THE WELCH COMPANY
440 Davis Court #1602
San Francisco, CA 94111-2496
415 781 5700
rodwelch@pacbell.net
S U M M A R Y
DIARY: March 2, 2000 10:25 PM Thursday;
Rod Welch
Colloquium reviews challenge gaining acceptance of DKR capability.
1...Summary/Objective
2...Engelbart's Ideas Resisted by Dynamics of Organizational Culture
3...Cultural Resists Change to Avoid Risks of Unproven Methods
4...Sunshine Profits Mask Need for Continual Improvement
.....Facilities Layout Impacts Productivity of Knowledge Work
5...Pilot Testing Needed to Demonstrate Cost Benefits New Capability
6...Improved Management Methods Specified to Develop Experience Base
.....Improvement Assessed Based on Cost/Benefit Risk Analysis
.........Ignorance, Fear, Denial Make Improving Management a Miracle
.....Small Improvements Compound into Big Productivity Gains
.........Focus on Near-Term Time Saved Reduces Productivity, Income
.........Small Mistakes Also Compound, Proactive Risk Management
.....Pilot Testing Demonstrates Capability, Improves DKR
.....Implement DKR on Small Scale with Available Capability
7...Paperless Office, Still a Dream in the Mainstream
8...Paradigm Shifts Require Confluence of Forces to Coales
9...Executives Need Technology to Think, Remember and Communicate
10...Core Capability Knowledge Management is Intelligence
11...Language Technology Augments Human Thinking, Intelligence
12...Case Studies Organized According to Lessons Learned
13...Knowledge Management Lifts Collective IQ, Expands OHS Concept
.....FGP Srives to Automate Human Capabilities (AI)
.....Gelertner Research on Fetch, Generalize and Project
.....Emotion Function Indexes Loosely Associated Concepts
..............
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CONTACTS
SUBJECTS
Improving Improvement, Continual Learning
Bootstrap Strategy, Over-Shoulder Training, 000227
Competence Challenged by Com Metrics
Accountability Caused by Writing Talking Gives Deniability Get Credit
Culture Resists Integrating Separate Functions
Attitude Makes Resistance to Communication Metrics Emotional
Fixing Small Problems is Psychologically Unattractive, Seems Not Cost
Management Improvement Miracle Intelligence Incredible
Improved Results by Individuals, 000227
1211 -
1211 - ..
1212 - Summary/Objective
1213 -
121301 - Follow up, ref SDS 70 0000, ref SDS 68 0000.
121303 - ..
121304 - Eugene Kim explores the role of facilities design for improving
121305 - prodictivity in relation to the ABC augment model. ref SDS 0 1271 He
121306 - recalls a Colloquium presentation that DKR application will rest on
121307 - cost benefit analysis, ref SDS 0 4864 and therefore a successful
121308 - strategy is to seek approval of pilot testing for modest productivity
121309 - improvements. ref SDS 0 0896 An example from the software industry
121310 - shows small improvements that reduce compiling time, yield big
121311 - productivity gains from compounding effect of repeated uses.
121312 - ref SDS 0 9075 Analysis shows that expectations from computer
121313 - compiling improvements send the wrong signal that better management is
121314 - evaluated by reducing cycle time, rather than improving quality of
121315 - decisions, based on alignment with objectives and requirements.
121316 - ref SDS 0 1430 Eugene notes that a paradigm shift toward using
121317 - computers to aid management has not yet occurred because computers do
121318 - not yet improve management productivity. ref SDS 0 1248 Eugene notes
121319 - that language is a technology, which may offer a path for augmenting
121320 - human capabilities. ref SDS 0 8975 He finally cites FGP for indexing
121321 - loosely associated concepts, as possible solution to Eric Armstrong's
121322 - question about how to manage case study information. Eugene cautions
121323 - that FGP strives to automate human capabilities, rather than augment
121324 - human thinkng. ref SDS 0 0786
121325 -
121326 -
121327 -
121329 - ..
1214 -
1215 -
1216 - Progress
121701 - ..
