THE WELCH COMPANY
440 Davis Court #1602
San Francisco, CA 94111-2496
415 781 5700



October 4, 2000

04 00067 61 00100401



Mr. Eric Armstrong
eric.armstrong@eng.sun.com
Armstrong Consulting
1200 Dale Avenue #100
Mountain View, CA 94040
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Subject:   Intelligence is Fun, Solves Huge Needs
Finding Customers for Knowledge Management

Dear Eric,

Your letter on September 27 asked why discussion has slowed on the DKR project in light of the huge need for better knowledge capability.
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The next day, Eugene reported that project objectives are now well understood, based on meetings you and others had with Doug. Eugene plans to explain this understanding, and further advised that production work can commence on the OHS. Since the team adopted the CDS requirements you prepared as the OHS on June 15, your call to start with an email deliverable can proceed.
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Several tasks may expedite progress...


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  1. Develop a rough production schedule for implementing your OHS requirements. What's first, what's second, what's concurrent, etc. Estimate approximate number of folks that might be needed and how long you expect each task will require. Indicate the skills needed for the tasks, and where the team can get the skills in an economy that has a low unemployment rate.

    This will begin to form a schedule and budget, which can be used to demonstrate ability to perform that justifies funding, per planning on March 24.
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    Coordinate with Paul Fernhout and other contributors on using the Termite production method he suggested on August 31, to engage people committed to solving big problems without immediate remuneration and guidance.
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  2. Explain three (3) ways the deliverable will improve email, and the estimated cost savings from using the improved capability.
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  3. Identify a specific huge need this improved email will address, and explain incremental improvement you expect people will gain in solving the need by adopting the advantages set out under para 2. For example, you and others have mentioned energy as something the DKR can help solve. How will this occur?

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On a more general level, the letter to Henry van Eykan (also, submitted to the team) on September 20, tried to focus on an issue you raised on February 27, of defining a customer. While the DKR project is not constrained entirely by market objectives, you observed on February 27 that project deliverables will compete for users, and so this deserves early attention.
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The threshold question in a full employment economy is...

who cares?

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If people are having fun going to meetings, traveling, and earning a living using familiar work methods, the question arises whether even a "huge need" is enough for people to work faster, smarter and cheaper, rather than easier, especially, if it requires front-end investment to learn a stronger work practice?
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On January 20 you cited the energy problem as an urgent need for better knowledge technology. True, the price of gas is nearing record highs, but there is not an actual shortage we experience in our lives. Since earnings are up, the extra cost does not seem to present the sense of urgency you cited on January 20. Later you observed that people need to experience success using new tools in order to discover the tools are actually better, leading to wider acceptance. Along the same vein on June 14 you reported that engineers often resist new tools. Like CEOs and all of us, they want to improve earnings by getting up earlier and working harder using what they already know, because that seems easier at the moment than spending several months learning to work smarter, in order to save several years solving the energy problem, improving
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medicine, auto mechanics, rocket science, and so on. As well, on April 20, there was a report that the Crit team did not use new tools they created, because it was easier to work in familiar ways.
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You have noted that new technologies must be learned in 20 minutes to an hour, otherwise people are unwilling to invest the time to discover how to save time and money. This practice was characterized as looking for easy diggings in a report on the Oakland Harbor project in 1997. We are all attracted by fools gold, because often real gold is initially not pretty, you have to clean it up, and it requires more than 20 minutes to find. Pilot testing sounds great, but 20 minutes to an hour isn't enough time to find the motherload for better productivity, earnings and stock prices.
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This leads to several Knowledge Management dilemmas...
  1. How can benefits of good management that are typically deferred for weeks, months, sometimes occurring even years later, be identified by customers in the 20 minutes to an hour people have available for pilot testing a next generation Knowledge Management technology? Andy Grove, like Doug Engelbart, recommends experimenting to improve; but, if the experiment only lasts 20 minutes, then the tools adopted will cause harm, like fools gold, as seen from email, cell phones, fax, Palm Pilots.
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  2. Need, even huge need which you cite, does not translate into market demand, if the need is otherwise being met in some manner with familiar processes. People are willing to accept problems, including reduced earnings, conflict and loss, in order to avoid the burden of learning something new. Drucker makes a similar point that new methods have to be 10 times better to change work practice. What Drucker does not mention is that nobody wants to go first to pilot test in order to separate fools gold from real gold. So, even if a method is 100 times better, Drucker's rule fails when there are plenty of sunshine profits. In that case, as now, people demand things that are pretty, easy and fun, regardless of the need. The only exception is overwhelming need, as in a war setting. If people are immediately threatened, we can all pull together and focus on improving productivity.

