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1...Need examples of imminent dangers that threaten world survival,
0201 - Armstrong Consulting 650 845 1782
020101 - Mr. Eric Armstrong
020102 - firstname.lastname@example.org
Values Vary in Emphasis According to Genetics Experience
Genetics Experience Impact Emphasis on Values
Technology Advance Cannot be Held Hostage to Resolving All Human Depr
Summary Aids Understanding Supports Intelligence
Intelligence Requires Linking Summary to Relevant Details and Alignment to Orginal So
Autonomy Respect for Individual Choices Respects Differences
KM Helps Solve World Problems
Values Purpose Important for DKR Team
Children Need Help Especially, Paul Fernhout
Children Especially Need Help Social Problems World Needs Not Solved
Social Problems More Important than Improving Technology
1813 - ..
1814 - Summary/Objective
181501 - Follow up ref SDS 90 0000, ref SDS 89 0000.
181503 - Paul Fernhout submits a letter summarizing information. ref SDS 0 2304
181504 - Eric Armstrong supports Paul's efforts adding structure, and Eric
181505 - reports work on technology to organize information so understanding is
181506 - enhanced. Summary and organization are part of "intelligence" that KM
181507 - uses to improve traditional IT methods, ref SDS 0 WV4J, which Eugene
181508 - Kim recommended as an alternate to using SDS. These efforts support
181509 - Doug's call for enhancing competence in solving complex problems. Paul
181510 - continues urging today that social problems of hunger, poverty and a
181511 - growing population living in harmony with a finite environment, do not
181512 - require KM capabilities that enhance competency. ref SDS 0 H84I He
181513 - says this is especially so for children, and for adults who live in a
181514 - culture that provides limited skills and opportunities. ref SDS 0 0124
181515 - Gary Johnson and Eric support development of KM as a critical means to
181516 - solve complex social problems. ref SDS 0 L76K Paul agrees with John's
181517 - view about respecting autonomy, and goes on to argue that community
181518 - support, commonly called "welfare," for people who are unable to earn
181519 - a living, is an investment that yields bigger rewards for all by
181520 - enabling capable people to become major contributors. ref SDS 0 X16G
181521 - History shows community has a stronger chance of survival where people
181522 - are encouraged to contribute by balancing support and accountability.
181523 - ref SDS 0 KQ4H The disagreement could be characterized as whether to
181524 - (a) stop work on the DKR, and other technology, which is feared as
181525 - threatening overwhelming complexity, ref SDS 0 IM5F, and direct all
181526 - energies toward meeting unmet needs until all are met; or, (b) to
181527 - procede in parallel under present practice, where some people work on
181528 - meeting unmet needs, while others strive to enhance competency, as
181529 - Paul demonstrates this morning, ref SDS 0 2304, so that unmet needs
181530 - are easier to meet. Gary worries progress is too slow on creating KM
181531 - because there is not enough competence to learn KM using IT methods,
181532 - particularly while investing time to assess values. Adding resources,
181533 - management and a means to learn KM by doing KM may expedite progress.
181534 - ref SDS 0 0159
181539 - ..
1818 - Progress
181901 - ..
181902 - Intelligence Requires Summary and Alignment
181903 - Values Constant Struggle between Process and Prescription
181904 - Equal Opportunity and Equal Results Dilemma of Values
181906 - Follow up ref SDS 90 2304.
181908 - Received ref DRT 1 0001 from Paul responding to a letter from John
181909 - Werneken, ref DRP 6 0001, received yesterday. ref SDS 90 L44F
181911 - This supplements Paul's response yesterday to Gary Johnson's letter.