121702 - Engelbart's Ideas Resisted by Dynamics of Organizational Culture
121703 - Cultural Resists Change to Avoid Risks of Unproven Methods
121704 - Sunshine Profits Mask Need for Continual Improvement
121705 -
121706 - Follow up ref SDS 68 0984.
121707 -
121708 - Received ref DRT 1 0001 from Eugene Kim commenting on Eric Armstrong's
121709 - letter, ref DRP 5 0001, received on 000227.
121711 - ..
121712 - Eugene cite's Eric's letter that says in part...
121713 -
121714 - There are several reasons that prevent this approach from
121715 - being viable. Chief among them are:
121716 -
121717 - 1. Organizations simply do not work that way. While some
121718 - seriously desire to improve their productive capacities,
121719 - virtually none want to "improve their capability to
121720 - improve". ref DRT 1 0001
121721 -
121722 - ...which comes from ref DRP 5 0856, referring to analysis of
121723 - Engelbart's presentation in Colloquium session #8, reviewed on 000229.
121724 - ref SDS 68 0788
121725 - ..
121726 - Facilities Layout Impacts Productivity of Knowledge Work
121727 -
121728 - Eugene comments that when a company tries to facilitate
121729 - communication by building centralized cafeterias, intranet
121730 - communities, or even rearranging cubicles, are they improving
121731 - productive capacities, or are they improving capability to
121732 - improve? I would argue the latter. Building a centralized
121733 - cafeteria, in and of itself, is not going to improve a company's
121734 - productive capacities.
121735 -
121736 - Impact of facilities on productivity was presented 991217 at
121737 - KMCI's winter symposium held at Peoplesoft. The keynote
121738 - speaker indicated ergonomics of facilities has a big impact on
121739 - productivity of knowledge work, aiding or hindering
121740 - collaboration. ref SDS 48 9540
121741 -
121742 -
121743 -
121744 -
1218 -
SUBJECTS
Cost/Benefit Demonstrate on Small Scale, 000302
Breakthroughs Difficult to Sell
Pilot Test Experiment New Methods, Who Pays
1805 -
180601 - ..
180602 - Pilot Testing Needed to Demonstrate Cost Benefits New Capability
180603 - Improved Management Methods Specified to Develop Experience Base
180604 -
180605 - Follow up ref SDS 68 5810
180606 -
180607 - Eugene presents forceful analysis pointing to pilot testing capability
180608 - on a small scale to evaluate productivity gains, and give people the
180609 - chance to experience new methods, then scaling up in application and
180610 - capability.
180612 - ..
180613 - Eugene cite's Eric's letter that says in part...
180614 -
180615 - 2. To understand why such a [ABC improvement] project is
180616 - anathema to management, it must be understood that the risks
180617 - are huge. First, the cost of failure is high. And, to
180618 - succeed, it will likely require change to the organizational
180619 - model. Such change is always risky, and usually resisted by
180620 - lower echelons who perceive it as "interference". That makes
180621 - the rewards highly uncertain. And even if the rewards
180622 - accrue, the payback period is so long, and the results so
180623 - far removed from the source, that there is a serious danger
180624 - that the contributions will not even be recognized.
180625 - ref DRT 1 1804
180626 -
180627 - ...which comes from ref DRP 5 5555, referring to analysis of
180628 - Engelbart's presentation in Colloquium session #8, reviewed on 000229.
180629 - ref SDS 68 5952
180630 -
180632 - ..
180633 - Improvement Assessed Based on Cost/Benefit Risk Analysis
180635 - ..
180636 - Eugene relates Curtis Carlson, CEO of SRI, discussed, in a prior
180637 - session, how dimensionality effects willingness to try
180638 - "improvement" projects proposed by Doug's ABC method, and
180639 - reflecting issue of scale, reviewed on 991222. ref SDS 49 1596
180640 - Promising a 20 percent increase in productivity using a very
180641 - expensive, very risky proposal will most likely "laugh you out the
180642 - door." However, in today's economy, something that promises a one
180643 - percent increase in productivity with a high probability of
180644 - success will compound very quickly because of shortened product
180645 - cycles caused by Internet time and the greater importance of
180646 - capturing market share quickly. ref DRT 1 1696
180647 -
180648 - [On 000307 analysis suggests using seniors to help pilot
180649 - test new capability. ref SDS 72 4377
180651 - ..
