CONTACTS 

SUBJECTS
Killer App Improves Wordprocessing Spreadsheets, Larry Ellison
Intelligence People Want Technology to Improve Decisions, Landauer
Killer App Needed Improve Wordprocessing Spreadsheets Meetings Paris

2505 -
2505 -    ..
2506 - Summary/Objective
2507 -
250701 - Follow up ref SDS 46 7377.
250702 -
250703 - Received more information today on dynamics of the PC market, which
250704 - supplements prior discussions with Morris, and previous reviews of
250705 - Internet, Web, and Java technology to overcome the dominance of
250706 - Microsoft and Intel.  This subject was reviewed last June at ref SDS
250707 - 34 line 164 and in March from a Forbes ASAP article by George Gilder,
250708 - ref SDS 23 line 106.
250710 -  ..
250711 - There seems to be a contradition between attaining ease-of-use for
250712 - computers comparable to televisions and telephones, and providing
250713 - useful computing power to people.  There seems to be a concensus that
250714 - wordprocessing and spreadsheets are the two primary applications for
250715 - computers, and no other generic use has been identified.
250716 -
250717 -     [On 970227 discussion with Morris. ref SDS 54 0001
250718 -
250719 -
250721 -  ..
2508 -
2509 -
2510 - Progress
2511 -
251101 - NC v. PC Breaking Wintel Dominance with Internet
251102 -
251103 - This afternoon there was a TV program on channel 13 in San Francisco,
251104 - which is KTEH or something like that in San Jose, about a recent event
251105 - in France, I think it was the "IDC" or possibly "ITC" for Information
251106 - Technology Conference."   Bill Gates, chairman of Microsoft, and Larry
251107 - Ellison, chairman of Oracle, offered opposing views on the merits of
251108 - the PC and what is now called a "Network Computer," also, "NC," the
251109 - latter replacing "Teleputer" that was in vogue last year, reviewed on
251110 - 960304. ref SDS 23 6008).
251111 - ..
251112 - One aim is to overcome the dominance by Microsoft and Intel in
251113 - the PC market, called generally "Wintel" for "Windows and Intel
251114 - systems, by offering a low cost, less powerful, computer that uses the
251115 - Internet.
251116 -
251117 -      [On 970603 meeting with Dave Vannier at Intel addressed issue of
251118 -      low cost PCs. ref SDS 55 0001
251120 -  ..
251121 - This effort is led by Oracle, Netscape, Sun Microsystems and others to
251122 - provide a system of centralized servers accessed by the Internet for
251123 - data storage and Web technology, notably Java for an operating system
251124 - to select applications (called applets), a directory structure for
251125 - organization, and HTML links to navigate the system.
251126 -
251128 -  ..
251129 - Bill Gates noted wordprocessing, spreadsheets and Web Browsers are the
251130 - top selling software products.  He said integrating applications
251131 - improves usefulness, and this takes more power and better operating
251132 - systems, rather than scaled down systems, as promoted by advocates of
251133 - the NC model.  Gates argued that business customers want computers to
251134 - be more productive and easier to use, more than they want lower
251135 - prices.  Gates advised that Microsoft is working on making computers
251136 - easier to use by developing speech recognition and real-time visual
251137 - contact (commonly called video conferencing), and pointed out this
251138 - capability requires more computer power, and a robust operating system
251139 - for the foreseeable future, not less, as proposed by advocates for the
251140 - Network Computer.
251141 -
251142 -     [On 000706 Morris reported that Microsoft CEO, Steve Balmer,
251143 -     attributes success of Office applications to developing reliable
251144 -     integration. ref SDS 57 3740
251146 -  ..
251147 - An earlier speaker (possibly the president of Compaq) cautioned about
251148 - the risks of a "network computer" solution for storing sensitive
251149 - information on off-site equipment controlled by others, such as
251150 - financial, tax, budgets, proposals, business plans.
251152 -  ..
251153 - No one presented (in the part of the event that was telecast) the
251154 - issue of reliability of off-site storage, delayed access and reduced
251155 - performance due to wide-scale usage, nor did anyone cite the impact of
251156 - technical problems (continual bumbling), that would bring everybody's
251157 - activity to a halt, as currently occur on the Internet, reviewed on
251158 - 960304. ref SDS 23 9007
251159 -
251161 -  ..
251162 - Larry Ellison with Oracle spoke following Gates
251163 -
251164 - Ellison reported that he uses Microsoft Word and feels it is a good
251165 - program.  He worried about the lack of ideas for applying computer
251166 - power beyond wordprocessing and spreadsheets, cited by Gates, above.
251167 - ref SDS 0 6956  Ellison chided wasteful investment of talent, time and
251168 - treasure to create an endless variety of ways for identifying
251169 - misspelled words, using underline formats and colors in documents.
251170 - Larry rhetorically asked if there is an emerging career path to become
251171 - head of a department for new fonts, new ways to underline, new outline
251172 - formats, correct spelling and incorporate pictures into documents.