181912 - ref SDS 90 R28H
181914 - Paul summarizes his understanding of John's points to organize his
181915 - response, ref DRT 1 X15I, then summarizes his own views from the past
181916 - few days. ref SDS 0 H84I This aligns with Eugene Kim's suggestion on
181917 - 001126 to increase team competence by learning KM using traditional IT
181918 - methods, rather than use SDS. ref SDS 86 T63N Summary is part of
181919 - "intelligence" that aids understanding complex problems. Summary is
181920 - more useful when connected to relevant details. see POIMS. ref OF 1
181921 - 8316 Paul does not link summary to details; nor are details linked to
181922 - orgininal sources for alignment, and to facilitate research, contrary
181923 - to Doug's call on 001025 for linking to original sources, ref SDS 67
181924 - 00VU, and supported by Eugene on 001126. ref SDS 86 XV8L Therefore,
181925 - links were added for future use of the record.
181926 - ..
181927 - Eric Armstrong reports discussion at the SRI event honoring Doug
181928 - Engelbart, ref SDS 91 6E6O, about recent analysis concerning the role
181929 - of values in guiding the direction of the DKR team, ref DRT 3 0001,
181930 - which Paul began on 001219. ref SDS 89 0001 continued yesterday.
181931 - ref SDS 90 0001
181932 - ..
181933 - Eric also notes in a second letter today that he has worked on
181934 - creating technology for constructing, sharing, and comparing models.
181935 - He feels a DKR system could helps organize a conversation like this
181936 - one, keep track of the threads, and identify which arguments have been
181937 - countered, which haven't, and perhaps even provide some rudimentary
181938 - rating of the arguments in agree/disagree form. ref DRT 4 KR6L
181940 - Organization, tracking subjects and identifying status is complex
181941 - because communication is complex, see discussion on 001219.
181942 - ref SDS 89 DN4N On 000125 Eric worried that a complex record
181943 - would "boggle the mind," ref SDS 27 3975, and on 000824 Eric
181944 - reported that a record connected to past archives is not helpful.
181945 - ref SDS 54 7O9I
181947 - The history of the DKR project indicates that accomplishing the KM
181948 - features Erick has in mind, causes people to withdraw, ignore and
181949 - grow silent, because KM is hard work to respond constructively to
181950 - a record like this, as reported on 000307. ref SDS 33 5182
181952 - ..
181953 - Paul does not respond to the power of the microcosm that divides
181954 - nature into binary forces, described in ref DIP 2 0001 to DKR team
181955 - submitted yesterday, on 001220, ref SDS 90 2304, and answering Paul's
181956 - second letter, ref DRP 2 0001, received on 001219. ref SDS 89 0764
181961 - ..
181962 - Social Contract Balances Accountability and Charity
181963 - Autonomy Core Value of Humanity Arising from Genetic Variability
181964 - Genetic Variability Creates Different Emphasis on Values
181966 - Follow up ref SDS 90 005J.
181968 - Paul cites John's letter yesterday saying...
181969 - ..
181970 - I suggest that if we are affirming values (widely shared or
181971 - otherwise) we ought to affirm Respect for Human Autonomy. The idea
181972 - that one individual may better determine that individual's needs,
181973 - wants, and means than another. The idea that one may be mistaken,
181974 - especially about other people. ref DRP 6 FR6I
181975 - ..
181976 - Paul summarizes his understanding that John believes an
181977 - important core value is "Respect for Human Autonomy", ref DRT 1 X16G,
181978 - which aligns with analysis yesterday. ref SDS 90 L44F
181980 - Paul agrees.
181982 - Paul cites phases in a person's life when assistance is needed to grow
181983 - into a member of a particular society, or to survive in that society
181984 - despite calamity. One value to society of helping the downtrodden is
181985 - in part that it creates a better social dynamic for everyone (i.e.
181986 - people don't live in fear of poverty, and thus are not driven to
181987 - certain extreme behaviors such as financial obesity.)
181989 - Paul's view may take some comfort from analysis by professor Joe
181990 - Ransdell on 000724, suggesting support for trial and error that
181991 - makes the overall system efficient, necessarily must accept and
181992 - support some inefficiency of particular elements, as an investment
181993 - to secure future contributions. ref SDS 51 HD4H This is a
181994 - derivitive of the idea that deferred rewards are compounded under
181995 - the rule that the long way around is the short way there, per
181996 - below. ref SDS 0 L76K
181998 - The community of course makes a considerable front-end investment
181999 - to educate the young toward becoming productive contributors, 15 -
182000 - 20 years later. Thus, the issue is not whether to provide social
182001 - support, but how to balance a range of competing values.
