THE WELCH COMPANY
440 Davis Court #1602
San Francisco, CA 94111-2496
415 781 5700
rodwelch@pacbell.net


S U M M A R Y


DIARY: May 10, 2001 10:38 PM Thursday; Rod Welch

Microsoft trying to improve productivity, planning to use XML.

1...Summary/Objective
2...Executive Team Sat Around and Talked about Transformation
3...XML Next Killer App in 5 Years
4...Microsoft Plans to Increase Productivity by Selling XML Products


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CONTACTS 

SUBJECTS
Internet, Multi-media for Meetings
Computers Believed to Make Managers More Productive
Management Productivity Reduced by Technology
Paperless Office Failed
Virtual Office Reduces Cost of Paper Handling
Technology Reduce Productivity Requires Testing Discover Ergonomic Se
Dilemma Subjects Everything Related to Everything Else Complex Imposs
Productivity IT Declined Last 10 Years Info Highway Requires Ergonomi
Information Overload
Microsoft Goal Improve Productivity No Evidence This is Accomplished,
Interview Charlie Rose Broadcast from Honk Kong
Rose, Charlie Broadcast Interview

3414 -
3414 -    ..
3415 - Summary/Objective
3416 -
341601 - Follow up ref SDS 83 0001 ref SDS 60 0000.
341602 -
341603 - Steve Balmer, Microsoft CEO, was interviewed by Charlie Rose in a
341604 - broadcast from Hong Kong today. ref OF 10 0001
341605 -
341606 -
341607 -                http://www.pbs.org/charlierose/
341608 -
341610 -                          ..
341611 -                         800 255 6397
341612 -
341614 -  ..
341615 - Executive Team Sat Around and Talked about Transformation
341616 -
341617 - Balmer related during the interview that a Microsoft executive team of
341618 - 6 or 7 people held weekly meetings on transitioning to meet evolving
341619 - market conditions.  Meetings lasted for three or four hours, and....
341620 -
341621 -        "....we sat around and talked about the fundamental
341622 -        transformations that are going on. And it took us a while,
341623 -        frankly, to -- what should I say? -- bake it as the-- as the
341624 -        XML and dot-net revolution.  And then we had to really ask what
341625 -        does it really mean, what it doesn't mean.  We spent more time
341626 -        in that kind of weekly strategy brainstorming. ref OF 10 LN4F
341628 -      ..
341629 -     This explanation aligns with evidence that management work is 80%
341630 -     to 90% communication, reported on 890809. ref SDS 2 8812  But,
341631 -     executives worry about productivity because people do not
341632 -     "listen." ref SDS 2 CJ9J
341634 -      ..
341635 -     On 960215 Reuters reported a study showing mangers waste 70% of
341636 -     the day in unproductive meetings, because people are unprepared,
341637 -     discussion veers off course, follow up fails. ref SDS 16 5902
341638 -     Technology to capture organizational memory, and assembling
341639 -     relevant memory in time to be "prepared" for working productively
341640 -     was reviewed on 950327. ref SDS 12 8822
341642 -  ..
341643 - Balmer maintained during the interview that Microsoft's goal is to
341644 - provide technology that makes people more productive, ref OF 10 9H3G,
341645 - because better productivity improves earnings and share holder value.
341646 - Balmer noted that technology is a powerful key to improving
341647 - productivity.  He said... I don't think that's misplaced confidence.
341648 - ref OF 10 WA4K ..... the most significant thing technology helps with
341649 - is people's productivity. ref OF 10 TE7K .....the number one benefit
341650 - of PCs has come from making people more productive, more informed,
341651 - and, in some sense, happier, because they're able to be more effective
341652 - in what they do. ref OF 10 6H8M
341653 -
341654 -       [On 010613 asked Microsoft for help resolving product defect to
341655 -       maintain productivity. ref SDS 86 0001
341657 -        ..
341658 -       [On 021108 Bill Gates interviewed on Charlie Rose broadcast
341659 -       disclosed new project to improve Microsoft programs so people
341660 -       can find information to improve productivity. ref SDS 95 EF5I
341662 -        ..
341663 -       [On 021108 Bill Gates interviewed on Charlie Rose broadcast
341664 -       disclosed new Microsoft project to integrate commands so people
341665 -       can use more than 5% of Microsoft features. ref SDS 95 EFBE
341667 -        ..
341668 -       [On 021109 "Getting Things Done" is a software program sold by
341669 -       the David Allen Company to improve productivity of Microsoft
341670 -       Outlook by enabling good management practice. ref SDS 96 F63I
341672 -      ..
341673 -     Balmer did not explain how Microsoft products, for example, Word,
341674 -     Powerpoint, Excel, etc., improved productivity of the meetings he
