CONTACTS 

SUBJECTS
SDS Marketing, Sales, Seminars, IBM TechCon, 951010, San Jose
Seminars, Lotus Notes & IBM, 910625

0604 -
0604 -    ..
0605 - Summary/Objective
0606 -
060601 - Follow up ref SDS 17 0000, ref SDS 15 0000.
060602 -
060603 - Steve Mills presented IBM's vision and progress on future technology.
060604 - It revealed no advances in management productivity; there was no
060605 - discussion on Lotus Notes.  An IBM rep in the exhibit hall demoed LN,
060606 - stated it is a long way from automating the management cycle.  Could
060607 - not find a Testing Lab advertised in the event announcement.
060608 -
060610 -  ..
0607 -
0608 -
0609 - Analysis
0610 -
061001 - Steve Mills
061002 -
061003 - Steve was introduced as IBM's VP and General Manager in charge of
061004 - software solutions for business.  His delivery was brilliant, but the
061005 - content was inadequate for the title of the presentation, something
061006 - along the lines:
061007 -
061008 -                  Technology for the 21st Century
061010 -  ..
061011 - Steve said IBM is producing automated tools to meet the challenge of
061012 - the 21st century.  He framed the challenge as increased competition
061013 - reflected by continued downsizing and faster time to market
061014 - conditions.  I believe he mentioned the Information Highway, but not
061015 - in connection with the increased risk posed by greater volumes and
061016 - flows of information.
061017 -
061019 -      ..
061020 -     Stumbling Toward a Future that is Rushing Toward Us
061021 -
061022 -     IBM does not understand the central challenge of the 21st century,
061023 -     ref OF 1 line 526, discussed with Intel on 950927, ref SDS 18
061024 -     2867, and explained to IBM last year at COMDEX, ref SDS 10 1321.
061025 -     As a result, IBM's products can only meet that challenge by
061026 -     accident of someone stumbling onto a useful configuration, i.e.,
061027 -     automated integration of time, information, people and documents,
061028 -     cited by Carol Stafford in her letter on 940825. ref DRP 1 0870
061029 -
061030 -        [See "creeping toward the future" discussed with Morris later
061031 -        in the day ref SDS 20 line 299.]
061032 -
061034 -  ..
061035 - Taking the "Quantum Leap"
061036 -
061037 - Steve did not deal directly with the need for executives to experiment
061038 - in order to find solutions for the 21st century that minimize impacts
061039 - of culture shock by transitioning to new business practices that rely
061040 - on new tools for the 21st century rather than current practices that
061041 - evolved in a manual world.
061042 -
061043 -     This was raised with Intel at ref SDS 18 line 679 and ref SDS 18
061044 -     line 770.
061045 -
061047 -      ..
061048 -     IBM's Management Solutions - "Cyber" Library Search
061049 -
061050 -     Steve used technical assistants to show how a software program
061051 -     that runs under os2 can combine video, voice recogintion and
061052 -     graphical zooming capability to locate information in a...
061054 -                          ..
061055 -                         library without walls
061057 -      ..
061058 -     They called this "virtual" and "cyber" capability of some kind.
061060 -      ..
061061 -     IBM's demo program showed a caricature of a woman identified with
061062 -     a man's name, "Wayne," who scrolled across the screen, as the
061063 -     technician used the program to find information about "stars and
061064 -     planets."
061065 -
061066 -         [On 960708 Stanford's CIFE program seems to extend this
061067 -         capability for system design, claims and litigation support.
061068 -         ref SDS 25 7345]
061070 -          ..
061071 -         [On 000217 graphical zooming capability cited as supporting
061072 -         knowledge management. ref SDS 30 4350]
061073 -
061075 -      ..
061076 -     Collaboration
061077 -
061078 -     Steve or his colleague did mention something about "connecting
061079 -     with other people."  So they may have been trying to illustrate
061080 -     how people can remotely join an on-line library search, perhaps to
061081 -     view and discuss information in a document.  This could be
061082 -     slightly helpful, but since it is small a part of daily management
061083 -     work, it does not add anything to earnings, per analysis at Intel
061084 -     on 970927. ref SDS 18 4218  How often does Lou call Steve, or does
061085 -     Steve call Dick and say...