182003 - [..see also below. ref SDS 0 KA8G
182004 - ..
182005 - A vibrant market is the best engine for deploying people
182006 - with marginal skills and varying needs across a wide spectrum of
182007 - tasks, so that everyone can discover a productive role, and has a
182008 - chance to be discovered. Chance necessarily implies that some
182009 - people with tremendous skills and energy will not be successful,
182010 - and others with minimal skills, and poor practices will still
182011 - succeed. In a free economy, there is no guarentee that favorable
182012 - results will be achieved; but, generally, those with the most
182013 - skill, energy and integrity, will rise, and thereby improve the
182014 - whole community.
182015 - ..
182016 - Therefore, to encourage acquisition of skill, the exercise
182017 - of energy and integrity, essential for contributing, rather than
182018 - draining, the community, accountability is an essential metric
182019 - that guides human behavior toward activity that grows the means of
182020 - sustaining the community. A key dilemma is striking a balance
182021 - between accountability that encourages sound management that makes
182022 - productive use of resources, and relieving people of
182023 - responsibility for failed choices, or simply encountering forces
182024 - larger than themselves, which act equally for good or ill.
182026 - As noted on 001219, there can be no joy without failure.
182027 - ref SDS 89 UB7I Every opportunity cannot end in success, and
182028 - every success does not extend forever; although, both success and
182029 - failure can extend throughout a lifetime, which gives the
182030 - appearance of divorcing talent and sound management from results.
182031 - Eventually, good management has the best chance of giving the most
182032 - people the greatest opporunity to succeed, which Paul notes in his
182033 - letter today, quoting John. ref DRT 1 X29O Longer term cycles
182034 - appear to relieve people of responsibility to apply good
182035 - management, but that is only an appearance. If we allow ourselves
182036 - to become permanently fooled, we all risk sinking into the abyss.
182038 - Financial "obesity" is a risk that is moderated by markets that
182039 - demand continued good management, as many are discovering anew,
182040 - see report on 001221. ref SDS 92 0001 People who accumulate
182041 - wealth are forced to invest in new plant, new equipment, new
182042 - methods that bring new and higher paying jobs in order to remain
182043 - competitive, see review on 990527. ref SDS 16 0738 Unallocated
182044 - wealth is invested in banks, where it is loaned to others, who
182045 - demonstrate the ability to grow investment into more wealth, which
182046 - is the environment of greatest opportunity.
182048 - ..
182049 - Paul says the value of helping the downtrodden is especially
182050 - true for children, naturally. However, it may still be true for
182051 - adults who have grown up in different cultures who did not gain the
182052 - requirements (ideas, skills, capital, outlook) to participate in the
182053 - society under discussion. (This is to not say individuals from
182054 - disadvantaged backgrounds may not bring other valuable things with
182055 - them from their heritage.), ref DRT 1 0124
182057 - On 001219 Paul cited Senator Monyhan's concern for children.
182058 - ref SDS 89 01YQ
182060 - We need to distinguish the desire to create opportunity from forcing
182061 - people to act on the opportunity. I would not interpret "Respect for
182062 - Human Autonomy" to mean let the "weak" (however that is currently
182063 - defined) die from neglect. And that's what we are talking about to an
182064 - extent with 840 million malnourished people. ref DRT 1 H65F
182066 - Relieving global starvation is an international accountability and
182067 - responsibility issue, per above, ref SDS 0 V3DF, discussed, also,
182068 - 001219. ref SDS 89 1328
182070 - On 001219 Paul was asked what actions he proposes. ref SDS 89 U14J
182071 - Paul proposed "value affirmation," ref SDS 89 KZ4K, but no
182072 - specific action to implement affirmed values. Analysis on 001219
182073 - showed the DKR team has limited options for alleviating hunger.
