THE WELCH COMPANY
440 Davis Court #1602
San Francisco, CA 94111-2496
415 781 5700
rodwelch@pacbell.net


S U M M A R Y


DIARY: June 12, 1994 09:00 AM Sunday; Rod Welch

PMI Asilomar Conference.

1...Summary/Objective
2...Terminology
3...I asked if TQM has become unpopular because of poor results, and so is
4...He said "reengineering" is not the same as TQM. One of the charts he
5...Future of TQM
6...Implementation Strategies/Resistance
....."TQM" is Western Civilization & Market Economics
.....Communication Metrics & Meetings
7...For Want of a Nail a Shoe Was Lost...
8...Cause of Murphy's Law - Mental Blind Spots
....More Information Reduces Productivity
....................Devil is in the details!
9...New Management Skills


..............
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CONTACTS 
0201 - PMI - N. Calif Chapter                                                                                                                                             O-00000259 0302
020101 - Mr. Ed Curran; Program Chairman; Information
0202 - The Quality Improvement Company                                                                                                                                    O-00000536 0101
020201 - Mr. Charles G. Harwood; Executive Consultant, Co-Founder
020202 - Mr. Tony Sweet; Executive Consultant                                                                                                                             O-00000536 0102

SUBJECTS
Asilomar, 940611
Why Things Go Wrong; TQM; Risk
TQM Made Practical with SDS Metrics
Deming, Edward, TQM
Reengineer KM AI Project Management Use Tech to Improve Productivity
TQM Similar but Different from Hammer Reengineering
Deming, Edward, TQM