061086 -
061087 -
061088 -        "Hey, can you come in here and look at this document with me?"
061089 -
061091 -      ..
061092 -     Technology for Better Management Save Time Money Lives
061093 -
061094 -     Steve said the demonstration today shows efficiencies of
061095 -     electronic records management which IBM technologies will achieve
061096 -     by integrating voice, video and text.  This reflects objectives
061097 -     cited by Carrol last year for upgrading IBM's PROFS mail system,
061098 -     ref SDS 7 6833, and her letter ref DRP 1 0001  What we saw today,
061099 -     did not seem like it could help Lou and Steve or Carol improve
061100 -     earnings at IBM, except by selling it to others for entertainment.
061101 -     ref SDS 18 4005  The audience seemed to feel the graphics were
061102 -     impressive, and responded in various ways to the girl named
061103 -     "Wayne."
061104 -
061106 -      ..
061107 -     Productivity Testing
061108 -
061109 -     Steve did not cite any studies or testing data to support how this
061110 -     capability will or has improved productivity relative to existing
061111 -     processes.  A system like this was reported to be 80% complete for
061112 -     internal use at IBM in Dec 1993, ref SDS 3 5006, so two years
061113 -     later why can't IBM show how it is improving earnings at IBM?
061114 -
061116 -      ..
061117 -     Poor Performance???
061118 -
061119 -     The computer likely used a Pentium microprocessor, but graphics
061120 -     were very, very, slow.  Steve said they were searching a large
061121 -     data base on a CD, or possibly via modem, but the graphics slowed
061122 -     the thing way too much for an executive to use to manage daily
061123 -     work.
061124 -
061126 -      ..
061127 -     IBM's 2nd Idea - Finding a Song
061128 -
061129 -     They showed another application to find a song to support a TV
061130 -     commercial.  This was innane.  The implication is that this can be
061131 -     applied in other ways that may be helpful.  Why not bite the
061132 -     bullet and show that.  Show us how Steve or Lou uses this program
061133 -     to make money at IBM.
061135 -      ..
061136 -     Why is it so difficult for people to recognize that this kind of
061137 -     thing does not improve management productivity?  We can send
061138 -     someone to a library to do it.  This is a one shot deal.
061139 -
061141 -      ..
061142 -     Useful Automation Criteria - POIMS
061143 -
061144 -     People need help finding three (3) concerns the boss presented in
061145 -     a meeting last week, customer requests from a phone call 20
061146 -     minutes ago, the meeting notes from yesterday, last month and last
061147 -     year, along with the contract, the company policy and the e-mail
061148 -     from two days ago, see for example work at PG&E on 941211.
061149 -     ref SDS 11 7388
061151 -      ..
061152 -     Lack of precision access to the record delays work, causes endless
061153 -     error that reduces productivity, lowering earnings.  Nobody can
061154 -     find anything in time to be effective. ref OF 1 0645  People sit
061155 -     around speculating, arguing about what transpired, pointing
061156 -     figures in blame and accusation, only to wind up winging it by
061157 -     relying on assumption remembering the gist of the story. (see
061158 -     again NWO, ref OF 1 9448  Then days, weeks, months, years later
061159 -     everything crashes and we spend more time wrangling over who said
061160 -     what, getting geared up to fix mistakes uisng the same process
061161 -     that causes more mistakes, reported on 921127. ref SDS 2 0674
061162 -
061163 -             [On 970721 people angry point fingers in accusation and
061164 -             blame everybody remembers differently cannot point to
061165 -             record of accurate history productivity meetings Intel and
061166 -             Lockheed falls give up on communications. ref SDS 27 0896
061167 -
061169 -      ..