180652 - [On 000314 letter to Colloquium discussion seniors for
180653 - initial knowledge management. ref SDS 73 0005
180655 - ..
180656 - [On 000317 submitted detailed proposal. ref SDS 74 0005
180658 - ..
180659 - Ignorance, Fear, Denial Make Improving Management a Miracle
180660 -
180661 - Improving management practice, which results from knowledge
180662 - management, like a DKR, is not assessed on cost/benefit; but
180663 - rather is resisted by strong cultural forces, reported on
180664 - 990527, ref SDS 39 1233, and "loathing" to learning new
180665 - methods, noted by Grove reviewed on 980307. ref SDS 31 3740 On
180666 - 951011 executives prefer to make small incremental changes
180667 - which lack any hope of improving productivity. ref SDS 22 3885
180669 - ..
180670 - Executives laugh at proposals for adding "intelligence" to
180671 - management as "funny," "alien" (on 990713, ref SDS 41 1767)
180672 - and "off-the-wall" (on 990505, ref SDS 37 0778), not because
180673 - their slide rule shows high risk, but because they fear
180674 - accountability (on 980405, ref SDS 33 5065), fear proposing
180675 - help for management gives appearance of incompetence (on
180676 - 000106, ref SDS 50 0877). They lack experience to feel good
180677 - about getting credit for improvement, rather than being blamed
180678 - for extra cost, and they lack courage to rely on the record
180679 - showing "intelligence" saved money for x and y, so pilot
180680 - testing has a very low risk of failure. That kind of
180681 - assessment (see Cal Tech event on 921021, ref SDS 7 5692)
180682 - makes improvement in knowledge work a miracle, as reported on
180683 - 981027. ref SDS 35 7315
180685 - ..
180686 - Small Improvements Compound into Big Productivity Gains
180687 -
180688 - Eugene gives an example of compouding small improvements from
180689 - saving only a few seconds compiling software, adds up to big
180690 - productivity gains because this is a frequent activity.
180691 - ref DRT 1 3072
180692 -
180693 - Management is the largest share of knowledge work from the
180694 - process of continually converting inert information from
180695 - calls, discussions, meetings, and documents, into useful
180696 - knowledge, see POIMS. ref OF 1 1101 Managers "compile" this
180697 - process in their head, and so it seems fast and easy to rely
180698 - on spur of the moment impulse.
180700 - ..
180701 - Focus on Near-Term Time Saved Reduces Productivity, Income
180702 - Small Mistakes Also Compound, Proactive Risk Management
180703 -
180704 - Eugene's example seems to move managers away from getting
180705 - help, because they rightly reason that using SDS to "compile"
180706 - their management information, and "debug" their mistakes,
180707 - explained in POIMS, ref OF 1 1108, takes more time. Managers
180708 - overlook Eugene's idea of applying risk management to
180709 - calculate the extra time required for rework to fix mistakes
180710 - by innate "compiling," cited by the U.S. Army Corps of
180711 - Engineers, ref DRP 9 4680, rather than proactive warning of
180712 - errors in reasoning, in advance of taking action. Limited
180713 - span of attention causes managers to focus on time saved in
180714 - the next few minutes that allows them to go home, rather than
180715 - system-wide time that is primarily applied to problem handling
180716 - due to continual bumbling from saving near-term time.
180718 - ..
180719 - On 000227 difficulty managers have assessing deferred costs in
180720 - relation to immediate time savings was reviewed in analysing
180721 - Eric's "counter proposal" strategies. ref SDS 68 8897
180722 -
180723 -
180724 -
180725 -
180726 -
180727 -
1808 -
SUBJECTS
Information Highway Brings New Reality Requires New Capabilities
Management Imploding - New Reality
CEOs Failing at Higher Rate
Intelligence Core Knowledge Enterprise Management
Internet Demonstrates KM Benefits, 000227
Innovation Loop Solved Experiment
Small Scale Low Risk Easier to Sell
Loathe Change Tricky Takes Courage to Go First in Paradigm Shift
4410 -
441101 - ..