182074 - ref SDS 89 HU7M
182075 - ..
182076 - The people trying to take away autonomy (IMHO) are more likely
182077 - those Congress people passing stuff like:
182079 - http://cryptome.org/hr46.htm
182081 - http://slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=00/12/20/1620204&mode=thread&threshold=2
182082 - ..
182083 - ...where bill HR46 may allow the seizure of your computer if it
182084 - is suspect of being "used in ... intellectual property theft" before
182085 - you are convicted or even charged (maybe someday with IP theft
182086 - interpreted as websurfing past a web site with an unauthorized use of
182087 - a Disney character perhaps?), ref DRT 1 0148
182090 - ..
182091 - Paul summarizes objectives at the end of his letter, saying....
182093 - 1. Technological (as opposed to social or political) progress,
182094 - while desirable for many reasons, is not required to solve
182095 - basic human problems. ref DRT 1 045W
182097 - On 001219 Paul argued many social problems can be solved
182098 - with current technology, and unmet social needs should be
182099 - addressed by the DKR team without further work on creating
182100 - KM. ref SDS 89 I74O
182102 - On 001219 analysis shows KM is a new technology that is not
182103 - yet in wide use, and that it may enable meeting unmet human
182104 - problems in greater measure than present practice.
182105 - ref SDS 89 HU7M
182106 - ..
182107 - Gary Johnson responds, arguing that some social
182108 - problems are complex, and therefore, KM may aid solution,
182109 - ref DRT 2 0064, reflecting analysis on 001219. ref SDS 89
182110 - 658G and ref SDS 89 4E5M Gary made a similar point on
182111 - 001220. ref SDS 90 DW6J
182113 - [...see also below. ref SDS 0 L76K
182114 - ..
182115 - 2. The exponential growth of technology is both a threat and
182116 - a blessing, and at this point is a given, and like fire we need
182117 - to do what we can with it for good ends (however we define
182118 - those, where we may not agree). ref DRT 1 V57I
182120 - [...below, Paul seems to moderate this view, indicating
182121 - growth eventually changes to an S curve. ref SDS 0 X36J
182123 - Threats and blessings are inherent dilemmas of existence in
182124 - striking the balance between binary forces, cited on 001220.
182125 - ref SDS 90 2304
182127 - Re-state's position on 001219, ref SDS 89 T66K and
182128 - ref SDS 89 6Q5N
182130 - Paul has not submitted evidence showing exponential or any
182131 - growth in KM, as a means to apply general growth in
182132 - technology more usefully, per analysis on 001219.
182133 - ref SDS 89 0485 and ref SDS 89 Y67O
182135 - On 001220 Paul seemed to agree with Gary Johnson that people
182136 - are overwhelmed by IT, indicating KM is not making any
182137 - progress. ref SDS 90 FL9G
182138 - ..
182139 - Gary Johnson in a reply, agrees with Paul that growth
182140 - of technology is a threat and a blessing, i.e., a binary
182141 - force. He proposes dividing forces, where some people work
182142 - on developing KM, and others work on social problems.
182143 - ref DRT 2 0199
182145 - [...below, this idea seems to follow from conflicting
182146 - perspectives on Paul's point 1. ref SDS 0 KA8G
182147 - ..
182148 - 3. To an extent the exponential growth of technology may
182149 - help meet human needs of the disenfranchised through reduced
182150 - costs it may seem desirable, but it is not required to do so.
182151 - This means people driving technological innovation, including
182152 - the Bootstrap Institute, should be clearer about what it is
182153 - they are trying to accomplish. Is it simply to escalate the
182154 - infotech arms race, is it to make charity more effective, is it
182155 - in some belief in "progress", or is it for other reasons?
