THE WELCH COMPANY
440 Davis Court #1602
San Francisco, CA 94111-2496
415 781 5700


S U M M A R Y


DIARY: June 29, 1999 06:57 AM Tuesday; Rod Welch

Sally at NSF called on proposal 9961176 for Communication Metrics.

1...Summary/Objective
2...NSF Supports Research for Sustaining and Disruptive Technologies
3...Communication Metrics Proposal will be Reviewed on the Merits
4...Industry Contacts to Accelerate Development of Communication Metrics
5...Commercial Funding Phase II Requirements
6...Steve Pinker, Tom Landauer to Review Proposal
7...Key Word Listing Part of Project Summary


..............
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CONTACTS 
0201 - National Science Foundation          703 306 1234
020101 - Ms. Sara B. Nerlove; 703 306 1395 Ext 5247

SUBJECTS
NSF Proposal 9961176
Administration, Receipt, Processing

0404 -    ..
0405 - Summary/Objective
0406 -
040601 - Follow up ref SDS 25 0000, ref SDS 20 0000.
040602 -
040603 - Sally reported that the proposal for Communication Metrics will be
040604 - reviewed on the merits.  Future proposals need more detail on
040605 - consultant scope.  Received a contact to support Phase II proposal
040606 - tasks, ref SDS 0 3000, and, Sarah suggested ways to garner commercial
040607 - support for Phase II.  She feels Steve Pinker and Tom Landauer would
040608 - be good choices to review the proposal on Communication Metrics.
040609 -
040610 - Submitted ref DIT 1 linked to this record, and to the letter listing
040611 - possible reviewers. ref DIP 17  Included link to list of "key words"
040612 - on 990616. ref SDS 20 9044
040613 -
040614 - Submitted ref DIT 2 to Dan Palanza, linked to this record. ref SDS 0
040615 - 3000, and to the Technical Proposal. ref OF 14
040616 -
040617 -    [On 990710 talked to Dan. ref SDS 29 0001]
040618 -
040619 - Submitted ref DIT 3 to Roy Roybuck for proposal support. ref SDS 0
040620 - 3000
040621 -
040622 -    [On 990630 notified Tom Landauer. ref SDS 26 0001]
040623 -
040624 -    [On 990706 Tom does not have time to do the review; professional
040625 -    differences would make Tom ineffectual as a contact with Steve
040626 -    Pinker on this matter. ref SDS 27 7632]
040627 -
040628 -    [On 990707 Sally advises proposals do not need support from
040629 -    reviewers specified by SRO. ref SDS 28 0001]
040630 -
040631 -    [On 990716 contacted Mark Haselkorn. ref SDS 33 0001]
040632 -
040633 -    [On 990729 received comments from Mark. ref SDS 35]
040634 -
040635 -
040636 -
040637 -
0407 -
0408 -
0409 - Progress
0410 -
041001 - Left voice mail returning Sarah's call yesterday. ref SDS 25 0001
041002 -
041003 - Advised I am in Concord today at 925 680 8947.
041004 -
041005 -
041006 -
041007 -  ..
0411 -
0412 -
0413 - 0733 Sally called back
0414 -
041401 -  ..
041402 - NSF Supports Research for Sustaining and Disruptive Technologies
041403 - Communication Metrics Proposal will be Reviewed on the Merits
041404 -
041405 - Sally indicated the Communication Metrics proposal submitted on
041406 - 990616, ref DIP 16, will go forward for review.
041407 -
041408 - She explained details should typically be provided on consultant scope
041409 - shown in budget section G.3, ref OF 23 9007, as called out in NSF
041410 - instruction 3.5 part 7. ref OF 5 0357   Part 7 of the Technical
041411 - Proposal explains consultant help needed for Communication Metrics.
041412 - ref OF 19
041413 -
041414 - Sally has not seen the proposal online, and so has not opened linked
041415 - material, which illustrates the innovation, and why it is difficult to
041416 - formulate specific consultant scope in advance of NSF approval due, on
041417 - the one hand, to lack of credibility in the value of "intelligence"
041418 - applied by the Welch innovation, e.g., lack of response by Steve
041419 - Pinker on 990329, ref SDS 13 9382; and, also, fear of accountability,