1009 -
1009 -    ..
1010 - Summary/Objective
1011 -
101101 - Follow up ref SDS 22 0000.
101102 -
101103 - The session today is described in the program as pertaining
101104 - somewhat to TQM. ref DRP 1 DC9O
101106 -  ..
101107 - Tony Sweet, one of the presenters, yesterday evening at the social
101108 - hour, said they were not going to mention TQM, but instead would focus
101109 - entirely on what causes project difficulties, and remedies.  However
101110 - Charles Harwood actually spoke a great deal today about TQM.
101112 -  ..
101113 - Charles posted a chart showing the following elements:
101114 -
101115 -               Process change
101116 -               Metrics
101117 -
101118 -    ...not sure about the first element, but it seemed to be the "New
101119 -    Age" ideas Milan presented Friday evening. ref SDS 21 3955
101120 -
101121 -
101122 -
101124 -  ..
101125 - Terminology
101126 -
101127 - I asked if TQM has become unpopular because of poor results, and so is
101128 - no longer used, since there seems to be a hesitancy to use TQM at the
101129 - conference this weekend?  We heard a lot about "change," including
101130 - "reengineering" project management, and "Modern Project Management."
101131 -
101132 - Are these simply new terms for TQM?
101133 -
101134 -     This point came up at the Cal Tech seminar on 921020. ref SDS 5
101135 -     0001
101137 -      ..
101138 -     MPM is reviewed on 940615. ref SDS 23 0001
101140 -  ..
101141 - Milan's presentation Friday evening, and Mike Bell's presentation
101142 - yesterday, dealt with TQM, i.e. "paradigm shifts",  and "change," yet
101143 - they did not mention TQM.
101145 -  ..
101146 - We reviewed the example of work in artificial intelligence the past
101147 - several years, not being so identified, because AI has not seemed to
101148 - yield expected results, per the review at ref SDS 17 9861, and
101149 - ref SDS 17 4191
101151 -  ..
101152 - Charles was open and direct in advocating TQM.
101153 -
101155 -  ..
101156 - He said "reengineering" is not the same as TQM.  One of the charts he
101157 - presented, however, seemed to indicate at least one aspect of TQM
101158 - entails "reengineering" processes, to improve productivity.
101160 -  ..
101161 - The other key component seems to be metrics.
101162 -
101163 -     What is curious about the TQM movement, is so much emphasis on the
101164 -     soft stuff:  being a leader v. a manger, empowerment, paradigms,
101165 -     teamwork, ref SDS 21 line 98, which have been covered by Dale
101166 -     Carnigie, Covey, Machiavelli, Disraeli and of course the Bible has
101167 -     a lot of good ideas on dealing with people in teams, tribes,
101168 -     communities, nations, etc., so we work together more effectively.
101170 -      ..
101171 -     There never seems to be an example of how to "reengineer" a
101172 -     process. What is a process?  Where does it start and end.  Can we
101173 -     improve Deming's
101174 -
101175 -                          "Plan, Do, Study, Act?"
101177 -      ..
101178 -     What are good candidates to start TQM, since we cannot change
101179 -     everything all at once.  Show us an example of a CPM to get from
101180 -     here to there, and show us the as- built on actual performance.
101182 -      ..
101183 -     How do we design a metric?  Can we measure what managers do?
101184 -
101185 -         [Ideas on metrics were presented at the Cal Tech seminar at
101186 -         ref SDS 9 line 105.]
101188 -      ..
101189 -     How do we implement TQM so the cost is not greater than the bene-
101190 -     fit?  We have to set a budget and develop a schedule for achiev-
101191 -     ing results that measure improved earnings, i.e. we have to use
101192 -     TQM to evaluate TQM.  Conferees need guidance on how to set
101193 -     realistic budgets and schedules.  They need realistic expectations
101194 -     for long term investments.
101196 -      ..
101197 -     Why not use Mike Bell's suggestion of giving examples of TQM
101198 -     efforts that failed, ref SDS 22 line 226. What happened?  What was
101199 -     done that should not have been done; what was not done that should
101200 -     have been? Actually, Mike's presentation was to have covered this,
101201 -     but it did not do so, ref DRP 1 line 234.
101202 -
101203 -
101205 -  ..
101206 - Future of TQM
101207 -
101208 - Charles asked how many people feel TQM is a fad, and how many people