441102 - Pilot Testing Demonstrates Capability, Improves DKR
441103 - Implement DKR on Small Scale with Available Capability
441104 -
441105 - Eugene suggests implementing knowledge management with a DKR
441106 - capability on a small scale, using what's available, to achieve
441107 - small but measurable improvements, and build on that. ref DRT 1
441108 - 4644
441110 - ..
441111 - [On 000324 Eugene assigned to develop initial project plan.
441112 - ref SDS 75 6036
441114 - ..
441115 - [On 000420 Eric Armstrong advocates that DKR team begin
441116 - using what is available. ref SDS 78 2537
441118 - ..
441119 - This aligns with Eric's proposal on 000120 reviewing initial
441120 - objectives of the Colloquium to focus DKR capability on a
441121 - single narrow field. ref SDS 51 7592
441123 - ..
441124 - On 000120 cultural resistance to improving work practices was
441125 - explained in a letter to the Colloquium. ref SDS 51 2546
441127 - ..
441128 - On 000124 Benay Dara-Abrams suggested using Augment NLS for
441129 - Colloquium team to gain experience for building a DKR.
441130 - ref SDS 52 0738
441131 -
441132 - [On 000317 letter to Colloquium proposes pilot testing DKR
441133 - capability with seniors on personal medical projects, to
441134 - take advantage of time, experience and self-interest for
441135 - better management. ref SDS 74 0005
441137 - ..
441138 - Further analysis on 000120 proposed using capability that
441139 - improves phone calls, meetings, projects, then scale up to
441140 - macro issues. ref SDS 51 3071
441142 - ..
441143 - On 000227 Dick Karpinski notified the Colloquium that SDS
441144 - improves knowledge management. ref SDS 68 0897 Eric called
441145 - for demonstrating small scale capability. ref SDS 68 8897
441146 -
441147 -
441148 -
441149 -
4412 -
SUBJECTS
Computers Managers Don't Use, Need Thinking Support, Not Data
Usefulness is Not a Design Criteria
Disallusioned by Technology Failed Promise of Automated Management
Paradigm Shift from Documents to Continuous Knowledge Stream
Uncommon Sense
Buy-in
5208 -
520901 - ..
520902 - Paperless Office, Still a Dream in the Mainstream
520903 - Paradigm Shifts Require Confluence of Forces to Coales
520904 - Executives Need Technology to Think, Remember and Communicate
520905 - Core Capability Knowledge Management is Intelligence
520906 -
520907 - Follow up ref SDS 68 1248.
520908 -
520909 - Eugene cite's Eric's letter that says in part...
520910 -
520911 - Where a paradigm shift like the computer is concerned, penetration
520912 - into executive ranks has been remarkably slow, presumably due to
520913 - the amount of training required.], ref DRT 1 2440
520914 -
520915 - ...which comes from ref DRP 5 3071
520916 -
520917 - Eugene suggests executives have been slow to adopt computers
520918 - because computers do not make them more productive. ref DRT 1 1924
520919 -
520920 - On 990912 Morris made a similar point. ref SDS 43 9661
520922 - ..
520923 - On 991025 analysis of Drucker's article on applying technology
520924 - productively, supports Eugene's observation. ref SDS 46 0836
520926 - ..
520927 - First, "management productivity" is an oxymoron because
520928 - information overload reduces the exercise to guess and gossip
520929 - that produces continual bumbling. It doesn't take much to
520930 - improve what people are doing, but it requires faith in
520931 - deferred rewards, and that is difficult to achieve, especially
520932 - when sunshine profits seem inexhaustible.
520934 - ..
520935 - [On 000327 Doug Engelbart cited his 1972 paper that sets out
520936 - tasks computers must support in order to improve the work of
520937 - management. ref SDS 76 3971
520939 - ..
520940 - [On 000331 Jack Park submits article leading to analysis on
520941 - how to identify and support a huge, new market based on
520942 - knowledge management capability. ref SDS 77 6887
520944 - ..
520945 - Eugene's analysis aligns with a book, "The Trouble with
520946 - Computers" -- i.e., designed for ease of use, not usefulness.
