THE WELCH COMPANY
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S U M M A R Y


DIARY: March 19, 1990 09:34 PM Monday; Rod Welch

Reviewed article on "automated reasoning."

1...Summary/Objective
2...Memory Driving Force of Human Reasoning
3...Time Degrades Human Memory, Assumptions Fill in Missing Information
4...Reasoning in the Present Depends on Memory of Past
5...Accurate Information Impact Quality of Reasoning and Analysis
6...Limited Time Employs Paradigms that Produce False Knowledge
7...Reasoning Supports Analysis of Alternatives and Alignment
8...Verbal Communication Relies on Implicit Assumptions of Information
9...Parametric Reasoning Applies Bayseian, Neural Networks


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CONTACTS 

SUBJECTS
Human Memory, SDS Emulates
POIMS definition, 930408
Intelligence Converts Information into Knowledge
Dilemma Thinking v. Doing Immediate Action to be Effective Competent
Planning v. Doing Knowledge Deferred Reward Thinking Doing Informatio
Architecture Human Thought Information and Knowledge
Memory Drives Human Reasoning Productivity Aids Intelligence Millie R
Reasoning Driven by Memory Productivity Aids Intelligence Millie Rela
Memory Drives Human Reasoning Productivity Aids Intelligence Millie R

2911 -
2911 -    ..
2912 - Summary/Objective
2913 -
291301 - Follow up ref SDS 4 0000, ref SDS 3 0000.
291302 -
291303 - Excellent article on strengths and weaknesses of human reasoning,
291304 - which is another word for "intelligence."  Time impacts quality of
291305 - information through limited memory.  It impacts reasoning process by
291306 - limiting the amount of mental resources applied to a given body of
291307 - information.  Limited time causes the mind to employ "default"
291308 - reasoning, commonly called "common sense," also called paradigms or
291309 - rules about the way the world usually works, based on experience.
291310 - ref SDS 0 6603  Mathamatical models using Bayseian analysis can
291311 - emulate human reasoning, but are limited by inability to emulate human
291312 - experience. ref SDS 0 1102
291313 -
291314 -      [On 950925 reviewed human cognition that uses sequence to
291315 -      recognize patterns in complexity. ref SDS 11 3888]
291316 -
291318 -  ..
2914 -
2915 -
2916 - Progress
2917 -
291701 - An article published in IEEE Jan/Feb 1990 issue on page 202 - 224
291702 - seems to support analysis on 900303 from Jeremy Campbell's book on the
291703 - process, strengths and weaknesses of human reasoning, i.e., thinking,
291704 - intelligence. ref OF 8 0001
291705 -
291707 -  ..
291708 - Memory Driving Force of Human Reasoning
291709 - Time Degrades Human Memory, Assumptions Fill in Missing Information
291710 -
291711 - The paper explains that reasoning (similar to "analysis" see below,
291712 - ref SDS 0 6603) in the real world deals with imperfect information.
291713 - ref OF 8 0001  Memory of heuristic assumptions and defaults in the
291714 - reasoning process (called "paradigms") allow humans to make inferences
291715 - and reach conclusions based on imperfect information. ref OF 8 0002
291717 -  ..
291718 - As a result, memory of chronology that shows sequence of cause and
291719 - effect is a primary driving force of human intelligence that reasons
291720 - by selecting appropriate paradigms based on contextual experience.
291721 - Theory of knowledge that memory of experience can apply paradigms
291722 - according to contextual frames to expand limited information into
291723 - "reasonable" assumptions about the future, i.e., likely consequences,
291724 - aligns with research on 900303, ref SDS 4 5443, where Campbell
291725 - explains the mind uses "common sense" to understand information by
291726 - filling in gaps, ref SDS 4 6831, but pays a price in accuracy, because
291727 - human memory degrades over time, ref SDS 4 4456, unless there is
291728 - continual reinforcement provided by culture, or there is a way to
291729 - augment intelligence by capturing and organizing memory into an
291730 - effective knowledge resource. ref SDS 4 4456 and ref SDS 4 6689
291732 -  ..
291733 - POIMS explaines how SDS aids intelligence. ref OF 1 0367
291734 -
291735 -      [On 931130 Drucker cites analysis as critical responsibility of
291736 -      managers. ref SDS 9 7911]
291737 -
291738 -      [On 931130 Drucker cites time as most perishable resource.
291739 -      ref SDS 8 8822
291741 -       ..
291742 -      [On 950204 SDS improves analysis under a concept of thinking
291743 -      through writing. ref SDS 10 4995]
291745 -       ..
291746 -      [On 950925 reviewed human cognition that uses sequence to
291747 -      recognize patterns in complexity. ref SDS 11 3888
291749 -       ..
291750 -      [On 950925 creativity explained as reperceiving what has been