061170 -     Emperor Wore No Cloths - Audience Suspends Disbelief False Claims
061171 -     Suspend Disbelief to See How IBM Uses Technology to Make Money
061172 -
061173 -     Steve could have supported his announcement of 21st century
061174 -     technology by showing attendees how he uses automation to do his
061175 -     job and sharing IBM's plans to help him do a better job in the
061176 -     future, as Dave Vannier did at Intel on 950927. ref SDS 18 8943
061177 -     Only by suspending disbelief can the audience accept IBM's claims,
061178 -     or anyone else's, that automation is improving management, until
061179 -     and unless Steve gets up there and says...
061180 -
061181 -             [On 011102 Larry Prusak reports history of Knowledge
061182 -             Management consultants looking for another name to sell
061183 -             previous empty promises. ref SDS 32 OB7K
061185 -              ..
061186 -             [On 040621 selling tickets to professional seminar
061187 -             offering conversation on using conversation for
061188 -             communication that everybody already knows is 90% of daily
061189 -             life - another Rube Goldberg, Emporer Wore No Clothes
061190 -             empty marketing initiative which requires people to
061191 -             suspend disbelief to acquire belief in what everybody
061192 -             already believes. ref SDS 33 2U4W
061193 -
061195 -           ..
061196 -          Here's How I Make Money at IBM
061197 -
061198 -          See here I discovered this opportunity and gave so and so
061199 -          these instructions, and here is where they were carried out.
061200 -          Here is how I got information in time on an important matter.
061201 -          Here is a report to Lou on his questions about marketing
061202 -          plans and development schedules.  Here is a misunderstanding
061203 -          I fixed to avoid a mistake.  Here is my task to follow up to
061204 -          make sure it gets done as I intend.  See how it is linked
061205 -          back to the problem and all the information to do the work?
061207 -           ..
061208 -          Here are our earnings. We can help you do the same.
061209 -
061210 -            [Scope of Communication Engineer. ref SDS 22 8976
061211 -
061212 -            [Executive mindset on 960227. ref SDS 23 2004
061213 -
061214 -            [Asilomar Conference on 960715. ref SDS 26 1552
061216 -      ..
061217 -     Why should anyone believe Steve is helped by IBM's products when
061218 -     he has an assistant chasing a woman named "Wayne" around on a
061219 -     computer screen full of pictures to get information on stars and
061220 -     planets?  If IBM, Microsoft and Lotus cannot help their own people
061221 -     do their work, how can they help anyone else?
061222 -
061223 -          [On 951011 "Cloths with no Emporer." ref SDS 20 0080
061225 -           ..
061226 -          [On 951022 CNN report drop in IBM stock price ref SDS 21 3333
061227 -
061229 -  ..
061230 - Lotus Notes
061231 -
061232 - After Steve's presentation I asked where we can see Lotus Notes which
061233 - IBM recently bought for $4 billion, ref SDS 13 0000, and so presumably
061234 - it is in their plans for the future.  Steve referred me to Andrew
061235 - Clark standing next to him.  Andrew said Lotus Notes is IBM's solution
061236 - for today.  He said attendees can see it and discuss deployment with
061237 - representatives in the Exhibit Hall.  Andrew gave directions on how to
061238 - find the Lotus Notes booth.
061240 -  ..
061241 - I went to the Exhibit Hall.  Met Ed Elze at IBM's main presentation
061242 - booth, just inside the main entry doors.  Ed is the Marketing Program
061243 - Manager for IBM's Personal Software Products Division.
061244 - ..
061245 - He said there is no specific exhibit for Lotus Notes.  He said
061246 - Lotus has a booth, but they are not demonstrating Lotus Notes.
061247 - ..
061248 - Ed said he has LN on his computer and offered to demonstrate it.
061249 - He opened Lotus Notes on a Thinkpad computer and while it was loading,
061250 - we discussed his management practice.
061252 -  ..
061253 - Ed said he has been using Lotus Notes for two years.
061255 -  ..
061256 - I asked how much of his work day he spends using LN, 80%, 50%, 20%?
061258 -  ..
061259 - Ed said he uses LN about 5% of his work week, i.e., not even daily.
061261 -  ..
061262 - He feels it is not a significant factor in his earning capacity.