101209 - feel it can make a meaningful contribution to their career and the
101210 - success of their organizations?  The response was mixed.
101211 -
101212 -     One problem with TQM may be the name sounds superficial, like MPM,
101213 -     see ref SDS 23 line 103.  "Total Quality Management" sounds
101214 -     fadish, since it is not clear why "Total" is needed, any more than
101215 -     "Modern" adds to "Project Management."  What will we be saying in
101216 -     10 years:
101218 -                     ..
101219 -                    COMPLETELY Total Quality Management
101221 -                     ..
101222 -                    MORE Modern Project Management
101223 -
101225 -      ..
101226 -     See also "TQM is Western Civilization," below. ref SDS 0 9581
101227 -
101228 -
101230 -  ..
101231 - Implementation Strategies/Resistance
101232 -
101233 - I asked how individuals can apply TQM without organizational support,
101234 - or in the face of resistance?
101235 -
101236 -      This point is considered in evaluation of Cal Tech seminar flyer
101237 -      at ref SDS 8 line 170.
101239 -  ..
101240 - Is TQM doomed by a need for a large "critical mass" of people and
101241 - organizational elements, all participating at the same time, in order
101242 - to achieve measurable results?  If there is a significant delay
101243 - between attempted "change" and tangible results, then commitment
101244 - wanes, and people slide back to prior comfortable habits. "Change"
101245 - fails. (see analysis of Covey at ref SDS 7 line 217).  For TQM to
101246 - succeed, there must be a way for committed individuals to demonstrate
101247 - its merit within a time frame that others in the organization can see
101248 - the benefit of assuming the cost and risk of changing.  TQM is an
101249 - investment in the future.  So ROI must be readily grasped in order to
101250 - get widespread acceptance, per ref SDS 7 line 232.
101251 -
101253 -      ..
101254 -     "TQM" is Western Civilization & Market Economics
101255 -     ------------------------------------------------
101256 -     TQM is resisted as counterintuitive.  Even the idea of metrics
101257 -     seems redundant, since the market measures performance. The whole
101258 -     of Western civilization is about improving work processes. Those
101259 -     who don't improve die off.  It rings hollow for project managers
101260 -     to hear about the need to change, when the definition of a
101261 -     "project" has "change" as its goal, ref SDS 10 line 193.
101262 -
101263 -         [See later review of market forces as "slow" for bringing
101264 -         about change, ref SDS 28 2004.]
101266 -          ..
101267 -         [On 991217 another fad called Knowledge Management took the
101268 -         place of TQM; civilization shows cost/benefits of KM.
101269 -         ref SDS 32 T93H
101271 -          ..
101272 -         [On 011102 economic benefits units of measure difficult to
101273 -         design for Knowledge Management, learning, education,
101274 -         teaching, mentoring, experience, personal and organizational
101275 -         memory. ref SDS 33 01CO
101277 -      ..
101278 -     Those in the environmental movement are upset because their
101279 -     religion is the status quo; they need TQM.  Why then is TQM
101280 -     meaningful to people whose job is to bring about change?
101282 -      ..
101283 -     One might say, TQM is a set of procedures to identify and accomp-
101284 -     lish needed change as a routine business function, and to develop
101285 -     metrics that show intermediate results before the bottom line is
101286 -     measured and found inadequate.  Thus, it is a tool to continue the
101287 -     long march of progress in an increasingly complex world.  However,
101288 -     this weekend we did not hear how to do this.
101289 -
101290 -         [This idea was later identified as the Law of the Microcosm,
101291 -         where gaining greater control over lower levels of organic
101292 -         structure yield significant productivity gains.  Thus, first
101293 -         accounting, then cost control, now Communicaton Metrics, see
101294 -         ref SDS 29 3846.]
101295 -
101297 -  ..
101298 - Tony said it is necessary to find "contained limits" for starting a
101299 - TQM effort, such as a project team, a department, or division, that is
101300 - able to accomplish its mission with minimal interaction from other
101301 - organizational elements.
101302 -
101303 -
101304 -
1014 -