291751 -      thought to be completely understood, which reflects POIMS concept
291752 -      of using alphabet for "intelligence" rather than reasoning alone.
291753 -      ref SDS 11 1683
291755 -       ..
291756 -      [On 960518 mechanism for knowledge acquisition, commonly called
291757 -      learning, explained in cognitive science as vector dimension-
291758 -      matching for induction, commonly called "guessing," operating on
291759 -      memory of experience selected according to context. ref SDS 13
291760 -      GS58
291762 -       ..
291763 -      [On 970707 conventional management systems degrade to entropy and
291764 -      fail because communication is too complex. ref SDS 14 0108
291766 -       ..
291767 -      [On 020608 knowledge define case study hard for people to
291768 -      grasp, ref SDS 30 CC6J; philosophy grounding for "Knowledge
291769 -      Management" reviewed 050115, ref SDS 33 SF5K, correlates with
291770 -      cognitive science reviewed 960518, ref SDS 13 GS58, management
291771 -      tasks considered 000307, ref SDS 22 767G, and physical science
291772 -      locality principle power of knowledge predicts and controls the
291773 -      future, reviewed on 040312, ref SDS 32 YH4G
291775 -       ..
291776 -      [On 040312 research on science explains locality principle that
291777 -      indicates energy exchange connecting cause and effect yields
291778 -      the power of knowledge to control the future. ref SDS 32 YH4G
291779 -
291781 -  ..
291782 - Reasoning in the Present Depends on Memory of Past
291783 - Accurate Information Impact Quality of Reasoning and Analysis
291784 -
291785 - The time frame problem deals with evolving context that impacts
291786 - decisions. ref OF 8 2379  Only the present instant can be perceived,
291787 - and that only partially, since no one can remember the past nor
291788 - predict the future in full and accurate detail. ref OF 8 3900
291790 -  ..
291791 - Insufficient time to collect and consider information before decisions
291792 - are made, ref OF 8 9718, reflects a growing problem of information
291793 - overload cited in POIMS. ref OF 1 1299  Since the human mind
291794 - automatically fills in missing information, false knowledge is created
291795 - that is hidden from the conscious mind, as related in the record on
291796 - 900303 reviewing Campbell's book. ref SDS 4 4456
291798 -      ..
291799 -     This suggests an advantage for SDS to aid reasoning by improving
291800 -     the ability to understand the past accurately, and to anticipate
291801 -     the future based on the rule "past is prologue," cited in POIMS,
291802 -     ref OF 1 1112, and discussed with Ross on 890809. ref SDS 1 HN4G
291804 -      ..
291805 -     The author of this paper seems to overlook the core element of
291806 -     human reasoning:  chronology, i.e., sequence, also chronologies of
291807 -     cause and effect.
291808 -
291809 -       [On 000515 Peirce's semiotics explains memory of past enhances
291810 -       understanding of present, and planning for future. ref SDS 23
291811 -       5282
291813 -        ..
291814 -       [On 000517 SDS enhances memory, meeting at Intel. ref SDS 24
291815 -       5083
291817 -        ..
291818 -       [On 000713 example SDS improves memory, yields theory of
291819 -       knowledge. ref SDS 26 4267
291821 -        ..
291822 -       [On 000709 Bill DeHart reported SDS improves management because
291823 -       the design provides better organization than other methods.
291824 -       ref SDS 25 1029
291826 -        ..
291827 -       [On 010425 SDS utopia compared with using other methods.
291828 -       ref SDS 28 EP7F
291830 -        ..
291831 -       [On 010916 SDS organization method obviously works to enable
291832 -       amazing memory. ref SDS 29 0001
291833 -
291834 -
291836 -  ..
291837 - Limited Time Employs Paradigms that Produce False Knowledge
291838 - Reasoning Supports Analysis of Alternatives and Alignment
291839 -
291840 - Reasoning consumes time and mental effort, which must be weighed
291841 - against expected gains of resulting decisions, and the opportunity
291842 - cost of using these resources differently. ref OF 8 5888
291843 -
291844 -     [On 010420 "cognitive overhead" relates the burden of allocating
291845 -     time for "thinking" to create links that aid analysis, but take a
291846 -     lot of time to construct using conventional tools, to opening
291847 -     links that lack granular addressability and precision access, and
291848 -     further to construct "metadata" that organizes work history with
291849 -     contextual boundaries that enables people to find critical details
291850 -     based on situational awareness. ref SDS 27 SU6K