061263 -
061264 -     This aligns with John Prial's report on 950105. ref SDS 12 MP4M
061265 -
061266 -     Earlier on 940519 Marge Dodge with IBM indicated LN does not have
061267 -     management support capability. ref SDS 4 0770
061268 -
061269 -        [On 960502 LN not effective in the military, Richard.
061270 -        ref SDS 24 6883
061272 -         ..
061273 -        [On 970617 Bill Gates argues LN not a good investment for IBM.
061274 -        ref SDS 28 7493
061276 -         ..
061277 -        [On 001130 IBM gave trying to get LN to support Knowledge
061278 -        Management. ref SDS 31 F26K
061279 - ..
061280 - I asked if his work practice is unique, for example how much
061281 - time does his boss use Lotus Notes?  What about colleagues, friends?
061282 - Ed said nobody he knows uses LN anymore than he does, but new
061283 - applications are in development.
061284 -
061285 -         This supports analysis of report in USN&WR on IBM's purchase
061286 -         of Lotus, ref SDS 13 0000, and appears to conflict with the
061287 -         idea that people "hang out" on Lotus Notes, ref SDS 13 5005.
061288 -
061290 -      ..
061291 -     Replication
061292 -
061293 -     I explained my understanding from Morris that LN may be able to
061294 -     accomplish a very useful task of automatically updating the SDS
061295 -     data base to remote locations across a LAN or via modem.
061296 -
061297 -     Ed said LN cannot do this.  He showed how the replicate feature
061298 -     can update files on his computer.  He opened a directory and
061299 -     pointed to a file, then clicked on a menu option that listed
061300 -     "Replicate."  He said that if he were connected to a modem that
061301 -     was logged onto a server, then the Replicate function would check
061302 -     to see if his file was newer or older than the version on the
061303 -     server, and if it is older, then the version on the server would
061304 -     be downloaded to his computer, updating this particular file.
061305 -          ..
061306 -          When I met with Morris later in the day, I mentioned
061307 -          these understandings.  Morris said LN can replicate
061308 -          "automatically" but Chips uses a better program. ref SDS 20
061309 -          6110  So there is a conflict in the record.
061310 -
061312 -      ..
061313 -     No Productivity Improvement
061314 -
061315 -     I asked Ed's opinion about how Lotus Notes accomplishes Jim
061316 -     Manzi's goal set out in his Nov 1992 Byte article, to improve
061317 -     management productivity, ref SDS 1 0000?
061318 -
061319 -     Ed said that Jim resigned today as president of Lotus Development
061320 -     Corporation.
061322 -      ..
061323 -     I mentioned Tom Landauer's book, "The Trouble with Computers"
061324 -     where Tom cites evidence that personal computers have not improved
061325 -     personal or organizational productivity, ref SDS 14 1222.
061327 -      ..
061328 -     Ed said Lotus Notes is not intended to improve management
061329 -     productivity, but it does manage documents well.  This aligns with
061330 -     John Prial's report on 950105, ref SDS 12 MP4M, and with comments
061331 -     by Marge Dodge on 940519. ref SDS 4 0770
061332 -
061333 -        [On 960502 LN not effective in the military, Richard.
061334 -        ref SDS 24 6883
061336 -         ..
061337 -        [On 970617 Bill Gates argues LN not a good investment for IBM.
061338 -        ref SDS 28 7493
061340 -         ..
061341 -        [On 990213 LN is promoting Knowledge Management, a new name for
061342 -        document management. ref SDS 29 6336]
061344 -         ..
061345 -        [On 001130 IBM gave trying to get LN to support Knowledge
061346 -        Management. ref SDS 31 F26K
061347 -     ..
061348 -     I asked to see how LN does this.  I asked for a list of
061349 -     documents Jim or his organization has issued for which they are
061350 -     owed a response?  Jim said LN does not have that feature, but it
061351 -     could be created.  I asked to see a list of documents he has
061352 -     received for which he owes a response. Ed said LN does not do that
061353 -     either.  I asked for a list of subjects for managing documents.
061354 -     Jim said he thinks LN can do this, but he hasn't had time to
061355 -     develop that feature. He said new applications are being created
061356 -     all the time for LN.
