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S U M M A R Y


DIARY: August 15, 1998 10:22 AM Saturday; Rod Welch

US Intelligence failures, too much information, not enough understanding.

1...Summary/Objective
2...Intelligence Mistakes Show Information Needs Connections in SDS
..........U.S. Intelligence failures stem from too much information,
..........not enough understanding.
3..."Intelligence" Discovers Meaning of Information
....Communication Metrics
...........uses technology to improve "listening" by aligning what is
........... identifies what is important based on alignment with law,
........... provides organization to support future alignment and
4...Government Intelligence Becomes Banal, Inert, Self-serving


..............
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CONTACTS 

SUBJECTS
Management Productivity Reduced by Technology
Paperless Office Failed
Virtual Office, Networked Computers
Productivity Impeded Fast Change of
New Realities Information Overload
Intelligence Adds Value to Information,
Understanding Intelligence Foreign Policy
Intelligence Analysis Gap National Security
Vigilence Costly, Seems Like Overkill
Proactive Problem Handling Resisted Small Problems Ignored, Slippery
National Security Performance Exceeds Care About Comfort Ease of Use
Intelligence Failures Due to Gap in Analysis of Information Data

2414 -    ..
2415 - Summary/Objective
2416 -
241601 - Follow up ref SDS 70 0000, ref SDS 64 0000.
241602 -
241603 - Received article that "Intelligence" failures stem from too much
241604 - information and not enough understanding.  The solution is improving
241605 - analysis, which is supported by Communication Metrics.
241606 -
241607 -    [On 980917 Ross does not have time to think about "intelligence."
241608 -    ref SDS 73 5313]
241609 -
241610 -    [On 001011 proposal submitted to correct problem. ref SDS 79 WZD8
241611 -
241612 -
241613 -
241614 -  ..
2417 -
2418 -
2419 - Analysis
2420 -
242001 - Intelligence Mistakes Show Information Needs Connections in SDS
242002 -
242003 - Article, ref OF 9 0000, on page 28 in Aug 3, 1998 issue of National
242004 - Review published on 980803 is entitled...
242005 -
242006 -          Know Nothings
242007 -          U.S. Intelligence failures stem from too much information,
242008 -          not enough understanding.
242009 -
242010 - The article attributes recent "Intelligence" failures, e.g......
242011 -
242012 -     •  India's nuclear test, ref OF 9 9558
242013 -     •  Replacement of Russia's cabinet officers, ref OF 9,
242014 -
242015 - ...to over-reliance on electronic information gathering that produces
242016 - pictures and data, ref OF 9 0704 and ref OF 9 6886, but inadequate
242017 - analysis to understand the meaning and implications of information by
242018 - connecting the dots into patterns of cause and effect that reveal
242019 - intentions. ref OF 9 2488
242020 -
242021 - SDS is the only technology that provides cost effective support for
242022 - analysis of intelligence that aids national security, and more broadly
242023 - advances civilization, as reported on 921217, ref SDS 5 1829
242024 -
242025 - Communication Metrics is the only proven method of deployment, as
242026 - reported by USACE. ref DRP 5 6172
242027 -
242028 -    [On 980917 Ross does not have time to think about "intelligence."
242029 -    ref SDS 73 5313]
242030 -
242031 -    [On 991108 SDS advances basic literacy by adding a new dimension
242032 -    for using alphabet technology to create information that is
242033 -    converted into knowledge when integrated with time management.
242034 -    ref SDS 78 5628 and ref SDS 78 OU9O
242035 -
242036 -    [On 001011 proposal submitted to correct problem. ref SDS 79 WZD8
242037 -
242038 -    [On 010911 US attacked in New York, Pentagon, ref SDS 80 0001, lack
242039 -    of human intelligence for analysis cited as contributing factor in
242040 -    lowered national security posture. ref SDS 80 4M6K
242041 -
242042 - The distinction between pictures, "information" and "understanding"
242043 - (i.e., "knowledge") was reviewed on 940609. ref SDS 11 4933
242044 -
242045 - The need for investing in intelligence capability was discussed on
242046 - 890809. ref SDS 1 ZM7I and ref SDS 1 7499
242047 -
242048 - The Welch web page on Intelligence explains a solution. ref OF 7 1299
242049 -
242050 -
242051 -               http://www.welchco.com/00401.HTM
242052 -
242053 -
242054 - The New World Order... paper solves the problem of too much
242055 - information, not enough "knowledge."  ref OF 2 1675
242056 -
242057 -    POIMS defines "management" as planning to overcome limited span of
242058 -    attention. ref OF 1 4005
242059 -
242060 -    On 980808 analysis of "Intelligence" for the web site was
242061 -    developed. ref SDS 72 0615
242062 -
242063 - The author argues that deficiencies of U.S. Intelligence are severe.
242064 - ref OF 9 8623
242065 -
242066 -    Henry Kissinger complains that reliance on information technology
242067 -    without analysis produces "Alice in Wonderland" management. review
242068 -    on 940609, ref SDS 11 4238
242069 -
242070 -    Robert MacNamera complained there wasn't enough time to understand
242071 -    all the information. see review on 950417. ref SDS 17 5872
242072 -
242073 -    Johanna Neuman's book "Lights, Camera, War," explains intelligence
242074 -    fails when information moves too fast for analysis. ref SDS 24 9405
242075 -
242076 -    George Shultz urges anlaysis for effective "intelligence" because
242077 -    information is inadequate. review on 970402, ref SDS 36 8502
242078 -
242079 -    Andrew Grove's call for analysis in business shows the value of
242080 -    intelligence in all executive decisions. ref SDS 59 3668
242081 -
242082 -       [On 990303 scientific paper explains cause of "intelligence"
242083 -       problems. ref SDS 74 7410]
