THE WELCH COMPANY
440 Davis Court #1602
San Francisco, CA 94111-2496
415 781 5700
S U M M A R Y
DIARY: February 9, 1992 06:02 PM Sunday;
Called Mike re comments on NWO and POIMS article.
....Human Memory Key to Reasoning and Learning
....Records Management is Helpful
....Defects in Present Practice
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Marketing; SDS Thoery, Human Memory
Diary record to increase understanding
Learning period/difficulty; Subject Index
Getting the same work done in less time (Morris & Mike Welch)
Too busy to manage effectively
Remembering (linked records), Writing "everything" down
Alphabet is not Intuitive, but is Powerful
Time, Not Enough for Understanding, to
Murphy's Law, Avoiding Mistakes, Drifting Off Course
Truth is a Moving Target on Information
Fragility of Knowledge, Fades
Discipline, Redundant, Lazy, Lack
2614 - ..
2615 - Summary/Objective
261601 - Follow up ref SDS 3 0001.
261603 - Continued discussion on NWO in relation to augmenting human
261604 - intelligence. ref OF 2 0001
261606 - ..
261607 - Mike feels more attention is needed in the POIMS article on explaining
261608 - how people develop skills and discipline to apply automated tools in
261609 - SDS in order to achieve the objectives of POIMS.
261614 - ..
2619 - Discusison
262001 - We considered further the analogy of learning the alphabet to assemble
262002 - words, and words to assemble coherent ideas, and using SDS to extend
262003 - this process beyond what wordprocessing provides, as set out in POIMS.
262004 - ref OF 1 1299
262006 - ..
262007 - Mike raised his prior concern about the time required to create the
262008 - record, and cited a new concern about teaching the skill and
262009 - discipline.
262011 - [On 000716 Professor Ransdell advised that Com Metrics is
262012 - ambitious since others have faileded to formulate a coherent
262013 - theory of knowledge since the 17th century. ref SDS 10 7838
262015 - ..
262016 - I indicated it requires no more skill and discipline than is presently
262017 - required by the current curriculum. What is added that requires
262018 - virtually no new skill, save for pressing a button, is the ability to
262019 - instantly look up accurate chronologies of prior related events and
262020 - documents on particular subjects. This brings context instantly to
262021 - mind that may have been forgotten or, recalled incorrectly.
262023 - [On 010911 effort to learn new skills for working intelligently
262024 - must be balanced against effort to recover from failed
262025 - intelligence. ref SDS 11 YNGH
262027 - ..
262028 - [On 020204 economy failing because too many people having too
262029 - many problems using tools and methods everybody likes;
262030 - encourages some people to invest time for working smarter.
262031 - ref SDS 12 0001
262034 - ..
262035 - Human Memory Key to Reasoning and Learning
262037 - Com Metrics presents a theory of human memory that aids reasoning
262038 - and learning. Since the mind retains fragments of events and ideas
262039 - based on chronology and subject, and pulls them together on the
262040 - basis of a best fit correlation with topics of current interest,
262041 - then the chance of error in remembering increases with time because
262042 - of the chance for interceeding events to contain similar fact
262043 - patterns, i.e. we get "mixed up."
262045 - ..
262046 - On 900319 research shows better memeory enabled by SDS technology
262047 - strengthens human reasoning. ref SDS 1 0005
262049 - ..
262050 - Typically, people recall accurately and inaccurately at different
262051 - times depending upon the circumstances at the moment and near term
262052 - preceding events. Events that are emotionally charged have a
262053 - greater potential to intercede in the process of recollection, as
262054 - time passes. Sometimes we recognize "confusion," and can proceed
262055 - cautiously to verify understandings. This is when the current
262056 - system of recording information in memos and letters is effective.
262059 - ..
262060 - Records Management is Helpful
262062 - Traditional records "management" using filing cabinets, folders,
262063 - desk drawers and anything else that is handy has evolved for
262064 - thousands of years to help people organize, store and find
262065 - information to support decisions on taking action or deferring if a
262066 - conflict arises with objectives, requirements or commitments. Up
262067 - until fairly recently, when important issues were disucssed, a
262068 - secretary might be called in to take notes, so everyone could
262069 - refresh their memory later upon taking subsequent action. Along
262070 - about the 1970s, this practice faded from the scene, some say
262071 - because deep pocket litigation soured everyone on keeping records
262072 - that are subject to discovery. Movie goers though remember scenes
262073 - from productions in the 1940s and 50s where taking down an accurate
262074 - record was a sign of good management. Scenes from the Maltese
262075 - Falcon and the Philadelphia Story show the common place role of
262076 - capturing organizational memory. When we can look up what actually
262077 - occurred there is confidence that action is well founded. When
262078 - there is no record, the chances of failure escalate quickly because
262079 - people remember the gist of information well, about 5% - 10%, but
262080 - not the critical details in the other 90% - 95% of the story, and
262081 - this compounds error over time, as noted by Aristotle in 400 BC.
262084 - ..
262085 - Defects in Present Practice
262087 - Today, even when needed information has been written, often it may
262088 - not get "filed" or it may be miss-filed or it may not have been
262089 - adequately cross-filed. The result is we rely on our wits to guess
262090 - what occurred. Sometimes we check with others to get their
262091 - recollections. They may not be available, may not remember or may
262092 - remember the events so differently from us that their perspective
262093 - is dismissed. But then we are at least alerted to proceed
262094 - cautiously.
262096 - ..
262097 - Remembering Incorrectly
262099 - The larger problem is when, as often occurs, we do not recognize
262100 - that we have remembered incorrectly. We in fact strongly believe
262101 - we have remembered correctly, because the story our mind assembles
262102 - seems consistent and so has the ring of reality. In this case we
262103 - proceed very confidently down the wrong path. Indeed, most of the
262104 - time when the story our mind constructs seems adequate, we do not
262105 - invest the time to check our premises (i.e. the facts) because we
262106 - know there is a good chance that the prior related event was not
262107 - recorded, or if it was, it has not been filed, or has been filed
262108 - incorrectly, and therefore will require a significant amount of
262109 - time to investigate. We make an instant judgement weighing all of
262110 - these possibilities and choose the path of least resistance, what
262111 - we believe strongly at the moment.
262113 - ..
262114 - Through such calculus, we make another mistake.
262117 - ..
262118 - Learning Process
262120 - POIMS explaines that having a means to quickly capture and analyse
262121 - current events and thereafter to quickly reseach prior events and
262122 - analysis, i.e. original thinking, significantly improves human
262123 - potential in several respects:
262125 - [On 950721 research in project management describes original
262126 - understanding and intent as a process of "traceability to
262127 - original sources" that supports "continual learning,"
262128 - ref SDS 8 1740
262130 - 1. Value of writing the record.
262132 - ..
262133 - 2. Writing discloses gaps in the record that are otherwise
262134 - overlooked by falling outside span of attention.
262136 - ..
262137 - 3. When we do not recognize confusion, it is cost effective to
262138 - verify understandings to avoid mistakes. since the record can
262139 - be checked quickly.
262141 - ..
262142 - 4. Subject management shows related things to consider and plan
262143 - for contingencies that are otherwise forgotten, until error
262144 - occurs.
262146 - [On 971008 USACE reported a study showing ROI using SDS to
262147 - avoid the cost of rework to correct mistakes is 10:1.
262148 - ref SDS 9 2979