061357 -
061358 -         This record leaves open the question of what "document
061359 -         management" means?  What does LN do for documents that is
061360 -         helpful?
061361 -
061363 -  ..
061365 -  ..
061366 - Speech Recognition
061367 -
061368 - Steve said in his remarks that IBM or others have achieved 70 words
061369 - per minute and next year this will be increased to about 140 words per
061370 - minute.  He feels this supports IBMs strategy to integrate voice,
061371 - audio and visual media with text, which was cited last year as IBM's
061372 - answer to SDS, ref SDS 7 line 132.
061374 -  ..
061375 - However, I could not find in the Exhibit Hall any applications or
061376 - demonstrations of current capability or even beta versions that
061377 - support Steve's claim.  This reflects the claims made last year at the
061378 - IBM Pathways to Growth event in San Francisco, and ultimate refusal by
061379 - IBM's local reps to demonstrate this capability, ref SDS 6 line 227
061380 - and later at ref SDS 9 line 34.
061381 -
061382 -
061384 -  ..
061386 -  ..
061387 - OS2 & Windows 95 Application Support
061388 -
061389 - I asked Ed how IBM plans to compete for the office desktop computer
061390 - market in the face of Windows 95 (W95) and DEC's move to deploy
061391 - Windows NT on the Alpha computer, per ref SDS 19 line 180.
061392 -
061393 - Ed drew a diagram (that branched left and right) and explained how the
061394 - desktop market is dividing with the introduction of W95.  He said IBM
061395 - will include in OS2 about 80% of the "APIs" needed to run new
061396 - applications for W95.  He said one part of the three (3) software
061397 - design elements are the hardest to replicate in Os2.  He said IBM
061398 - offers "DAX" (or possibly "DAC") to enable software developers to
061399 - write versions of their W95 programs for os2.
061400 - ..
061401 - I asked how IBM plans to encourage software vendors to support
061402 - Os2 when 90% - 95% of the market place will be using W95.  Why would a
061403 - vendor make even a 20% investment to access 5% - 10% of the market.
061405 -  ..
061406 - Ed seemed to indicate that, like DEC, ref SDS 19 line 325, IBM plans
061407 - to c<0625
061408 - to compete vigorously for the desktop market, so that os2 has a
061409 - greater share than forecasters presently anticipate.  If it can
061410 - increase its market share above 20% based on superior performance of
061411 - os2 relative to w95, then vendors will have an inducement to make the
061412 - 20% effort to support os2.  Otherwise, IBM must find a way to lower
061413 - the effort needed to make W95 programs run on os2.
061415 -  ..
061417 -      ..
061418 -     Lotus Notes - Killer App
061419 -
061420 -     Ed did not state expressly, but it seems likely that part of IBM's
061421 -     strategy to remain competitive was the purchase of Lotus.  This
061422 -     ensures that a mainstream vendor will support os2, giving IBM a
061423 -     sales point in its marketing efforts.  Additionally, since Lotus
061424 -     has created a w95 version of its flagship product Lotus 123, this
061425 -     in-house expertise can be applied to offer buyers a full slate of
061426 -     products to run on os2 that are comparable to new versions of
061427 -     programs that run on w95.  Lotus Notes likely figures in this
061428 -     strategy.  Though unmentioned in Steve's remarks about IBM's
061429 -     plans, it is reported that IBM hopes Lotus Notes will be a major
061430 -     draw for os2 market share, ref SDS 13 line 55.
061431 -
061432 -          [See "Killer App" below.]
061433 -
061434 - ..
061435 - Market share of the operating system seems likely to be the most
061436 - important aspect of this competition, since it allows a vendor to sell
061437 - a lot of other support stuff.  At least for the next few years, this
061438 - means os2 must support w95 applications.  That is a major reason why
061439 - IBM paid $3.5 billion for an avenue to w95 compatibility.
061441 -  ..