041420 - reviewed on 980405. ref SDS 10 5065  Experience with the technology
041421 - tends to diminish these constraints, as related in Technical Proposal
041422 - Part 5 covering Commercial Potential. ref OF 17 0704  NSF support may
041423 - encourage people with the needed expertise to support the effort, as
041424 - noted in Part 2, ref OF 14 0920, and Part 5. ref OF 19 5265
041425 -
041426 - On 990527 reviewed Clay Christensen's book...
041427 -
041428 -
041429 -                    The Innovator's Dilemma
041430 -
041431 -
041432 - ...which explains detailed budgets and planning are essential for
041433 - research on sustaining technologies. ref SDS 16 4720
041434 -
041435 - Communication Metrics is a "disruptive technology," as cited in Part 2
041436 - of the Technical Proposal. ref OF 14 9677  Commercial Potential in
041437 - Part 5 of the Technical Proposal sets out the challenge of preparing
041438 - specific tasks and budgets for disruptive technologies. ref OF 17
041439 -
041440 - On 990527 "disruptive technologies" are growth engines that generate
041441 - new jobs and new revenue streams.  "Research" must discover how to
041442 - budget and plan for this new capability because is unknowable in
041443 - advance. ref SDS 16 5258  A key hurdle to overcome is fear of
041444 - accountability, and how to help people grasp that technology can
041445 - leverage human intelligence, as related on 980405. ref SDS 10 5065
041446 -
041447 - As a result, there is only a 2% chance NSF review staff will grasp the
041448 - proposal on Communication Metrics, especially, if they only review the
041449 - printed material.
041450 -
041451 - Sally related consideration yesterday by the NSF team of this issue,
041452 - in connection with requirements for details on SRO staff who will
041453 - contribute to the project, which is similar to estimating consultant
041454 - support.
041455 -
041456 - Sally feels NSF requirements for advanced planning should be followed,
041457 - otherwise chances escalate that funds will be misused, and/or that
041458 - research will fail.  She suggested that budget details can be shown in
041459 - the proposal to establish a baseline plan of some sort, rather than
041460 - ignore requirements.  NSF recognizes that during a project, changes
041461 - may be needed in original staffing, consultant scope, tasks and
041462 - budgets.
041463 -
041464 - She feels the Welch proposal to develop planning for consultant scope
041465 - after approval of the project is not effective, because NSF staff do
041466 - not provide continuing oversight of the project.  NSF either approves
041467 - or rejects proposals.  She seemed to indicate that if a project is
041468 - approved, there is no further interaction with NSF staff on justifying
041469 - budget allocations, as contemplated by the Welch proposal in Part 7.
041470 - ref OF 19
041471 -
041472 - We did not discuss future consideration to differentiate procedures as
041473 - between sustaining and disruptive technologies under reasoning on
041474 - 990527. ref SDS 16 4720
041475 - ..
041476 - Sally advised that efforts this year, transitioning to
041477 - electronic submission of proposals, has caused disruption from past
041478 - processes. On 990614 Joe mentioned this matter. ref SDS 17 2623  As a
041479 - result, NSF is permitting latitude on meeting format requirements.
041480 -
041481 - Therefore, despite lack of detail on consultant fees, the proposal on
041482 - Communication Metrics will be submitted for review on the merits.
041483 -
041484 - Sally indicated that the lack of specificity in consultant budgets may
041485 - impact the reviewer's recommendations.
041486 -
041487 -
041488 -
041489 -
0415 -

SUBJECTS
Commercial Partners for Phase II Funding
Partners to Support Development

