THE WELCH COMPANY
440 Davis Court #1602
San Francisco, CA 94111-2496
415 781 5700


S U M M A R Y


DIARY: December 8, 1999 06:39 PM Wednesday; Rod Welch

Received letter from Morris on the impact of luck in management.

1...Summary/Objective
............Communication the biggest risk in enterprise
2...Communication Metrics Supports Intel Training for Executives

ACTION ITEMS.................. Click here to comment!

1...Decided to defer this letter on training for another letter.

CONTACTS 
0201 - Intel Corporation                    408 765 8080
020101 - Mr. Morris E. Jones; Business Unit Manager =408 545 9521
020102 - morris.jones@intel.com
020103 - Cable Network Operation

SUBJECTS
Commercial Partners for Phase II Funding
Technology Productivity Declined Past 10 Years
NSF Research Support
Luck Consistent Use Good Practices, SDS Authority Enhance Chances
Murphy's Law, Avoiding Mistakes
Bad Luck High Risk Causes Mistakes
Prepare for Meetings Notes Linked to Common History
Be Prepared SDS Provides 80% of Preparation Automatically
Communication Biggest Risk of Enterprise Paradigm Shift of Millennium
Communication Biggest Risk in Enterprise, Dilemma
Paradigm Shift of Millinneum Communication Biggest Risk in Enterprise
New World Order - Information Overload/Highway Implodes Enterprise Co
Murphy's Law Hidden Mistakes Discovered by Writing Improves Productiv

3115 -    ..
3116 - Summary/Objective
3117 -
311701 - Follow up ref SDS 57 0000, ref SDS 53 0000.
311702 -
311703 - Received ref DRT 1 0001 from Morris responding to my letter yesterday,
311704 - ref DIP 9 0001, transmitting the letter to Kaiser, ref DIP 8 0001,
311705 - that explains the Presidential announcement of a national initiative
311706 - to cut medical mistakes. ref SDS 56 0001
311707 -
311708 - Morris says in total...
311709 -
311710 -    Yes, there are problems in the world.  Many are caused by people
311711 -    and communications problems.  Many are caused by risk taking, and
311712 -    some are caused by random chance (Luck).
311713 -
311714 - This is the "Murphy's Law" theory of management, explained in the New
311715 - World Order... ref OF 3 9449
311716 -
311717 -    Was NASA's failure on Mars that cost $125M, because they didn't
311718 -    check the contract to get the correct units of measure, "bad luck,"
311719 -    reviewed on 991001? ref SDS 40 0001
311720 -
311721 -    Was the woman who had the wrong leg amputated unlucky, given that
311722 -    the sugeon did an outstanding job removing the wrong leg.
311723 -
311724 -    Was the failure to report defective O Rings on the Columbia Space
311725 -    Shuttle mission that blew up, bad luck? reported on 921021.
311726 -    ref SDS 5 4499
311727 -
311728 -    Was the failure of Morris and colleagues at Intel to recognize the
311729 -    proposal to NSF is aimed at solving information overload as
311730 -    explained in the first paragraph, bad luck? reported on 990713.
311731 -    ref SDS 29 9900
311732 -
311733 - Attributing mistakes to random luck is not a constructive response to
311734 - new realities of information overload where the paradigm shift of the
311735 - millennium makes....
311736 -
311737 -
311738 -            Communication the biggest risk in enterprise
311739 -
311740 -
311741 - ...set out in POIMS, ref OF 2 VX7N, and in my letter, explaining there
311742 - is a proactive method to reduce this risk called Communication
311743 - Metrics. ref DIP 9 0621  This idea was first submitted to Dave Vannier
311744 - at Intel on 991007. ref SDS 41 7920
311745 -
311746 - Willfully blind is a problem cited by Grove in his book explaining
311747 - that successful managers have difficulty admitting the magnitude of
311748 - the problems they face, reviewed on 980307. ref SDS 19 2044
311749 -
311750 - On 951010 Bill Walsh explained being prepared narrows the range of bad
311751 - luck and widens opportunity for good luck to occur. ref SDS 10 9558
311752 -
311753 - On 950327 Com Metrics facilitates being prepared. ref SDS 8 8822
311754 - ..
311755 - Submitted ref DIT 1 0001 to Morris explaining that the goal of
311756 - proactive risk management supported by Com Metrics is to reduce the
311757 - influence of random luck on events.  One way is to use SDS to be
311758 - prepared, discussed previously on 990816, ref SDS 34 2146, and in my
311759 - letter. ref DIP 1 9675
311760 -
311761 - Linked to letter on 990924, ref DIP 2 0001, that explains the cause of
311762 - medical mistakes. ref SDS 38 0001
311763 -
311764 - Cite meaning drift explained on 991101. ref SDS 54 2800
311765 -
311766 - Cite Morris' letter, ref DIT 1 2793, on 990817, ref DRP 1 6781,
311767 - advises that SDS improves human memory. ref SDS 35 1320
311768 -
311769 - Explain poetry improves memory, ref DIT 1 2793, from the record on
311770 - 991108. ref SDS 55 3596   Alphabet technology improves poetry.
311771 - ref SDS 55 5628, and SDS improves the alphabet, per NSF proposal.
311772 - ref OF 4 3417
311773 -
311774 -     [On 991209 information that Plato's Phaedrus exposes dominate view
311775 -     of literacy and writing. ref SDS 58 3416]
311776 -
311777 - Explain needed for leadrship with a broader vision. ref OF 3 5654
311778 -
311779 - Cited Morris' bow and arrow diagram on 950303. ref SDS 7 3497
311780 -
311781 - Cited Fortune article on 990625, ref DIT 1 4725, reporting that
311782 - writing meeting notes boost the chances of good luck. ref SDS 28 1024
311783 -
311784 - Cited Grove's practice of writing copious notes to remove ambiguity of
311785 - mental maps. ref SDS 20 3668
311786 -
311787 -
311788 -
311789 -
311790 -
3118 -

SUBJECTS
Training and Policy Support

3204 -
320401 -  ..
320402 - Communication Metrics Supports Intel Training for Executives
320403 -
320404 - Follow up ref SDS 57 5346, ref SDS 53 5346.
320405 -
320406 - Decided to defer this letter on training for another letter.
320407 -
320408 -
320409 -
320410 -
320411 -
320412 -
320413 -
3205 -
Distribution. . . . See "CONTACTS"