291852 -  ..
291853 - When time is short, default reasoning is employed, which is another
291854 - term for cursory analysis, or consideration, that applies a larger
291855 - proportion of assumptions and paradigms rather than check the record.
291856 - ref OF 8 5889  The result is "false knowledge" that presents a dilemma
291857 - comparing the cost of investing time to avoid mistakes, or investing
291858 - more time to fix mistakes, commonly called expediting, and bumbling,
291859 - compared to the cost of delay under the common rule that separates the
291860 - "quick and the dead," noted in NWO. ref OF 2 14IA
291862 -      ..
291863 -     [On 921021 Cal Tech seminar explained problem. ref SDS 7 7486 and
291864 -     ref SDS 7 1661
291866 -      ..
291867 -     [On 931130 Drucker cites analysis as critical responsibility of
291868 -     managers. ref SDS 9 7911
291870 -      ..
291871 -     [...creativity explained as reperceiving what has been thought to
291872 -     be completely understood, which reflects POIMS concept of using
291873 -     alphabet for "intelligence" rather than reasoning alone.
291874 -     ref SDS 11 1683]
291876 -  ..
291877 - Unavailable information increases the degree of assumptions, which
291878 - weakens understanding and therefore increases the risk of error.
291879 - ref OF 8 1734
291880 -
291881 -     [On 960406 report nobody can find anything. ref SDS 12 4249
291882 -
291883 -     [On 010425 Morris explained SDS is a utopia compared to other
291884 -     technologies, because everything is in the right place at the
291885 -     right time. ref SDS 28 EP7F
291887 -      ..
291888 -     [On 0201108 Bill Gates reported a new project at Microsoft to help
291889 -     people find things on the computer. ref SDS 31 EF5I
291891 -  ..
291892 - Problem handling applies default assumptions about accuracy of
291893 - information and probabilities. ref OF 8 2200
291895 -  ..
291896 - Additional context clarifies interpretations to avoid ambiguity.
291897 - ref OF 8 6960
291898 -
291899 -     [On 980307 Andy Grove, CEO of Intel, takes copious notes for
291900 -     context that avoids ambiguity of mental maps. ref SDS 15 3668 and,
291901 -     ref SDS 15 7571]
291903 -      ..
291904 -     This suggests an advantage for SDS to aid reasoning by improving
291905 -     the speed of obtaining accurate information.
291906 -
291908 -  ..
291909 - Verbal Communication Relies on Implicit Assumptions of Information
291910 -
291911 - Communication in meetings and calls through conversation is formulated
291912 - according to cultural conventions of implied understanding that
291913 - support the transfer of information based on what was said and what
291914 - was not said. ref OF 8 6600 and ref OF 8 1591
291916 -  ..
291917 - Shared "assumptions" or meaning is critical to effective verbal
291918 - communication. ref OF 8 5880  However, it also supports transferring
291919 - false knowledge, rather than accurate information.  This presents a
291920 - delimma of knowledge management.
291921 -
291922 -
291924 -  ..
291925 - Parametric Reasoning Applies Bayseian, Neural Networks
291926 -
291927 - Mathamatical (parametric) models for propositional logic, integer
291928 - linear programming, fuzzy set theory, Bayesian probability, Pearl's
291929 - causal networks, statistical classifiers, neural networks, logic
291930 - circuits, have limited ability to replicate human cognition,
291931 - ref OF 8 6097, because...
291933 -        ..
291934 -    •  parameters and formulas must be predefined because there is no
291935 -       mechanism for defining new parameters or formulas
291937 -        ..
291938 -       Reflects the fact that human reasoning is based on a range of
291939 -       organic human needs, which cannot be fully programmed into a
291940 -       computer.
291941 -
291942 -         [On 950925 AI projects discover difficulty of programming a
291943 -         computer to accomplish human thinking. ref SDS 11 0583]
291945 -        ..
291946 -    •  meanings of parameters are inaccessible because they are merely
291947 -       tokens related through formulas
291948 -       ..
291949 -       Reflects the fact that meaning ultimately is derived from
291950 -       alignment with fulfillment of human needs, which cannot be fully
291951 -       programmed into a computer.
291953 -  ..
291954 - Relationships among objects must be determined. ref OF 8 0850
291956 -  ..
291957 - A parametric system can be augmented with feedback and nonmonotonicity
291958 - to exhibit sequential reasoning like a Turing machine; but this voids
291959 - the declarative nature of parametric models, negating the source of
291960 - their power. ref OF 8 0850
291961 -
291962 -
291963 -
291964 -
291965 -
2920 -