061442 - I mentioned my sense that IBM's best chance of success lies in the
061443 - overwhelming success of Microsoft.  When this occurs, it is hard for
061444 - an organization to maintain its focus, intensity and quality of
061445 - performance, discussed at the DEC event yesterday, ref SDS 19 line
061446 - 337.  IBM must of course stay in the game in order for a Microsoft
061447 - falter to matter.  So its $3.5 billion bet on Lotus seems to indicate
061448 - the kind of commitment needed to do this.  But it takes more than
061449 - buying a major player.  You have to do the work day by day, like a
061450 - farmer tending the fields, in order to reap a better harvest.
061451 - ..
061452 - This is hard to do for a large organization, as evidenced by the
061453 - errors in IBM's planning of this event, and the event last year at the
061454 - Fairmont, ref SDS 5 line 162.
061455 -
061457 -  ..
061458 - Killer Application - SDS, POIMS
061459 -
061460 - Another component of IBM's strategy should be to offer a new kind of
061461 - operating system to completely distinguish itself from Microsoft and
061462 - others by offering something everybody wants and needs, but only IBM
061463 - can offer, along the lines presented to Intel, an...
061464 -
061466 -               ..
061467 -              Operating System for People and Organizations
061468 -
061469 -
061470 -     ...per analysis at ref ref SDS 18 line 365, ref SDS 18 line 423
061471 -     and at ref SDS 18 line 500.  This idea was presented to IBM at
061472 -     COMDEX last year, ref SDS 10 line 127.  Dick Sullivan at that time
061473 -     recognized its strength, ref SDS 10 line 182.  Subsequently, the
061474 -     work practices at IBM did not permit it to carry through.  Since
061475 -     an operating system for people and organizations is not yet in
061476 -     place at IBM or anywhere else, IBM could not find its way through
061477 -     the complex array of analysis and decisions needed to implement a
061478 -     major technological advance in personal work practices.
061479 -
061480 - ..
061481 - Instead, it appears IBM may expect in part that Lotus Notes can
061482 - accomplish this objective of providing a "Killer App" to draw market
061483 - share, ref SDS 13 line 55.  Such view seems incorrect, however, for
061484 - the reasons cited by Ed Elze:  Lotus Notes cannot be used by
061485 - executives to make money.  See also analysis of USN&WR at ref SDS 13
061486 - line 64.
061488 -  ..
061489 - A possible strategy would be to use LN to draw market share in the
061490 - near term while developing a true Operating System for People and
061491 - Organizations" for release in a year or so.  Of course time is
061492 - slipping away under the analysis in Tom Landauer's book, ref SDS 14
061493 - line 604, and at ref SDS 18 line 397.
061494 -
061495 -       [Supported later by CNN report on investor worries, ref SDS 21
061496 -       line 91.]
061497 -
061498 -
061500 -  ..
061502 -  ..
061503 - Testing Lab
061504 -
061505 - When Andrew gave directions to a booth for Lotus Notes in the Exhibit
061506 - Hall (which turned out to be incorrect), I also asked about where to
061507 - find the testing lab cited in IBM's notice for the event, ref SDS 15
061508 - line 160.
061510 -  ..
061511 - Andrew said IBM has a group of people from their Santa Terisa testing
061512 - Lab and that I can find it in the Exhibit Hall.  I heard about this
061513 - lab when SDS was presented to IBM in 1994, ref SDS 8 line 255, and
061514 - reps said IBM was working on capability similar to SDS.  So I wanted
061515 - to see what they have produced and hear their ideas.
061517 -  ..
061518 - When I talked to Ed, he said he was unaware of a booth in the Exhibit
061519 - Hall for IBM's Testing Lab.  He sent to me to another booth where IBM
061520 - was demonstrating os2.  When I got there they were showing how to play
061521 - solitaire.  There were a group of about 5 IBM people.  I asked for
061522 - directions to the testing lab.  Initially, everyone said they did not
061523 - know of it.  Another customer happened to be standing near and he
061524 - showed the notice of a testing lab in IBM's documentation.  Another
061525 - IBM rep came by at that time and said he thinks the lab is in the
061526 - center of the Exhibit Hall.  I walked to that location but was unable
061527 - to find the lab.
061528 -
061529 -
0616 -