THE WELCH COMPANY
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S U M M A R Y


DIARY: May 9, 2001 12:18 PM Wednesday; Rod Welch

Productivity declines for first time in 6 years, labor costs soar.

1...Summary/Objective
2...Downsizing Cut Nearly .25M Jobs Last Month, April
3...Rising Inventories Point to Softening Economy
4...Connecting the Dots...... Demand for Knowledge Management


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CONTACTS 

SUBJECTS
Stock Prices Decline Due to Reduced Earnings
Recession Reduced Earnings Stock Prices Decimated
Bumbling Email Constant Mistakes
Too Many People Having Too Many Problems, 001221
Connecting Dots Technology to Improve Management More Useful than Imp
Sales Results Do Measure Potential Nor Improvement Provided by SDS
Maintain Build Shared Meaning Duty of Leadership Requires Common Stor
Do Something Even if Wrong Relieve Frustration Inactivity Feel Good
Competence Too Many People Having Too Many Problems Competence Needs
Productivity Declines Labor Costs Rise Highest Since 1997 Fears of In
Inflation Fear Highest Increase Labor Costs Since 1997 Reduces Produc
Fed Expected to Lower Interest Rates to Avoid Recession Which Increas
Productivity Needed Avoid Inflation as Fed Increases Money Supply Low
Standard of Living Depends on Rising Productivity
Downsizing 250K Jobs Lost Last Month Raises Fear of Recession
Inventories Wholesalers Rise Points to Softening Economy Fear of Rece

4118 -    ..
4119 - Summary/Objective
4120 -
412001 - Follow up ref SDS 8 0000, ref SDS 7 0000.
412002 -
412003 - Two articles report productivity has declined for the 1st time in 6
412004 - years, ref OF 7 0001 because labor costs soared to 5.2%, the biggest
412005 - rise since 1997, ref OF 7 HM7J, and causing alarm about inflation.
412006 - ref OF 7 00BT
412007 -
412008 -     "We have been too complacent about inflation. It has been placed
412009 -     on the back burner for too long and now it is shouting at us,
412010 -     demanding attention," said Sung Won Sohn, chief economist at Wells
412011 -     Fargo Bank in Minneapolis. ref OF 7 01HZ
412012 -
412013 - Most economists still expect the Fed to continue cutting interest
412014 - rates aggressively despite inflation worries. ref OF 7 004P and
412015 - ref OF 7 01EO and further at ref OF 7 OE6J
412016 -
412017 -     On 010427 Dale Ames advised money supply has been increased beyond
412018 -     traditional standards that track productivity, in an effort to
412019 -     stimulate the economy, along with reducing interest rates.
412020 -     ref SDS 14 VM6J
412021 -
412022 - Vice President Dick Cheny reports economy is in danger of recession.
412023 - ref OF 7 N48H
412024 -
412025 - Productivity, measuring the amount of goods and services workers
412026 - produce per hour, is crucial to rising standards of living and has
412027 - been credited as a vital part of the long- lasting U.S. expansion.
412028 - ref OF 7 006R
412029 -
412030 -     When worker productivity grows, companies can produce more while
412031 -     holding down costs. Productivity last fell in the first quarter of
412032 -     1995 when it shrank at a 0.8 percent annual pace. ref OF 7 00FT
412033 -
412034 - The central bank has slashed short-term interest rates by two full
412035 - percentage points since the start of the year to try and reignite
412036 - slowing U.S. growth.  The Fed had been widely expected to cut interest
412037 - rates by another half-point at its May 15 meeting and that expectation
412038 - appeared to be little changed by the latest data. ref OF 7 00DT
412039 -
412040 -
412041 -  ..
412042 - Downsizing Cut Nearly .25M Jobs Last Month, April
412043 -
412044 - Fears of recession were heightened last week when the government
412045 - reported that almost a quarter of a million jobs were lost in April --
412046 - the largest payroll decline since a decade ago when the United States
412047 - was in recession. ref OF 7 MG7G
412048 -
412049 -
412050 -  ..
412051 - Rising Inventories Point to Softening Economy
412052 -
412053 - Inventories at wholesalers rose slightly in March, up 0.1 percent
412054 - after a 0.2 percent decline in the previous month -- another sign of
412055 - economic softness. ref OF 7 01DY
412056 -
412057 -
412058 -
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SUBJECTS
Connecting Dots Utopia Solves Too Many Problems Falling Productivity,
Connecting Dots Technology to Improve Management Productivity Earning

4505 -
450501 -  ..
450502 - Connecting the Dots...... Demand for Knowledge Management
450503 -
450504 - Follow up ref SDS 8 MZ7G, ref SDS 7 MZ7G.
450505 -
450506 - This record supports analysis on 001207 and later on 001221 showing
450507 - that technology must improve cognitive competence, reviewed on 001114,
450508 - ref SDS 3 SU3L, by lifting the capacity to think, remember and
450509 - communicate, set out in POIMS, ref OF 1 3742, because competence
450510 - capturing and using organizational memory, reviewed on 010420,
450511 - ref SDS 12 IE4M, improves productivity and earnings.  The Typical Day
450512 - Scenario explains SDS strengthens innate human cognitive capacities,
450513 - ref OF 2 YM5N, turning a world of continual problems and bumbling,
450514 - reported today, ref SDS 0 0001, and on 001207, ref SDS 7 V54M, where
450515 - people are overwhelmed by information overload, into a "utopia" of
450516 - productivity, earnings and stock prices, cited by Morris on 010425.
450517 - ref SDS 13 EP7F
450518 -
450519 - As this causal relationship becomes widely recognized, through a
450520 - combination of failure and fear that accompanies falling stock prices,
450521 - and awareness of the SDS record on the Internet, exemplified by the
450522 - record on 010428, ref SDS 15 0001, the demand for moving from
450523 - information to a culture of knowledge, proposed on 001011 in a letter
450524 - to SRI, ref SDS 2 0001, will grow strong enough to overcome
450525 - ignorance, fear and denial that enables transition from IT to KM, just
450526 - as the culture transitioned from orality to literacy in prior times.
450527 - see 991108. ref SDS 1 5628
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