0605 -
060501 -  ..
060502 - Industry Contacts to Accelerate Development of Communication Metrics
060503 -
060504 - Sally said that even if the proposal is not funded, the review process
060505 - may yield fruitful contacts and ideas that can move the innovation
060506 - forward to commercial success.
060507 -
060508 - Along these lines, she suggested contacting a former NSF grantee...
060509 -
060510 -
060511 -                            Dan Palanza
060512 -
060513 -
060514 -    ...dan@capecod.net
060515 -
060516 - Evidently Dan did successful research on some sort of new approach or
060517 - technology for double entry accounting.  Sally feels Dan may be a good
060518 - partner for Communication Metrics, particularly with respect to
060519 - gaining commercial support that is needed for Phase II.
060520 -
060521 - Submitted ref DIT 2 to Dan Palanza, linked to this record, and to the
060522 - Technical Proposal. ref OF 14
060523 -
060524 -      [On 990710 talked to Dan. ref SDS 29 0001]
060525 -
060526 - Submitted ref DIT 3 to Roy Roebuck who may be another potential source
060527 - of support from work on 990427, ref SDS 14 0001, and favorable review
060528 - on 990621. ref SDS 21 0001
060529 -
060530 -
060531 -  ..
060532 - Commercial Funding Phase II Requirements
060533 -
060534 - Sally noted NSF's primary intent to facilitate creating an enterprise
060535 - for marketing innovations, as set out in Phase II requirements for
060536 - commercialization. ref OF 7 1024
060537 -
060538 - Sally suggested seeking out small commitments from commercial firms,
060539 - to support Phase II research, in the event a Phase I grant is awarded.
060540 -
060541 -     [On 990713 discussed with Morris at Intel. ref SDS 30 2774]
060542 -
060543 -     [On 990713 called USACE. ref SDS 31 2968]
060544 -
060545 -     [On 990713 sent letter to Dave Bounchristiani. ref SDS 32 0001
060546 -
060547 -     [On 990721 Tom provides information on USACE. ref SDS 34 0001]
060548 -
060549 -     [On 990906 presented NSF issue to Dave at Intel. ref SDS 36 9055]
060550 -
060551 -     [On 990912 followed up with Morris. ref SDS 37 1462]
060552 -
060553 -     [On 991019 sent letter to Bill DeHart at PG&E. ref SDS 38 0001]
060554 -
060555 - She pointed out there are often middle managers who are intrigued by
060556 - an innovation, like Communication Metrics, and who have authority to
060557 - commit $50K plus or minus, without further approval, but they cannot
060558 - get $200K - $400K, because they do not understand the technology well
060559 - enough to explain it to a boss or a budget approval panel.
060560 -
060561 -     [On 990710 discussed this point with Dan Palanza. ref SDS 29 3127]
060562 - ..
060563 - I noted this challenge is cited in the "Innovator's Dilemma"
060564 - reviewed on 990527. ref SDS 16 0703
060565 -
060566 - She feels Communication Metrics fits this model, since as pointed out
060567 - in the proposal, it takes experience using Communication Metrics to
060568 - understand it, and no one has experience.  When people get experience,
060569 - the realization is far different from what they expected, as reported,
060570 - for example, by USACE on 961101. ref SDS 7 8888  So developing an