182156 - ref DRT 1 04TV
182158 - Doug Engelbart clearly says his objective is to increase
182159 - competency for handling complex problems. see report on
182160 - 001114. ref SDS 75 SU3L This aligns with the mission of the
182161 - Bootstrap Institute, reviewed on 991222. ref SDS 23 3744
182163 - Communication Metrics calls on POIMS technology to lift the
182164 - capacity to think, remember and communicate, and thereby
182165 - lift civilization to the next platau, beyond the limits of
182166 - IT driven by past technologies using the alphabet and
182167 - printing press, including its modern cousin wordprocessing.
182168 - ref OF 1 5418
182169 - ..
182170 - Gary Johnson in a reply says people can avoid tools
182171 - that do not aid uses they believe are socially worthy.
182172 - ref DRT 2 0259 He notes it is hard to create tools that can
182173 - only be used for good purposes, and so cannot be used for
182174 - socially unworthy purposes. ref DRT 2 0296 He feels this is
182175 - a futile inquiry, which aligns with his comments on 001219.
182176 - ref SDS 89 6A9N
182178 - Eric Armstrong makes a similar point in a letter, also,
182179 - received today. ref DRT 3 G97J
182182 - [...below, this idea seems to follow from conflicting
182183 - perspectives on Paul's point 1. ref SDS 0 KA8G
182185 - This appears to align with analysis on 001219. ref SDS 89
182186 - I49J
182188 - Eric proposes that people can make a determination to
182189 - support tools that have a greater chance of being used for
182190 - socially worthy causes. ref DRT 3 588F
Technology Compounds Complexity Can Never Solve Problem IT is Creatin
Technology Salvation of Humanity, Not Compounding Complexity
Business as Usual Must Chane to Avoid World-wide Calamity
Survival Requires Changing Business as Usual
220701 - ..
220702 - Survival Requires Changing Business as Usual
220703 - Technology Empowers People to Sovle Complex Problems
220705 - Follow up ref SDS 90 N3D2, ref SDS 89 9I6K.
220707 - Paul cites John's letter yesterday saying...
220709 - I haven't seen any exponential growth yet. The Lilly in the pond
220710 - taking 39 days to cover half the pond, and one day to cover the
220711 - rest, like Moore's law, may look exponential in the short run - in
220712 - this case, over 40 days. But the limits still exist. ref DRP 6 009M
220713 - ..
220714 - Paul summarizes his understanding that John believes all systems
220715 - have limits, even those growing exponentially. There is not a pressing
220716 - need to deal with any threats from exponential growth.
220718 - Paul agrees that systems have limits, and typically exponential growth
220719 - becomes an S-curve at some point. ref DRT 1 X36J
220721 - This appears to moderate Malthusian predictions on 001219.
220722 - ref SDS 89 9I6K
220724 - [...Paul summarizes his view at the end of his letter to John,
220725 - re-stating concern about out of control growth of technology.
220726 - ref SDS 0 IM5F
220727 - ..
220728 - Paul cites some disagreement though. He is concerned there may
220729 - not be enough clear water in the machine-intelligence Lily pond over
220730 - the next few decades for survival. He feels strongly that this should
220731 - be a major focus of serious attention, rather than advocating business
220732 - as usual up until day 39. ref DRT 1 4W7N
220734 - Need examples of imminent dangers that threaten world survival,
220735 - which warrant immediate action, and the prescriptions for meeting
220736 - these perils that are not now being attended.
220738 - NWO... warns information overload is a threat of imploding
220739 - management in a morass of bumbling. ref OF 2 7501
220741 - Doug Engelbart seeks to enhance competence for solving complex
220742 - problems, as reported on 001114.
220744 - Changing "businesss as usual" requires taking different actions,
220745 - reviewed on 001219. ref SDS 89 HU7M On 001219 Paul was asked what
220746 - action he proposes. ref SDS 89 U14J
220748 - Government is the principle mechanism for taking community action
220749 - to ensure survival.
220751 - What political figure is advocating steps Paul believes are
220752 - needed, and what are the steps, as reviewed on 001219.