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Since we don't have a war setting, discussion of need, must, therefore, be accompanied by analysis of wants and desires in order to identify market demand. In particular we have to address Andy Grove's observation that we like to work on familiar things in familiar ways, regardless of need, as evidenced by Intel's recent woes. As long as sunshine profits are available to buy-off mistakes, it seems easier at the moment to spend a few billion dollars, squander good will, and so forth, than to spend a few months to improve the work so that mistakes are reduced. It's a dilemma.
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Here is another angle. Several studies have shown that technology reduces productivity of management and other knowledge work. Technology saves time and reduces cost when incorporated into mechanical production settings. Adding intelligence to product assembly, for example, reduces the impact of management bumbling; but, it increases bumbling when put in the hands of people designing and managing things, like assembly equipment, and IT products.
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The email problems you cite, and recent NASA difficulties with the Mars program illustrate how email reduces productivity and increases cost astronomically in knowledge work. This suggests that procedures people use to identify neat and cool technology, based on pilot testing for 20 minutes to an hour, are not effective for adding intelligence to management.
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Therefore, for the DKR to be effective it must solve the energy problem by improving manufacturing tasks. But, if we try to help people working on the problem, the evidence indicates all of us will refuse to be helped, and the technology we are willing to adopt based on 20 minutes to an hour of review, actually makes the problems worse.
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You have noted for example that adding intelligence to management boggles the mind, and people don't like that, regardless of how big the problem is that may need some initial boggling in order to maintain alignment with requirements.
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Suppose the government allocates $20B to solve the energy problem or to reduce the crisis of medical mistakes that make going to the hospital more risky than automobile and aviation accidents combined, according to a study last year. Will anyone call to get the CDS program to improve email? Most likely they will spend the $20B doing what they already know, like drill for oil, build a hospital, neither of which address underlying issues.
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In other words, discussion may have quieted on the DKR team in recent weeks because there has not been a showing of how your CDS program, that boggles the mind, (I know I am guilty of that too), will help people working on huge needs do a better job, and, further, that people will gain sufficient reward in 20 minutes to an hour to continue use, so that the big benefits of new knowledge can be realized days, weeks and years later, and thereon reinforce the original decision to use a new method, and endorse it for wider use. This is summed up as...
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Deferred rewards are a hard sell!

The challenge is made more clear by Henry's letter the other day worrying that adding intelligence to management takes too much diligence. While we can argue that technology reduces diligence needed to do the work, the question remains, if there is a huge need, why is diligence an issue? Ordinarily it is an asset in designing a bridge or a computer chip to have diligence.
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Recall your report on May 17 about benefits of diligence on a project in Texas some years ago. This is not an isolated case. On May 8 you noted better understanding resulted from diligence to analyse work on the DKR project; and on April 24 you expected that the DKR project could be expedited, if diligence had been exercised to capture daily working information on the earlier Augment project. Benefits of better understanding are not limited to high tech; they are ubiquitous. Everyone demands diligence, for example, to align the manufacture of tires and automobiles with requirements. When lack of alignment gains visibility, the refrain rings out across the land for diligence. Responding to protests that executives, managers and engineers don't have enough time for diligence, Congress suddenly takes time to pass emergency legilsation requiring diligence to maintain alignment, report lack of alignment. and restore alignment quickly, regardless of cost. Reporters and investigators research exhaustively to discover lack of diligence that caused alignment to fail. Fines are levied and increased, people are fired, possibly jailed, because lack of diligence is negligence. It is a fraud, and can be a crime because it causes loss of life, in addition to loss of treasure and time.
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Clearly, there seems to be strong demand for diligence to correct alignment.

However, the lack of concomitant demand for adding intelligence to the work in order to save lives, time and money presents an equally clear dilemma. How can technology be deployed that reduces the level of diligence, i.e., makes it faster and easier, to maintain alignment, so that calamity and crises are avoided, as reported to Henry on September 26?
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We can further argue that the biggest problem, overshadowing all others, is the expanding complexity that drives management toward entropy, threatening to implode into a morass of bumbling, due to success accomplishing the centuries old dream of getting more information. We are innovating ourselves into ignorance, making communication the biggest risk in enterprise, because human span of attention cannot maintain alignment under conditions of expanding complexity. We can argue and argue, but people are not moved to action because problems in the microcosm are beyond span of attention. Twenty minutes to an hour for learning how technology aligns daily work with requirements, and takes less diligence to do it, is not sufficient to arrest the magnitude of the threat caused by negligence; nor is it enough time to grasp the huge opportunity that awaits from gaining control over lower levels of organic structure in the microcosm of the human mind. It's a dilemma.
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Let's then look at the issue differently: not as how much diligence it takes, but how much
fun it is to add intelligence to management; saving time and money are just incidental extras.
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Like playing a piano, while the music is not audible, there is a strong mental satisfaction from quickly and easily connecting information into continuous arrangements that align daily work with objectives, requirements and commitments. There is added pleasure anticipating future benefits from being effective in meetings, calls and email, which is increased and reinforced as events occur throughout the day. Landauer says that effectance is a big motivator, so having fun and being effective might work, where talking about big needs and diligence seems to fall on deaf ears.
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As well, getting millions of people to have fun adding intelligence to daily work, will solve big problems and prevent small problems from becoming big, even if people do not pay attention to huge needs.

What do you say? Let's have fun!

Sincerely,

THE WELCH COMPANY



Rod Welch
rowelch@attglobal.net