060571 - experience base requires working at a budget approval level that does
060572 - not require escalation up the chain of command.
060573 -
060574 - I mentioned experience with the Corps of Engineers, PG&E (the utility
060575 - company in Northern California), and with contacts at Intel, reflect
060576 - Sally's point.
060577 -
060578 - Modest initial budgets were approved locally, and favorable results
060579 - were recognized.  But, when moved to a higher arena, approval was
060580 - stymied because senior people, who have not worked with Communication
060581 - Metrics, do not have time to understand the process.  They refuse to
060582 - believe favorable results, e.g., USACE. ref DRP 1 6172, that conflict
060583 - with "common sense" derived from experience bereft of exposure to
060584 - metrics for communication.  An example is on 941230. ref SDS 2 9954
060585 - Another example is Xerox developing the "mouse" perpherial, and senior
060586 - management refused to support it, allowing first Apple, then Microsoft
060587 - to capitalize on a key technology for the emerging PC industry, as
060588 - reviewed on 960612. ref SDS 6 7744
060589 -
060590 - Helping people acquire "help" adding "intelligence" to management, is
060591 - a miracle, ref SDS 11 7315, because budget approval processes are
060592 - geared to sustaining technologies, and this denies access to
060593 - improvements from disruptive technologies.  Traditional resistance to
060594 - better tools and methods is compounded by the fact that, in this case,
060595 - "management" is the target of improvement.  Managers fear and deny
060596 - change is needed in their work practice, as reported by Andy Grove, at
060597 - Intel, reviewed on 980307. ref SDS 9 3740  Another factor is that
060598 - "help" for management, means improving the ability to think, remember
060599 - and communicate.  Executives do not have time to think, as related on
060600 - 970910. ref SDS 8 3479  So, without giving it much thought, they think
060601 - "thinking" cannot be improved, and refuse to entertain a conceptual
060602 - framework in which it can, because they do not have enough time for
060603 - "off the wall" ideas, as reported on 990505. ref SDS 15 0778
060604 -
060605 - Essentially, managers have to be "tricked" into being helped.
060606 -
060607 -     [On 990710 discussed with Dan Palanza. ref SDS 29 3127]
060608 -
060609 - Grove describes this in a different context, as change creeping up
060610 - with "little cat feet," in his book...
060611 -
060612 -
060613 -                      Only the Paranoid Survive
060614 -
060615 -
060616 - ... ref SDS 9 2680  Grove recognizes the value of experimenting with
060617 - new ideas and methods, and extols managers to be leaders; but, it is
060618 - still hard to help people overcome organizational viscosity to apply
060619 - sound management practice. ref SDS 9 3416
060620 - ..
060621 - The game is to acquire credible support, and this requires a
060622 - credible source to work with the methodology to grasp the power, and
060623 - then spread the news in a credible way.  NSF may be able to help with
060624 - this process.
060625 -
060626 -
060627 -
060628 -
0607 -
0608 -