SUBJECTS
TQM Made Practical with SDS Metrics
Meeting Support, Facilitator
Meetings Require Shared Meaning and Follow
70% of Day Wasted in Meetings, Only 10% of
Management productivity, Needs Integration
Meetings People Not Prepared

2108 -
210901 -      ..
210902 -     Communication Metrics & Meetings
210903 -
210904 -     I asked Tony how TQM can be applied to align understandings by
210905 -     adding "metrics" to communications as a means to avoid mistakes
210906 -     and conflicts based on the Cal Tech seminar on 921021, ref SDS 6
210907 -     4390,
210909 -      ..
210910 -     Tony said he has not considered this aspect of quality management
210911 -     for improving communication.  He asked why I thought of it?
210913 -      ..
210914 -     I explained that the exercises Charles had the conferees perform,
210915 -     resulted in many attendees identifying "meetings" as a major waste
210916 -     of time.  The classical way to improve a "process" like business
210917 -     meetings is to measure it.
210919 -      ..
210920 -     How do we use TQM to measure "communications?"
210922 -      ..
210923 -     Tony indicated his experience with TQM to facilitate meetings like
210924 -     today has not revealed an application for this problem.  He said
210925 -     TQM uses communication in meetings to solve other problems, but it
210926 -     has not addressed how to improve the communication problem.
210927 -
210928 -        [On 950202 Kerzner's lecture on Project Management called for
210929 -        integrating business processes of cost and schedule metrics,
210930 -        which could be expanded to include communications under
210931 -        analysis at ref SDS 27 5093.
210933 -         ..
210934 -        Adding "metrics" to communications is reported in the same
210935 -        record at ref SDS 27 5005 and ref SDS 27 0333]
210936 -
210937 -
210938 -
210939 -
210940 -
2110 -

