061320 - Corporation.
061322 - ..
061323 - I mentioned Tom Landauer's book, "The Trouble with Computers"
061324 - where Tom cites evidence that personal computers have not improved
061325 - personal or organizational productivity, ref SDS 14 1222.
061327 - ..
061328 - Ed said Lotus Notes is not intended to improve management
061329 - productivity, but it does manage documents well. This aligns with
061330 - John Prial's report on 950105, ref SDS 12 MP4M, and with comments
061331 - by Marge Dodge on 940519. ref SDS 4 0770
061333 - [On 960502 LN not effective in the military, Richard.
061334 - ref SDS 24 6883
061336 - ..
061337 - [On 970617 Bill Gates argues LN not a good investment for IBM.
061338 - ref SDS 28 7493
061340 - ..
061341 - [On 990213 LN is promoting Knowledge Management, a new name for
061342 - document management. ref SDS 29 6336]
061344 - ..
061345 - [On 001130 IBM gave trying to get LN to support Knowledge
061346 - Management. ref SDS 31 F26K
061347 - ..
061348 - I asked to see how LN does this. I asked for a list of
061349 - documents Jim or his organization has issued for which they are
061350 - owed a response? Jim said LN does not have that feature, but it
061351 - could be created. I asked to see a list of documents he has
061352 - received for which he owes a response. Ed said LN does not do that
061353 - either. I asked for a list of subjects for managing documents.
061354 - Jim said he thinks LN can do this, but he hasn't had time to
061355 - develop that feature. He said new applications are being created
061356 - all the time for LN.
061358 - This record leaves open the question of what "document
061359 - management" means? What does LN do for documents that is
061360 - helpful?
061363 - ..
061365 - ..
061366 - Speech Recognition
061368 - Steve said in his remarks that IBM or others have achieved 70 words
061369 - per minute and next year this will be increased to about 140 words per
061370 - minute. He feels this supports IBMs strategy to integrate voice,
061371 - audio and visual media with text, which was cited last year as IBM's
061372 - answer to SDS, ref SDS 7 line 132.
061374 - ..
061375 - However, I could not find in the Exhibit Hall any applications or
061376 - demonstrations of current capability or even beta versions that
061377 - support Steve's claim. This reflects the claims made last year at the
061378 - IBM Pathways to Growth event in San Francisco, and ultimate refusal by
061379 - IBM's local reps to demonstrate this capability, ref SDS 6 line 227
061380 - and later at ref SDS 9 line 34.
061384 - ..
061386 - ..
061387 - OS2 & Windows 95 Application Support
061389 - I asked Ed how IBM plans to compete for the office desktop computer
061390 - market in the face of Windows 95 (W95) and DEC's move to deploy
061391 - Windows NT on the Alpha computer, per ref SDS 19 line 180.
061393 - Ed drew a diagram (that branched left and right) and explained how the
061394 - desktop market is dividing with the introduction of W95. He said IBM
061395 - will include in OS2 about 80% of the "APIs" needed to run new
061396 - applications for W95. He said one part of the three (3) software
061397 - design elements are the hardest to replicate in Os2. He said IBM
061398 - offers "DAX" (or possibly "DAC") to enable software developers to
061399 - write versions of their W95 programs for os2.
061400 - ..
061401 - I asked how IBM plans to encourage software vendors to support
061402 - Os2 when 90% - 95% of the market place will be using W95. Why would a
061403 - vendor make even a 20% investment to access 5% - 10% of the market.
061405 - ..
061406 - Ed seemed to indicate that, like DEC, ref SDS 19 line 325, IBM plans
061407 - to c<0625
061408 - to compete vigorously for the desktop market, so that os2 has a
061409 - greater share than forecasters presently anticipate. If it can
061410 - increase its market share above 20% based on superior performance of
061411 - os2 relative to w95, then vendors will have an inducement to make the
061412 - 20% effort to support os2. Otherwise, IBM must find a way to lower
061413 - the effort needed to make W95 programs run on os2.
061415 - ..
061417 - ..
061418 - Lotus Notes - Killer App
061420 - Ed did not state expressly, but it seems likely that part of IBM's
061421 - strategy to remain competitive was the purchase of Lotus. This
061422 - ensures that a mainstream vendor will support os2, giving IBM a
061423 - sales point in its marketing efforts. Additionally, since Lotus
061424 - has created a w95 version of its flagship product Lotus 123, this
061425 - in-house expertise can be applied to offer buyers a full slate of
061426 - products to run on os2 that are comparable to new versions of
061427 - programs that run on w95. Lotus Notes likely figures in this
061428 - strategy. Though unmentioned in Steve's remarks about IBM's
061429 - plans, it is reported that IBM hopes Lotus Notes will be a major
061430 - draw for os2 market share, ref SDS 13 line 55.