SUBJECTS
Reviewers, Section 4.2
Tom Landauer, 990614
Steve Pinker, 990629

1006 -
100601 -  ..
100602 - Steve Pinker, Tom Landauer to Review Proposal
100603 -
100604 - Sally asked if I know Steve Pinker?
100605 -
100606 - I explained I do not know Steve.  I reviwed his book...
100607 -
100608 -
100609 -                       How the Mind Works
100610 -
100611 -
100612 - ...which is cited in the Technical Proposal Part 2, ref OF 14, because
100613 - my technology supports key aspects of human "intelligence" set out in
100614 - Steve's book. ref OF 1 0582
100615 -
100616 - Sally related a presentation Steve made to NSF within the past year or
100617 - so.  She did not attend; but, Steve's remarks were well received.  He
100618 - is highly respected at NSF, and so would be a good choice to review
100619 - the proposal on Communication Metrics.
100620 -
100621 - On 990329 I sent Steve an email congratulating him on an excellent
100622 - book, and requested the computer file for the book, so I would not
100623 - have to spend a lot of time scanning and fixing up scanned material.
100624 - ref SDS 13 9382  I called and left a voice mail for him about the
100625 - letter and why I wanted the file.  I did not hear back.
100626 -
100627 - If NSF feels there may be merit in the Welch proposal, I will follow
100628 - up with Steve to let him know I listed him as a possible reviewer.
100629 -
100630 - On 950710 I contacted Tom Landauer about his book...
100631 -
100632 -
100633 -                    The Trouble with Computers
100634 -
100635 -
100636 - ...that showed he was thinking along the same lines as my technology.
100637 - A key discovery, was that Tom is a cognitive scientist, and this field
100638 - provides the conceptual framework for the SDS program, POIMS and
100639 - Communication Metrics. ref SDS 3 4791
100640 -
100641 - We kept in touch, and on 960229 Tom submitted his paper on "Plato's
100642 - Problem" that explains a technique called Latent Semantic Analysis,
100643 - ref SDS 4 0786, which is an analog of human learning processes, i.e.,
100644 - intelligence.
100645 -
100646 - Review on 960518 illustrates this point. ref SDS 5 3734
100647 -
100648 - Tom's work supports Jeremy Campbell's book, the...
100649 -
100650 -
100651 -                        Improbable Machine
100652 -
100653 -
100654 - ...reviewed on 900303. ref SDS 1 4284
100655 -
100656 - Review on 990303 of George Miller's original work in 1954, provided
100657 - more evidence that SDS supports important aspects of intelligence...
100658 - ref SDS 12 0920
100659 - ..
100660 - Sally knows Tom Landauer
100661 -
100662 - I think she said he was a graduate student, when she was an undergrad,
100663 - and she has followed his career at Bell Labs, which later became
100664 - Bellcore.  Tom is now the head of Cognitive Science at University of
100665 - Colorado.
100666 -
100667 - She indicated advantages of getting peer review and associating with
100668 - people who can contribute to the project in the event of NSF approval.
100669 -
100670 -      [On 990716 contacted Mark Haselkorn. ref SDS 33 0001]
100671 -
100672 -      [On 990729 received comments from Mark. ref SDS 35]
100673 -
100674 - Sally suggested visiting with Tom about him talking to Steve Pinker on
100675 - reviewing the Welch proposal.  She feels both would be excellent to
100676 - present Communication Metrics to the NSF panel in Washington.
100677 -
100678 -      [On 990707 Sally advised that Phase I review does not involve SRO
100679 -      suggesting a reviewer. ref SDS 28 0001]
100680 -
100681 - On 990614 called Tom's office, and at that time he was vacationing in
100682 - Italy. ref SDS 18 0001
100683 -
100684 - I explained that both Steve and Tom are listed as possible reviewers
100685 - in my letter to NSF, ref DIP 17, as set out in the letter to NSF
100686 - submitting the proposal, ref DIP 16 8556, on 990616. ref SDS 20 0001
100687 -
100688 - Sally said she has not seen this letter in the proposal documents.
100689 -
100690 - I will send her a link to the letter.
100691 -
100692 -     [Letter is provided by link in ref DIT 1 today.]
100693 -
100694 - She feels Tom would be an effective reviewer, and that if he would
100695 - talk to Steve about supporting the proposal, this might assist NSF in
100696 - approving the proposal.
100697 -
100698 -     [On 990630 called and sent letter to Tom with link to this record.
100699 -     ref SDS 26 0001]
100700 -
100701 -    [On 990706 Tom does not have time to do the review; professional
100702 -    differences would make Tom ineffectual as a contact with Steve
100703 -    Pinker on this matter. ref SDS 27 7632]
100704 -
100705 -
100706 -
100707 -
1008 -

SUBJECTS
Keywords in Project Summary

1104 -
110401 -  ..
110402 - Key Word Listing Part of Project Summary
110403 -
110404 - Sally did not mention, today, the need for a listing of keywords to
110405 - identify the proposal, which is part of the Project Summary prepared
110406 - online.  Since Joe requested, we prepare the proposal off-line, i.e.,
110407 - in printed format, and since there is no format for keywords, as
110408 - reported on 990615, ref SDS 19 1289, this was submitted separately.
110409 -
110410 - On 990616 notified NSF of key word listing, ref SDS 20 9044, which was
110411 - developed and is shown at ref SDS 19 4690
110412 -
110413 - Mention this issue in the letter today. ref DIT 1 4307
110414 -
110415 -
110416 -
110417 -
110418 -
Distribution. . . . See "CONTACTS"