251173 -
251174 -     Technologies for wordprocessing, spreadsheets and graphics, like
251175 -     Powerpoint, help make everyone a publisher, but don't help anyone
251176 -     think of what to write nor remember what actions to take as a
251177 -     result of what is written, because documents are largely isolated
251178 -     from decisions that drive daily work, as reported last month on
251179 -     970107. ref SDS 42 4953
251180 -
251181 -        [On 060412 outline software represents two (2) worlds of SDS
251182 -        intelligence support for structure, order and pattern to create
251183 -        good ideas with accurate understanding of causation, essential
251184 -        for production; and wordprocessing for making ideas look good,
251185 -        essential for sales. ref SDS 63 3H5G
251187 -      ..
251188 -     Earlier on 950710 Tom Landauer observed in his book "The Trouble
251189 -     with Computers" that it is hard to design technology to do useful
251190 -     tasks for helping people think, remember and communicate.
251191 -     ref SDS 14 RP5R
251192 -
251193 -
251195 -  ..
251196 - Killer App Improve Wordprocessing Spreadsheets for Better Productivity
251197 - Computers Need New Compelling Application, Something More Useful
251198 -
251199 - Ellison supported Gate's call for integrated solutions, and further
251200 - maintained that there should be more useful things for computers to do
251201 - that improve productivity of people beyond information technology for
251202 - wordprocessing and spreadsheets, discussed by Gates, above,
251203 - ref SDS 0 6956, and cited by Ellison, ref SDS 0 3967, and thereby
251204 - echos calls for a powerful new "Killer Application" first reported on
251205 - 950927 during a meeting at Intel. ref SDS 17 3840
251207 -  ..
251208 - SDS enables a dynamic Knowledge Space, reported on 960620, that
251209 - expands legal practice of granular identification, ref SDS 33 3516, to
251210 - enable command and control of the work using a "well ordered record,"
251211 - explained in NWO, ref OF 2 E75I, for uniform reference in briefs,
251212 - judgements and case law.  Case management details for a lawsuit
251213 - present similarly to "construction details" that are managed using
251214 - well ordered plans and specifications for uniform reference.
251215 - ref SDS 33 CF67
251216 -
251217 -    [On 000718 SRI feels compelled to propose knowledge management,
251218 -    despite having reported that not enough is known to create this
251219 -    capability. ref SDS 58 4410
251221 -     ..
251222 -    [On 010622 writing makes people superhuman, is "killer app" of the
251223 -    ages. ref SDS 59 N668
251225 -     ..
251226 -    [On 040505 Paris peace conference in 1919 heads of state began
251227 -    holding meetings hoping to avoid keeping records, but found the top
251228 -    people in the world could not remember enough to perform daily
251229 -    work; eventually leadership yielded to an even stronger fear of
251230 -    accountable for failing to get anything done, and so a record of
251231 -    organizational memory was prepared and this change in management
251232 -    practice yielded results that expedited progress. ref SDS 62 MQ49
251234 -  ..
251235 - Larry further argued that the Information Age will not be fulfilled
251236 - until the 70% of American homes that do not presently have a computer,
251237 - get one.  He said this goal requires a cheaper and easier-to-use tool.
251238 - He likened the goal to achieve wider use of computers to the current
251239 - period which he said is characterized as the "Age of TV" because 90%
251240 - of American homes have a television.  In sum he seemed to feel the
251241 - market needs better uses for computers, and cheaper, easier-to-use
251242 - computers in order to reach the Information Age.
251243 -
251244 -    [On 970227 IT industry banking on fiberoptic and wireless
251245 -    telecommunications for next savior. ref SDS 54 0001
251247 -     ..
251248 -    [On 021108 Bill Gates announces new project to improve productivity
251249 -    of Microsoft programs by integrating commands. ref SDS 60 EFBE
251251 -     ..
251252 -    [On 040102 collaboration with Gary on improvements
251253 -    integrating functions for better productivity. ref SDS 61 KV4M
251255 -  ..
251256 - Information Age called for by Larry Ellison is similar to "Information
251257 - Revolution" discussed in the Van Kaspar article reviewed on 931008.
251258 - ref SDS 6 2526
251260 -  ..
251261 - Larry called for a support structure to make computers easier to use
251262 - based on the public utility model.  He noted that behind-the-scenes
251263 - infrastructure have historically made key utilities easy to apply,
251264 - beginning with construction by the Romans of an aquaduct system to
251265 - bring water within easy access of the population of Rome.  He cited
251266 - the highway system and the electrical grid system, and noted the use
251267 - of expensive satallites that support the telephone system, and a vast
251268 - array of camera and broadcasting equipment that supports ease-of-use
251269 - for television.
251270 -
251272 -        ..
251273 -       Operating System for People and Organizations is a new kind of
251274 -       support infrastructure that SDS provides so that computers make
251275 -       enterprise productive, discussed at Intel on 950927. ref SDS 17
251276 -       6295
251278 -  ..