220753 - ref SDS 90 YH5N
220755 - Attention may be warranted on potential calamity of a huge
220756 - population experiencing escalating demands of a rising life style,
220757 - that will exponential deplete resources, per Eric's first letter
220758 - today, ref DRT 3 YJ8K, and discussion on 001219. ref SDS 89 MK3A
KM Helps Solve World Problems
Complex Problems Not Solved Obvious Immediate Solution, Need Intellig
Complexity Inherent in Nature Requires Reliability in Truth Experienc
Guessing Large Part of Reasoning Dimension Matching Patterns
Deferred Rewards Risky May Not Occur Due to Intervening Events
Complexity Requires Integrate Objectives, History, Resources, Need SD
Complexity Mistakes Reduced Correspondence on Web
Save Time by Organizing Record, Instant Access
Intelligence Valued Avoid Incorrect Solutions Caused by Complexity, G
Complexity Obvious Solution Incorrect for Complexity Needs Intelligen
Complexity Bumbling Solution Needed for Information Overload
Imploding on Information Highway
Reality Not Mallable Solutions Must Align with Reality
Solutions Must Align Reality Conservative
Law Unintended Consequences Requires Social Solutions Align with Real
Obvious Solution Fails Complex Problems
Uncommon Sense Counterintuitive Paradigm Shift Creativity Hunches Inc
651901 - ..
651902 - Intelligence Aids Solution Complex Problems, Must Align with Reality
651904 - Gary Johnson in his letter today appears to dispute Paul's view...
651906 - 1. Technological (as opposed to social or political) progress,
651907 - while desirable for many reasons, is not required to solve
651908 - basic human problems. ref DRT 1 045W
651910 - Eric Armstrong in a separate letter explains unintended consequences
651911 - cause greater damage to social values, e.g., environment, which then
651912 - impacts ability to sustain large populations, when reality is not
651913 - understood. ref DRT 3 YJ8K Seems to align with analysis on 001219.
651914 - ref SDS 89 1328 and on environmental impacts. ref SDS 89 MK3A
651916 - Gary maintains that complex problems require organization and analysis
651917 - in order to understand reality of actual cause and effect. ref DRT 2
651918 - FX8N He advises that sometimes a solution to complex human affairs
651919 - that appears "obvious" through direct action, is incorrect,
651920 - ref DRT 2 0P64, Gary explains that reality is not malleable just
651921 - because it is inconvenient. ref DRT 2 0086
651923 - Eric in a second letter agrees. ref DRT 4 OS6H
651925 - NWO... explains complexity causes common sense and intuition to
651926 - fail. ref OF 2 4235 Achieving values requires uncommon sense
651927 - derived from "intelligence" that discovers correlations,
651928 - implications and nuance of cause and effect. ref OF 2 7519 and,
651929 - ref OF 2 4925, see also POIMS. ref OF 1 08A5
651931 - NWO... argues the frequency of encountering complex problems is
651932 - increasing because of increased populations that increase wants,
651933 - desires, regulations and communication and so more complexity.
651934 - ref OF 2 0050 see also letter on 001219, ref SDS 89 4E5M,
651936 - Gary believes many social problems are more complex than they seem,
651937 - ref DRT 2 0180, which conflicts with Paul's understanding, per above.
651938 - ref SDS 0 H84I Gary therefore, recommends KM to enhance capability
651939 - for meeting this challenge of understanding social and political
651940 - problems. ref DRT 2 0134 and ref DRT 2 7X9L
651942 - [...see also above, ref SDS 0 513O
651944 - Using "intellignece" to unravel complexity, and identify solutions
651945 - that are difficult to understand reflects the rule that the...
651948 - ..
651950 - Long way around is the short way there
651953 - ...and aligns with analysis on 001219. ref SDS 89 1045 and ref SDS 89
651954 - 658G
651956 - Above, Paul makes the same argument for charity as an
651957 - investment. ref SDS 0 X16G
651959 - SDS under POIMS technology provides organization, alignment,
651960 - summary connected to detail, which facilitate analysis and
651961 - feedback that comprise, in total, a stronger "intelligence"
651962 - capability to solve problems, as explained in a letter to the
651963 - team, ref DIP 2 9G8N, on 001219. ref SDS 89 6O4K
651965 - On 900319 human reasoning is "guessing" about history of cause
651966 - and effect, and so the ability to command accurate human
651967 - experience improves the chances of effective reasoning, and
651968 - therefore successful efforts to solve complex human problems.