242084 -
242085 - Issues that require "intelligence", ref OF 9 4219, include...
242086 -
242087 -   •  What will happen in post-Suharto Indonesia
242088 -   •  Security of Russia's nuclear weapons (and scientists)
242089 -   •  China's intentions about ...anything outside its borders
242090 -   •  Japan's economic and trading strategies
242091 -   •  State of the North Korean regime
242092 -
242093 -  ..
242094 -
242095 - Additional "intelligence" needs, ref OF 9 9068, are listed as...
242096 -
242097 -   •  Intentions of Iran, North Korea, Libya, Syria, or Iraq
242098 -   •  Prepare for China's rise,
242099 -   •  Prepare for a Saudi secession crisis
242100 -   •  Prepare for a refugee crisis in Africa
242101 -   •  Prepare for war over oil in the Caucasus
242102 -
242103 - The correlation of "intelligence" with "preparation" reflects the
242104 - role of Communication Metrics, defined on 950327. ref SDS 15 8822
242105 -
242106 -
242107 -  ..
242108 - "Intelligence" Discovers Meaning of Information
242109 - -----------------------------------------------
242110 - The article says the U.S. foreign policy budget is not investing in
242111 - people to analyse information, ref OF 9 2488, and that reliance on
242112 - technological "intelligence" aparatus, including spy-satallites to
242113 - gather information is inadequate without analysis of the information
242114 - to discover meaning and intent from correlations, implications and
242115 - nuance, ref OF 9 6886, which is enabled by SDS under POIMS.
242116 - ref OF 1 2300
242117 -
242118 - On 980412 CBS news reported that information overload is paralyzing
242119 - productivity. ref SDS 61 8956
242120 -
242121 -    On 980722 the need to invest in people for "intelligence" work was
242122 -    discussed with Morris. ref SDS 67 0834
242123 -
242124 -    [On 980917 Ross does not have time to think about "intelligence."
242125 -    ref SDS 73 5313]
242126 -
242127 -    [On 990303 scientific paper explains limited span of attention is
242128 -    overwhelmed by information overload. ref SDS 74 6120
242129 -
242130 -    [On 990525 published guidelines and policy to generate good records
242131 -    ignorned because professionals don't like to document; management
242132 -    does not support requirements. ref SDS 75 0966]
242133 -
242134 -    [On 990625 doctors do not have time to execute policy and guidance
242135 -    for maintaining medical records. ref SDS 76 0889]
242136 -
242137 -    [On 990731 BINGO game makes intelligence funny. ref SDS 77 9066]
242138 -
242139 -    [On 010911 US attacked in New York, Pentagon, ref SDS 80 0001, lack
242140 -    of human intelligence for analysis cited as contributing factor in
242141 -    lowered national security posture. ref SDS 80 4M6K
242142 -
242143 - "Human intelligence" is explained as "...recruiting interesting
242144 - talkers, listening to them, and working out what is important in what
242145 - they said or did not say." ref OF 9 2488
242146 -
242147 -    The author's description of "recruiting interesting talkers" may be
242148 -    the traditional role of spying.
242149 -
242150 -    Com Metrics uses "intelligence" for listening to people who are not
242151 -    spys, but are colleagues, subordinates, customers and vendors, and
242152 -    "... working out what is important in what they said or did not
242153 -    say." ref OF 9 2488
242154 -
242155 - The author does not explain nor even suggest how to "...work out what
242156 - is important in what [sources] say or did not say."
242157 -
242158 -    Communication Metrics
242159 -
242160 -        ...uses technology to improve "listening" by aligning what is
242161 -        said with what has been said, written and done previously by
242162 -        the same person and by by others. ref SDS 14 6007
242163 -
242164 -        ... identifies what is important based on alignment with law,
242165 -        policy, regulation, standards, objectives and commitments.
242166 -
242167 -        ...  provides organization to support future alignment and
242168 -        assembling patterns of information that reveal future conduct
242169 -        and results.
242170 -
242171 -        ...summarizes to expedite understanding, as shown in the POIMS
242172 -        paper, ref OF 1 3955, and maintains links to relevant details
242173 -        in order to avoid drifting off course due to knowledge creep.
242174 -        see New World Order... ref OF 2 9449
242175 -
242176 -    Andrew Grove's call for analysis in business shows the value of
242177 -    intelligence in all executive settings. ref SDS 59 3668
242178 -
242179 - The author does not explain the difference between information and
242180 - "understanding."  How do foreign policy people know "understanding"
242181 - has been attained, as explained in the NWO... paper? ref OF 2 4925
242182 -
242183 - The author does not explain how to overcome fear of accountability
242184 - that impairs intelligence work. ref SDS 60 5065
242185 -
242186 -    The solution of strong leadership is developed in the review of
242187 -    Andrew Grove's book on 980307. ref SDS 59 2189
242188 -
242189 -
242190 -  ..
242191 - Government Intelligence Becomes Banal, Inert, Self-serving
242192 -
242193 - The author observes that "intelligence" which is essentially creative
242194 - work in identifying patterns and projecting future intentions, is
242195 - stifled by bureaucracy. ref OF 9 17529
242196 -
242197 - On 980412 CBS news reported that information overload is paralyzing
242198 - productivity. ref SDS 61 8956
242199 -
242200 -    [On 010911 US attacked in New York, Pentagon, ref SDS 80 0001, lack
242201 -    of human intelligence for analysis cited as contributing factor in
242202 -    lowered national security posture. ref SDS 80 4M6K
242203 -
242204 -
242205 -
242206 -
242207 -
242208 -
242209 -
242210 -
242211 -
2423 -