251279 - Larry suggests a similar support infrastructure is needed to make
251280 - computers more useful, and proposed this can be achieved by replacing
251281 - the "Personal Computer" model with a Network Computer that uses the
251282 - Internet for disk storage, backup and applications.  Larry cited his
251283 - mother as an example of someone who can afford to buy even the best
251284 - $8,000 personal computer and the software available for using it, but
251285 - who prefers not to wade through all of the manuals needed to learn how
251286 - to use a personal computer effectively.
251288 -  ..
251289 - It was striking that Larry and Bill agreed the only useful functions
251290 - computers perform for most people are wordprocessing and spreadsheets,
251291 - which aligns with a meeting at Intel on 950927. ref SDS 17 8226
251293 -  ..
251294 - Bill made a single passing remark about powerful graphic creation
251295 - tools, but seemed to recognize that these are very specialized
251296 - applications.  His remarks about speech recognition simply related to
251297 - expected advantages from speaking operating commands to the computer,
251298 - and dictating rather than keying in wordprocessing text.  Larry
251299 - suggested ways to make computers cheaper and easier to use; but, he
251300 - provided no ideas nor any clues about what would make computers more
251301 - useful, and thereby resolve the frustration about lack of utility, as
251302 - implied by his opening attack on frivolous wordprocessing features.
251303 - Thus, the need for a "killer app" posed by the speakers was not
251304 - seriously taken up in their presentations.  This presents a vaccuum,
251305 - an opportunity for those with bold vision and the courage to act.
251307 -       ..
251308 -      [On 000513 Andy Grove could not identify a "killer app" target
251309 -      for the next wave of technology. ref SDS 56 5672
251311 -  ..
251312 - So far, mainstream vendors and software engineers have not been able
251313 - to transcend the model of knowledge as character assembly resulting in
251314 - meaningful text, to a more robust concept of integrating time and
251315 - information, per analysis of Dave Vannier's letter last year,
251316 - ref SDS 30 0745 and ref SDS 30 7722, applied by the schedule/diary
251317 - design of SDS to form a "thinking" environment, per discussion with
251318 - Morris on 970116 about the potential for investing sunshine profits to
251319 - create a new market, ref SDS 46 4695.  How many more people in the US
251320 - can benefit from tools that help them write letters and reports, and
251321 - assemble calculations faster and more accurately?  This issue was
251322 - discussed with Dave Vannier at Intel in our meeting on 950927 at
251323 - ref SDS 17 4619
251325 -  ..
251326 - Prominent industry leaders from the audience were interviewed after
251327 - the presentations by Bill and Larry.  Most said that Larry offered a
251328 - more convincing notion of useful technology, and one person suggested
251329 - Microsoft will soon be marketing a NC, similar to its history of
251330 - having downplayed the value of Web browsers and a short while later
251331 - jumping to the head of the band to a growing parade of advocates for
251332 - the Internet.
251334 -  ..
251335 - I wonder, however, if Larry's idea that the computer should be as easy
251336 - to use as a television does not overlook the distinction between the
251337 - purpose of using computers and the purpose of television? The latter
251338 - provides passive entertainment and hearing information about what
251339 - others believe is important, i.e., newsworthy, or even educational.
251340 - People feel, however, the computer should help them think better so
251341 - they can decide what entertainment to watch and what to do with new
251342 - information.  Larry failed to mention one aspect of the television
251343 - infrastructure which makes it appealing: the highly skilled,
251344 - professional writing, directing and rehersing needed for entertainment
251345 - programs to be appealing.  The hard work of creating, directing and
251346 - practicing to learn how to present a useful entertainment product is
251347 - withheld from the customer, because it is not needed to accomplish the
251348 - goal of entertainment.  In business, however, the purpose of buying a
251349 - computer is not to shield people from being creative, but rather to
251350 - enhance creativity and productivity by improving the ability to learn,
251351 - to manage, i.e., direct, and to attain consistent high quality
251352 - workmanship.  Therefore, a computer which is simply turned on and
251353 - watched, like a television, is not very useful for managing our
251354 - business nor improving our lives at home.
251356 -  ..
251357 - The ease of use objective is already being met by applying
251358 - microprocessors in a wide range of products to perform tasks that are
251359 - helpful to people without them having to learn anything or do anything
251360 - except turn on the switch, e.g., automobiles, televisions, traffic
251361 - systems, cellular phones and so on.  In general, however, the
251362 - fundamental thing people want the personal computer to do is to help
251363 - them "think" ref SDS 17 4839, and this is an interactive activity
251364 - which requires a measure of extended effort in order to push the
251365 - limits of current capability.  Growing knowledge requires interactive
251366 - experience, which therefore is at war with ease of use, since the
251367 - latter is a function of the effort people are willing to make.
251369 -  ..
251370 - This matter needs more consideration.  There may be a conflict between
251371 - what is needed to move the world forward, and what is needed to make a
251372 - sale.
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