061432 - [See "Killer App" below.]
061434 - ..
061435 - Market share of the operating system seems likely to be the most
061436 - important aspect of this competition, since it allows a vendor to sell
061437 - a lot of other support stuff. At least for the next few years, this
061438 - means os2 must support w95 applications. That is a major reason why
061439 - IBM paid $3.5 billion for an avenue to w95 compatibility.
061441 - ..
061442 - I mentioned my sense that IBM's best chance of success lies in the
061443 - overwhelming success of Microsoft. When this occurs, it is hard for
061444 - an organization to maintain its focus, intensity and quality of
061445 - performance, discussed at the DEC event yesterday, ref SDS 19 line
061446 - 337. IBM must of course stay in the game in order for a Microsoft
061447 - falter to matter. So its $3.5 billion bet on Lotus seems to indicate
061448 - the kind of commitment needed to do this. But it takes more than
061449 - buying a major player. You have to do the work day by day, like a
061450 - farmer tending the fields, in order to reap a better harvest.
061451 - ..
061452 - This is hard to do for a large organization, as evidenced by the
061453 - errors in IBM's planning of this event, and the event last year at the
061454 - Fairmont, ref SDS 5 line 162.
061457 - ..
061458 - Killer Application - SDS, POIMS
061460 - Another component of IBM's strategy should be to offer a new kind of
061461 - operating system to completely distinguish itself from Microsoft and
061462 - others by offering something everybody wants and needs, but only IBM
061463 - can offer, along the lines presented to Intel, an...
061466 - ..
061467 - Operating System for People and Organizations
061470 - ...per analysis at ref ref SDS 18 line 365, ref SDS 18 line 423
061471 - and at ref SDS 18 line 500. This idea was presented to IBM at
061472 - COMDEX last year, ref SDS 10 line 127. Dick Sullivan at that time
061473 - recognized its strength, ref SDS 10 line 182. Subsequently, the
061474 - work practices at IBM did not permit it to carry through. Since
061475 - an operating system for people and organizations is not yet in
061476 - place at IBM or anywhere else, IBM could not find its way through
061477 - the complex array of analysis and decisions needed to implement a
061478 - major technological advance in personal work practices.
061480 - ..
061481 - Instead, it appears IBM may expect in part that Lotus Notes can
061482 - accomplish this objective of providing a "Killer App" to draw market
061483 - share, ref SDS 13 line 55. Such view seems incorrect, however, for
061484 - the reasons cited by Ed Elze: Lotus Notes cannot be used by
061485 - executives to make money. See also analysis of USN&WR at ref SDS 13
061486 - line 64.
061488 - ..
061489 - A possible strategy would be to use LN to draw market share in the
061490 - near term while developing a true Operating System for People and
061491 - Organizations" for release in a year or so. Of course time is
061492 - slipping away under the analysis in Tom Landauer's book, ref SDS 14
061493 - line 604, and at ref SDS 18 line 397.
061495 - [Supported later by CNN report on investor worries, ref SDS 21
061496 - line 91.]
061500 - ..
061502 - ..
061503 - Testing Lab
061505 - When Andrew gave directions to a booth for Lotus Notes in the Exhibit
061506 - Hall (which turned out to be incorrect), I also asked about where to
061507 - find the testing lab cited in IBM's notice for the event, ref SDS 15
061508 - line 160.
061510 - ..
061511 - Andrew said IBM has a group of people from their Santa Terisa testing
061512 - Lab and that I can find it in the Exhibit Hall. I heard about this
061513 - lab when SDS was presented to IBM in 1994, ref SDS 8 line 255, and
061514 - reps said IBM was working on capability similar to SDS. So I wanted
061515 - to see what they have produced and hear their ideas.
061517 - ..
061518 - When I talked to Ed, he said he was unaware of a booth in the Exhibit
061519 - Hall for IBM's Testing Lab. He sent to me to another booth where IBM
061520 - was demonstrating os2. When I got there they were showing how to play
061521 - solitaire. There were a group of about 5 IBM people. I asked for
061522 - directions to the testing lab. Initially, everyone said they did not
061523 - know of it. Another customer happened to be standing near and he
061524 - showed the notice of a testing lab in IBM's documentation. Another
061525 - IBM rep came by at that time and said he thinks the lab is in the
061526 - center of the Exhibit Hall. I walked to that location but was unable
061527 - to find the lab.