520947 - ref SDS 20 8911 Windows and the web are easy to use, and have
520948 - lots of information, but they don't have the "intelligence"
520949 - Doug calls out in his paper reviewed on 991222, ref SDS 49
520950 - 8064, that executives need in order to execute effectively,
520951 - cited by Fortune in the article reviewed on 990625.
520952 - ref SDS 40 7344
520954 - ..
520955 - Paradigm shifts require breakthrough technology designs in
520956 - core capabiliities, as set out on 000227, ref SDS 68 1248, in
520957 - order to lift productivity, as set out in the record on
520958 - 930326. ref SDS 10 7488
520960 - ..
520961 - POIMS explains computers have to perform a critical mass of
520962 - tasks together, in order to help managers. ref OF 1 2688
520964 - ..
520965 - On 890513 executive gave up trying to use computers for
520966 - management. ref SDS 1 4896
520968 - ..
520969 - On 890809 executive needs commitment to improve management,
520970 - manual methods flexible, provide deniability. ref SDS 3 2079
520972 - ..
520973 - On 900303 it is hard to design computers that help human
520974 - thinking, and continued failure makes people fearful computers
520975 - cannot help them manage. ref SDS 4 1088
520977 - ..
520978 - On 910416 article published by Byte, Dave Vannier reported
520979 - Intel's plans to use computers for management, ref SDS 21 8943
520981 - ..
520982 - On 930326 executive in Air Force explains frustrations trying
520983 - to use computers for management. ref SDS 10 5936
520985 - ..
520986 - On 940114 article says after 20 years of professional practice
520987 - and tool development, communication is less productive
520988 - ref SDS 11 2290 On 950228 executive frustrated by unproductive
520989 - meetings. ref SDS 18 1994
520991 - ..
520992 - On 940522 article reports companies fear computers cannot help
520993 - management because of failed promises. ref SDS 12 7399 On
520994 - 940909 author of article discouraged that computers can help
520995 - management, based on bad experience with Lotus Notes.
520996 - ref SDS 13 4986
520998 - ..
520999 - On 941229 dilemma of adherence to familiar practice prevents
521000 - discovering productivity gains from "paperless" office.
521001 - ref SDS 14 7382
521003 - ..
521004 - On 950223 executive weary of trying to understand how
521005 - computers can be used to improve management. ref SDS 17 7499
521007 - ..
521008 - On 950927 Dave Vannier at Intel gave up trying to apply Intel
521009 - technology (computers) to improve management, as layed in the
521010 - 1991 article. ref SDS 21 7732,
521012 - ..
521013 - On 951011 cultural forces prevent managers from discovering
521014 - how technology improves productivity. ref SDS 22 5545
521016 - ..
521017 - On 960701 technology change exceeds rate at which it can be
521018 - absorbed productively. Nobody ever figures out how to use a
521019 - tool to improve management, because marketing dynamics push
521020 - "new and improved" stuff that doesn't work as well as the
521021 - prior version. ref SDS 23 0897 (e.g., Windows zip omits date
521022 - param; W98 2nd Edition omits Attr from file listing, etc.)
521024 - ..
521025 - On 960715 Intel reports at professional event that technology
521026 - will cause "paper problem" to get worse, i.e., reduce
521027 - productivity. ref SDS 24 1552
521029 - ..
521030 - On 990527 strong cultural forces still prevent using computers
521031 - for management. ref SDS 39 1233
521033 - ..
521034 - On 000227 reviewed requirements for achieving a paradigm
521035 - shift. ref SDS 68 4987
521036 -
521037 -
521038 -
521039 -
5211 -
SUBJECTS
Core Capability of DKR, Engine of Knowledge
Alphabet Enhanced POIMS Tech
Alphabet Technology Augments Human Intelligence
Alphabet Technology Improves Oral Communication
Intelligence Expands Span of Attention Summary Linked to Detail
Alphabet Most Powerful Tool, Public Utility
6408 -
640901 - ..
640902 - Language Technology Augments Human Thinking, Intelligence
640903 -
640904 - Eugene Kim relates in a 3rd letter that language should fall under the
640905 - tool systems category rather than human systems. This led to inquiry
640906 - on differentiating between human and tool systems. Initial solutions
640907 - require more work, and describing the thought-process would burden the
640908 - record.
