October 15, 2001
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03 00050 61 01101501
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Mr. Morris E. Jones
Business Unit Manager
morris.jones@intel.com
Cable Network Operation
Intel Corporation
350 East Plumeria; Mail Stop CHP3-105
San Jose, CA 95124
Subject:
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SDS Endorse to Intel R&D for Intelligence Initiative
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Wayne Wetzel's Evaluation of SDS at DNRC Past 10 Years
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Dear Morris,
Per
your request
on October 6, 2001 I am submitting
under separate cover and via regular mail,
Wayne Wetzel's
recent report on experience using SDS the past 10 years at DNRC.
The report provides ideas for recommending
consideration of SDS to David Tennenhouse
for supporting Intel's work on CITRIS, in accordance with
my letter
to you on September 28, 2001.
Additionally, several other documents are enclosed that may be useful in
considering this matter.....
-
Wayne's
initial
report on April 19, 1990 explaining SDS support for managing the
Broadwater Dam project in 1988, 1989.
- Supreme Court
Justice Stanley Mosk
on need for SDS, July 19, 1994
-
Morri Smyth
on using SDS for software engineering, March 15, 1993
-
Bill DeHart
on using SDS at PG&E, December 30, 1994
Justice Mosk, who was Attorney General for the State of California during the
Brown administration in the late 50s and early 60s,
first discussed SDS
on November 23, 1991. Later that day is when you first characterized the
Welch Management Method
that integrates management tasks to provide a new way of working.
A week or so later on November 30, 1991
Justice Mosk and I
met
in San Francisco. After
seeing SDS demonstrated,
Justice Mosk, also, noted that SDS is a new way of working. A few years later I
submitted the
New World Order
paper to show progress on meeting new
opportunities and dangers that arise from technology that
compresses time and distance. Justice Mosk responded with the
letter
dated July 19, 1994 commending work to restore the balance between generating
information and adding analysis (also "intelligence") that produces
useful knowledge, which SDS is designed to support.
Morri Smyth's letter
is included to support
your assessment
on April 25, 2001 that SDS is more effective than other methods for improving
management.
Points you might raise.....
- The record on September 27, 1995 cites
Intel's goal
for computers to
support daily management similar to the way SDS integrates scheduling and
reporting.
- Since that time wide ranging industry efforts to produce Knowledge
Management have failed with
announcement last year by IBM
on November 30,
2000 that work to convert Lotus Notes into a useful program for daily
management was not successful. Research efforts at LANL and at SRI have
also been unsuccessful. Software engineers and computer scientists have
been unable to formulate a working model that
distinguishes knowledge from information,
as reported at SRI on June 15, 2000. This failure has occurred
largely for the
reasons you set out
in a call on September 24, 2001.
- During all this time, beginning in approximately 1983 Rod Welch
developed a software
program called the Schedule Diary System
(SDS) that supports the management science of Communication Metrics,
which Welch formulated to add an "intelligence" role to
daily management by integrating key tasks so that
each supports the other (see
history
of SDS on July 23, 2000).
POIMS
describes
theory
and
implementation. A
breakthrough is the design that integrates time management with
information management to yield chronologies of cause and effect based
on context. SDS does not automate human thinking sought by AI engineers;
it leverage human intelligence using
a flexible structure that makes it fast and easy to produce high
quality analysis. An example is the review of Andy Grove's
book
Only
the Paranoid Survive.
Another example of SDS work product is the record of a
meeting
at Intel
September 27, 1995 preparing for a professional event.
- The
US Army Corps of Engineers
published a report on March 28, 1997
that found Communication Metrics using SDS provides
effective intelligence that saves time and money. Later on October 7,
1997, the Corps reported SDS is
cost effective
with ROI of 10:1.
- Earlier
PG&E
made a similar finding on a pilot test.
- Recently on July 17, 2001 the
Deputy Director
of DNRC in the State of
Montana issued a favorable report on their 10 year experience using SDS.
- Since no other company or research effort has succeeded in creating
intelligence support, the record on SDS over the past 20 years may
justify consideration by Intel for using SDS to manage the CITRIS
program. If this proves successful, Intel would be positioned to provide
intelligence capability that significantly strengthens national security
at a time when demand for this support is increasing following tragic
events of September 11, 2001.
Notice this approach does not require you to mention personal involvement.
You are merely facilitating a contact on a matter of great weight to the
nation, which could redound to great credit and reward to Intel.
On the other hand, if you wish to claim rightful credit for helping bring SDS
forward, cite your
analysis
on November 23, 1991 and recent
review
on April 25, 2001, which are supported by the record.
Again, I apologize for difficulty caused by having links to click, cited
in our call on October 6, 2001, and hope we can work through this to get
something done. Since this letter is being sent by US mail, you need not deal
with links.
On July 16, 2000
Professor Joseph Ransdell
wrote that Com Metrics presents a
theory of management based on recognizing communication as a process, which has
eluded discovery since the 17th century. He urged not to get discouraged by
slow progress, because SDS is ambitious. You framed the same challenge in our
call on September 24, 2001 noting that
nobody else has discovered the value of intelligence,
which aligns with
experience at Intel
reported on July 17, 1999.
Now tragically, it has turned out that intelligence is neither funny, alien
nor overkill, as the nation scrambles to fill the gap in
capability reported loud and clear
since events of September 11, 2001, and which now confirm the
alarm raised three (3) years ago on August 15, 1998.
As an alternative to sending a letter to Dave, possibly you could facilitate a
meeting with him, or his assistant, if you feel that is easier.
Please let me know if you need further help on this. If you want me to make
this contact without your support, please let me know. Thanks very much for
thinking about this.
Sincerely,
THE WELCH COMPANY
Rod Welch
rowelch@attglobal.net
Copy to:
- John Deneen
- Pat Lincoln, SRI