341675 -     described on setting a course for Microsoft to develop XML in 5
341676 -     years or so.  Nor did Balmer explain how the results of those
341677 -     meetings will make other meetings even more productive in order to
341678 -     improve earnings at Microsoft and its customers.
341680 -        ..
341681 -       [On 020110 report people only use 5% of features in Microsoft
341682 -       Word and Outlook. ref SDS 92 CK4K
341684 -        ..
341685 -       [On 020204 Palmer report on Enron reported that Andy Fastow used
341686 -       Powerpoint to conduct meetings with Board that resulted in
341687 -       approval of decisions that reduced productivity, earnings and
341688 -       stock prices. ref SDS 93 KM4F
341690 -      ..
341691 -     On 960924 meetings are weak link in management that need support
341692 -     for productivity. ref SDS 29 G16O
341694 -      ..
341695 -     How is technology used at Microsoft to improve understanding and
341696 -     follow up, i.e., listening, cited on 890809? ref SDS 2 CJ9J  There
341697 -     were no examples offered nor explained by Balmer during the
341698 -     interview on how he and his colleagues used Microsoft products to
341699 -     capture organizational memory so they could be prepared to have
341700 -     effective meetings on setting a new course for Microsoft.  If
341701 -     Microsoft technology cannot help the executive team at Microsoft
341702 -     collaborate, how can it help productivity of Microsoft customers?
341704 -      ..
341705 -     Balmer did not offer evidence showing that anyone at Microsoft or
341706 -     anywhere else is more productive; nor, did he rebut reports that
341707 -     technology has reduced productivity.....
341708 -
341709 -        940609. Kissinger cites continual bumbling.... ref SDS 9 4238
341710 -        950927. people giving up on technology........ ref SDS 15 7732
341711 -        970919. executives have been misled........... ref SDS 47 2064
341712 -        980101, Drucker productivity is falling....... ref SDS 53 4042
341713 -        980613. information overload new reality...... ref SDS 60 3499
341714 -        980807, not enough time to think.............. ref SDS 66 2426
341715 -        001207, productivity, earnings, stocks down... ref SDS 80 V54M
341716 -        010111, collabortion not aided by technology.. ref SDS 81 EF6M
341717 -
341718 -     ..., which reflects a report on 970603 that productivity is not in
341719 -     fact the aim of technology manufacturers. ref SDS 37 4486
341720 -
341721 -         [On 010521 executive assistant reports technology has not
341722 -         improved productivity. ref SDS 84 954N
341724 -          ..
341725 -         [On 010608 backup industry unable to use energy conservation
341726 -         features on computers using Microsoft Windows 2000 operting
341727 -         system. ref SDS 85 ZX6G
341729 -      ..
341730 -     Balmer noted during the Interview that Office XP will have voice
341731 -     recognition so that people can dictate a letter, rather use a
341732 -     keyboard.  He added that a keyboard is more efficient, because
341733 -     voice recognition makes a lot of mistakes that have to be
341734 -     corrected using a keyboard. ref OF 10 TS4I
341735 -
341736 -         On 991108 Ross said IBM provided speech recognition that could
341737 -         be an enabling technology for SDS. ref SDS 75 7823
341739 -      ..
341740 -     Balmer did not explain how dictation technology, or any other
341741 -     capability Microsoft has in mind, including XML, improves
341742 -     productivity of meetings and phone calls.  Since communication
341743 -     takes up 80% - 90% of managers time, and 70% of the time is wasted
341744 -     because people don't listen, it was not clear from the interview
341745 -     how productivity, earnings and stock prices are improved by using
341746 -     Microsoft technology.
341747 -
341748 -         [On 010614 John Deneen provides new information indicating
341749 -         speech recognition is effective. ref SDS 87 0H5O
341751 -          ..
341752 -         [On 011006 speech recognition software has not progressed at
341753 -         Intel for teleconferencing. ref SDS 90 IQ5M
341755 -          ..
341756 -         [On 011008 voice recognition suggested as possible business
341757 -         lead for SDS. ref SDS 91 0001
341758 -
341759 -
341760 -
341761 -
341762 -
341763 -
341764 -
3418 -

SUBJECTS
XML Determined to be Future Opportunity to Improve Productivity in 5
XML Next Wave Productivity in 5 Years, Balmer, 010521
XML - Extended Markup Language
XML Tools Web Pages AI Use Software Email for Collaboration Ontology
XML SGML Supports Atomic Data Structure Secret Knowledge Management
Balmer Productivity No Example Using Microsoft Products to Improve P
Microsoft Goal Improve Productivity No Evidence This is Accomplished