SUBJECTS
Asilomar, 940611
Why Things Go Wrong; TQM; Risk
Mistakes, Impact on Meeting Objectives
Nail, For Want of, A Shoe Was Lost...
Devil in Details, 20 80 Cuts Executives Off
Murphy's Law Leadership Disconnected from
Information Highway New Environment Needs

2709 -
271001 -  ..
271002 - For Want of a Nail a Shoe Was Lost...
271003 -
271004 - Charles began the session this morning by quoting the opening lines,
271005 - and then asking the audience to finish the famous poem about the
271006 - importance of details to achieve great endeavors.
271007 -
271008 -     I used this poem to explain the promise of POIMS, in a lecture to
271009 -     an MBA class in 1990 at GGU, per ref SDS 4 8930.
271011 -  ..
271012 - Charles feels TQM can help executives deal more effectively with
271013 - critical details, reflecting Peter Drucker's view that productivity of
271014 - "knowledge" work, like management, mainly relates to "quality," see
271015 - review on 931130. ref SDS 12 3416  Charles said that while mistakes
271016 - cannot be entirely eliminated, better attention to details can reduce
271017 - mistakes, as well as the effect of those that occur.  This permits
271018 - meaningful progress toward reducing the sanguine implications of
271019 - Murphy's Law...
271021 -                    ..
271022 -                   What Can Go Wrong Will Wrong
271023 -
271025 -  ..
271026 - Cause of Murphy's Law - Mental Blind Spots
271027 -
271028 - Prior to the start of today's session, I asked Ed Curran about the
271029 - conference theme, Murphy's law, and whether there would be an
271030 - explanation of why "mysterious" problems arise, and what to do about
271031 - them, see ref SDS 25 7489, Cal Tech Seminar at ref SDS 6 7486, and
271032 - also at ref SDS 2 6047; "O" Ring Space Shuttle example at ref SDS 6
271033 - 4499.  Another example is at ref SDS 26 8987.
271034 -
271035 -      [On 990625 Fortune article says executive "psyche" prevents them
271036 -      from "...grabbing a pend and start writing," which in turn causes
271037 -      executives to fail. ref SDS 31 7344, ref SDS 31 1024, and, also,
271038 -      ref SDS 31 4914]
271039 -
271041 -     ..
271042 -    More Information Reduces Productivity
271043 -
271044 -    I suggested an expanding information universe in conjunction with
271045 -    more and more objectives, causes increased mistakes, because the
271046 -    human mind cannot hold order for very long, it fills in missing
271047 -    information, or hears what it wants, ref SDS 3 683 and ref SDS 3
271048 -    4456, and documents which can hold order, cannot keep up with the
271049 -    pace of modern business life (see New World Order, Needs Old Time
271050 -    Religion" ref OF 2 9043). These mistakes, however, are hidden
271051 -    because there is not enough time to become confused, which would
271052 -    otherwise permit investigation, and thereby, discovery of error.
271053 -    ref OF 2 5623
271055 -     ..
271056 -    On 940609 an article in Scientific American explains how the mind
271057 -    fills in missing information in human visual "Blind Spots," as
271058 -    reported at ref SDS 19 0020.  The mind does the same thing in other
271059 -    relms of knowledge, and in performing the "filling in" process, it
271060 -    makes mistakes.
271061 -
271062 -          [Later added reference to Murphy in an edit requested by Fran
271063 -          Webster, ref SDS 24 9045, also ref SDS 25 9043.]
271065 -           ..
271066 -          [See also "Blind Spots, ref SDS 20 0020.]
271068 -           ..
271069 -          [On 970829 book on management identifies "limited span of
271070 -          attention" which is another way of explaining cause of
271071 -          Murphy's Law. ref SDS 30 4476]
271072 -
271073 -    "Murphy" arises when people act with conviction about an erroneous
271074 -    view of the facts (see review of "Information Revolution" at ref
271075 -    SDS 10 4757, and reliance on pictures and conversation instead of
271076 -    text, ref SDS 25 7489).
271078 -     ..
271079 -    At the Cal Tech seminar on 921021 there was discussion that often
271080 -    information to avoid Murhpy is in the record, ref SDS 6 7486, as
271081 -    considered yesterday when the ship building problem was reviewed,
271082 -    ref SDS 22 8477.
271083 -
271084 -        [On 941211 example occurred at PG&E. ref SDS 26 7388, and at
271085 -        ref SDS 26 7744]
271087 -     ..
271088 -    But the record is not consulted, because there is not enough time
271089 -    to retrieve it when needed, ref SDS 6 4390 and ref SDS 6 7486
271091 -     ..
271092 -    So managers instead rely on the "official view of reality" evolved
271093 -    from conversation and personal feelings, ref SDS 16 4888, and then
271094 -    blame "Murphy" for the consequent disjunction between what they
271095 -    "think" occurred, or feel should have occurred, and what the record
271096 -    shows actually occurred. Yet "Murphy" has never made a secret of
271097 -    the fact that the:
271098 -                     ..
271099 -                    Devil is in the details!
271100 -
271101 -    ...we all know that to win great battles, the nails have to be
271102 -    delivered on time (...For want of a nail a shoe was lost..., which
271103 -    is cited above. ref SDS 0 6442)
271105 -     ..
271106 -    Therefore, to avoid Murphy, we need better control of the details
271107 -    (see discussion of "Controlled Visibility" at ref OF 1 1103, and at
271108 -    ref OF 1 0307)
271109 -
271110 -        [See solution in "communication metrics" discussed above, see
271111 -        ref SDS 0 0020, and at ref SDS 27 4302]
271112 -
271114 -  ..
271115 - Charles and Tony had the conferees do an exercise listing what causes
271116 - projects to fail and alterntively, to succeed.  There was not enough
271117 - time, however, to develop any ideas on what can be done to gain better
271118 - control of the details of daily business life, so we can ensure that
271119 - the right nails are delivered on time and within budget.
271121 -  ..
271122 - So far, Murphy is still out there.
271123 -
271125 -  ..
271126 - New Management Skills
271127 -
271128 - I asked Ed Curran before the session, what conferees should expect to
271129 - do on Monday that is different from what they were doing on Friday, as
271130 - a result of attending the conference, similar to the question asked
271131 - Friday evening. ref SDS 21 4839
271133 -  ..
271134 - Ed said this would be treated during the presentation this morning.
271135 - At the end of the conference, Charles asked us to write down three
271136 - things we will do to implement the ideas presented at the conference.
271137 - I wrote down:
271138 -
271139 -               Mind mapping
271140 -               Manipulative verbs
271141 -               Have fewer meetings to reduce wasted time
271142 -
271143 -   ...the last item may not be that helpful.  The focus should be on
271144 -   improved communication to make meetings productive.  Shared elec-
271145 -   tronic data bases (e.g. LANs, BBS, PROFS, Internet) if properly
271146 -   applied, can reduce the need to meet, but only if there is an effec-
271147 -   tive way to "manage" the information, i.e. to roll it over into
271148 -   controllable action items linked back to original sources, so we
271149 -   know where we are going and why.
271150 -
271152 -  ..
271153 - Frankly, this does not seem a particularly hearty step toward the kind
271154 - of change called for throughout the conference.  I wonder if conferees
271155 - could be helped further by ideas about what steps to take, what skills
271156 - to acquire, what resistance will be encountered and what to do about
271157 - it.  Of course we only had three days, but just a few hints would, as
271158 - Jessie Jackson importunes, "Keep hope alive!"
271159 -
271160 -        [On 040621 10 years later learned that the year before this
271161 -        seminar in Jan-Feb 1993 Alan Webber wrote a piece proposing
271162 -        conversation for change and renewal under the banner of
271163 -        "Knowledge Management to replace declining confidence in TQM
271164 -        and reengineering. ref SDS 34 HJ8M
271165 -
271166 -
271167 -
271168 -
271169 -
271170 -
271171 -
2712 -
Distribution. . . . See "CONTACTS"