640909 -
640910 - [On 000324 Eugene developed and uses a DKR system which may have
640911 - spawned views about language being a technology. ref SDS 75 2867
640913 - ..
640914 - Eugene asks if others have thoughts on this? ref DRT 3 0001
640915 -
640916 - On 991108 Alphabet technology, which supports language, is a major
640917 - source of human progress, as a result of augmenting reasoning,
640918 - thinking, i.e., "intelligence." ref SDS 47 0300
640919 -
640920 - On 000120 reviewed advantages of augmenting alphabet technology.
640921 - ref SDS 51 2546
640923 - ..
640924 - On 000208 Eric Armstrong requests ideas for core capability of
640925 - knowledge management. ref SDS 54 8960
640927 - ..
640928 - On 000212 Eric proposes innovation of continuous information
640929 - stream. ref SDS 55 9790
640930 -
640931 -
640932 -
640933 -
640934 -
640935 -
640936 -
640937 -
640938 -
640939 -
6410 -
SUBJECTS
Case Studies, Causation, Root Causes Continual Learning
Root Causes Intelligence, Correlations
Case Studies, Traceability, Continual Learning
Lessons Learned, Avoiding Rework, Extra Cost, Delay
Repository of Experience, Knowledge
Lessons Learned, Case Studies Root Cause Analysis
Gelertner FGP Fetch Generalize Project, 000302
Augment Thinking with Computers
FGP Gelertner AI System
Mental Associations
7612 -
761301 - ..
761302 - Case Studies Organized According to Lessons Learned
761303 - Knowledge Management Lifts Collective IQ, Expands OHS Concept
761304 -
761305 - Follow up ref SDS 68 0786.
761306 -
761307 - Received 2nd letter from Eugene Kim, ref DRT 2 0001, commenting on
761308 - Eric Armstrong's letter dated 000227, ref DRP 6 0001, discussing case
761309 - studies as a model for using technology to augment management
761310 - practice.
761312 - ..
761313 - Eugene cite's Eric's letter that says in part...
761314 -
761315 - We mare almost certainly decades away from having the
761316 - capacity to automatically index a story under all the
761317 - many headings that might be appropriate. The story about
761318 - improving cars, for example, might be about improving
761319 - designs, overcoming management resistance, achieving
761320 - worker acceptance, getting customers involved, moving
761321 - to standardized interfaces, none of the above, all of
761322 - the above, or any combination of the above and many
761323 - more.
761325 - ..
761326 - How could we do that? ref DRT 2 0001
761327 -
761328 - ...which was reviewed in the record on 000227. ref SDS 68 0786
761329 -
761331 - ..
761332 - FGP Srives to Automate Human Capabilities (AI)
761333 - Gelertner Research on Fetch, Generalize and Project
761334 - Emotion Function Indexes Loosely Associated Concepts
761335 -
761336 - Eugene advises that David Gelertner (who founded MirrorWorlds)
761337 - wrote a wonderful essay in _Beyond Calculation: The Next Fifty
761338 - Years of Computing_ (Copernicus 1997) where he describes an
761339 - emotion function for indexing loosely associated concepts. The
761340 - idea is simple; the implementation, perhaps intractable. A common
761341 - association, for example, are women and flowers (excuse my
761342 - male-centrism for a moment). Gelertner's explanation for why we
761343 - associate these two seemingly disparate concepts is that they
761344 - inspire similar emotions. This principle served as the foundation
761345 - for one of Gelertner's research projects at Yale, the FGP Machine
761346 - (Fetch, Generalize, and Project). ref DRT 2 0464
761348 - ..
761349 - Eugene points out that Gelertner is trying to automate human
761350 - capabilities with the FGP machine. Eugene supports Engelbart's
761351 - strategy of using tools to augment human capabilities. ref DRT 2
761352 - 4420
761353 -
761354 - [On 000331 Gelertner says time is core of KM. ref SDS 77 5946
761355 -
761356 -
761357 -
761358 -
761359 -
761360 -
761361 -
761362 -
761363 -
761364 -
7614 -