5609 -
561001 -  ..
561002 - XML Next Killer App in 5 Years
561003 - Microsoft Plans to Increase Productivity by Selling XML Products
561004 -
561005 - Balmer explained during the interview today that executive discussions
561006 - for planning, described above, ref SDS 0 656F, yielded Microsoft plans
561007 - to upgrade core software to improve productivity by applying XML
561008 - technology in 5 or 6 years. ref OF 10 OQ4I  Bill Gates says "We're
561009 - betting the company on XML and what it can do for businesses and
561010 - consumers. ref OF 10 LS5L
561012 -  ..
561013 - STEVE BALLMER:  I want to back up just a little bit because I think
561014 - the key-- the key point is how long will XML take.  It's not going
561015 - to-- I mean, there's exciting, innovative work happening in a lot of
561016 - companies on XML every day. ref OF 10 QT6O  But before users get the
561017 - full benefit, it's three, it's four, it's five-- there'll be a little
561018 - benefit this year, a little bit more, a little bit more.  It's a five
561019 - or six-year thing.  It's not a one or two-year thing. ref OF 10 NV3M
561020 -
561021 -          [On 030816 Microsoft guidance on detecting, recoverying and
561022 -          protecting against virus problems calls on people to "print
561023 -          this page for ... reference," rather than link to the
561024 -          original source for instant access to reference, supports
561025 -          Steve's report today that Microsoft is still working on
561026 -          technology to improve productivity. ref SDS 98 SR30
561028 -      ..
561029 -     Balmer did not explain XML nor how it would be used for anything
561030 -     productive within the goals he cited earlier in the interview for
561031 -     Microsoft to improve "productivity." ref SDS 0 YG5K None-the-less
561032 -     XML has become associated as an alternative way of promoting
561033 -     knowledge mangaement or otherwise using technology to improve
561034 -     productivity of knowledge work commonly associated with
561035 -     communication through wordprocessing, email, spreadsheets, cell
561036 -     phones and meetings where powerpoint programs are a big hit.
561037 -
561038 -          [On 020204 Enron collapsed after the board approved high risk
561039 -          ventures promoted with effective Powerpoint presentations.
561040 -          ref SDS 93 KM4F
561042 -           ..
561043 -          [On 021107 Bill Gates interviewed by Charlie Rose does not
561044 -          report progress on XML project to improve productivity.
561045 -          ref SDS 95 8Y8H
561047 -           ..
561048 -          [On 030308 MyLifeBits is a Microsoft project to develop
561049 -          Knowledge Management underway in San Francisco. ref SDS 97
561050 -          NO70 and ref SDS 97 NP35
561051 -
561053 -      ..
561054 -     XML has been investigated by the OHS/DKR project to support design
561055 -     of Knowledge Management (KM) technology.  Balmer did not mention
561056 -     KM, perhaps because everyone is searching for another buz word to
561057 -     carry the industry for the next few years.  On 010426 Pat Lincoln
561058 -     disclosed people are discouraged that KM cannot be produced.
561059 -     ref SDS 82 657O  As a result, XML may be the new buz word.
561061 -      ..
561062 -     On 000405 XML was cited as helpful but not an easy solution,
561063 -     ref SDS 77 5977, which aligns with Balmer's assessment that
561064 -     products are some years in the future.
561066 -      ..
561067 -     On 000424 XML, SGML and related technologies are considered to
561068 -     support Knowledge Management using ideas for atomic data
561069 -     structures from AI. ref SDS 78 0002
561070 -
561071 -           Progress has been slow, focused mainly on forming concepts
561072 -           about "knowledge," "management," "atomic data structures."
561073 -           "semiotics," etc.  On 000324 SRI reported projects working
561074 -           on these matters need help. ref SDS 76 4877
561076 -      ..
561077 -     On 001124 Ken Holman reports XML is not a panacea for KM
561078 -     development. ref SDS 79 0001
561079 -
561080 -         [On 010620 Lee Iverson published a paper explaining
561081 -         limitations of XML, and proposes a new method called NODAL for
561082 -         improving collaboration. ref SDS 88 01V9
561084 -          ..
561085 -         [On 010705 Actionbase uses XML to improve productivity with an
561086 -         action item program. ref SDS 89 VD8O
561088 -          ..
561089 -         [On 020608 Dave Snowden relates research at IBM showing that
561090 -         KM has failed. ref SDS 94 ZN6I
561091 -
561092 -
561093 -
561094 -
561095 -
561096 -
561097 -
561098 -
561099 -
561100 -
561101 -
561102 -
561103 -
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561105 -
5612 -