651969 - ref SDS 1 1323
651971 - Similar point was made by professor Joseph Ransdell in his
651972 - explanation of "truth," on 000729. ref SDS 52 0005
651974 - On 900626 tension between planning and acting, thinking and
651975 - doing is core dilemma of management. ref SDS 2 3X4J How much
651976 - time should be invested to understand, and determining when to
651977 - act.
651978 - ..
651979 - Gary notes that progress creating KM software is a predicate to
651980 - solving more complex social problems that Paul raises. ref DRT 2 0180
651982 - Thus, there is a clear difference between Gary's view that social
651983 - problems are complex, ref DRT 2 0180, and so require KM tools to
651984 - help solve, and if that solution is not forth coming, then social
651985 - problems should not be taken up by the DKR team.
651987 - On 000120 it was proposed that small problems be solved first,
651988 - to gain experience solving the larger problems. ref SDS 26 3712
651989 - and ref SDS 26 3071
651991 - Paul argues that working on KM creates a self-defeating spiral of
651992 - increasing complexity, ref SDS 89 T66K, and urges that social
651993 - problems are not too complex that new capability is needed to make
651994 - good progress, so this should be undertaken first. ref SDS 0 H84I
651996 - One course might be for Gary to work on KM, and Paul focus on
651997 - social problems. Paul might provide guidance, if time permits, on
651998 - how KM can aid work on the social problems.
652000 - [...above, Gary makes similar proposal. ref SDS 0 FZ9H and also
652001 - at ref SDS 0 0276
Polarization from Not Understanding Cause and Effect, Requires Intell
Polarization Factions Disputes
Process v. Prescription Male Female Binary Perspective on Values
680601 - ..
680602 - Polarization from Misunderstanding Cause and Effect, No Intelligence
680604 - Gary relates the cycle of inaction and failure from not understanding
680605 - the reality of cause and effect, and instead starting in the wrong
680606 - direction because it feels good at the moment, proposed on 001012.
680607 - ref SDS 64 B4P2
680609 - A problem is stated as being a major issue. ref DRT21
680611 - One or several solutions are proposed.
680613 - Nobody bothers to define what the desired outcomes really are or
680614 - whether there is any set of outcomes upon which agreement can be
680615 - reached. ref DRT 2 VN5L
680617 - <GS5H Forces polarize on the nature of solutions, some adamantly
680618 - opposed, other adamantly in support. The other viewpoint is
680619 - characterized benighted, misguided, and (eventually) evil.
680621 - On 001220 male and female perspections identified as primary
680622 - polarizing forces relative to solutions based on process or on
680623 - prescription. ref SDS 90 XM5K
680625 - <0132 At this point, any attempt to investigate either the
680626 - validity of proposed solutions or of actually workable solutions
680627 - is attacked by both factions.
680629 - At this point, there is no chance of arriving at any workable
680630 - proposal because only those in one faction or the other are ever
680631 - heard.
680632 - ..
680633 - Gary worries that if we can't find a way around this problem,
680634 - the chance of solving other social and political problems seems to to
680635 - be vanishingly small. ref DRT 2 IS7F
680637 - Suppose there is no "solution" to the fact that binary forces
680638 - dominate existence that swings continually between male and female
680639 - emphasis on solutions, that results in moderating the extremes of
680640 - both, cited on 001220. ref SDS 90 XM5K Over spans of years we put
680641 - in play solutions that lead to bad ends, then compensate, and that
680642 - leads to bad ends in the other direction, so back and forth we go
680643 - over decades and centuries.
680645 - This might be considered positively as adding excitement and
680646 - challenge to life.
680648 - People have been solving social and political problems from the
680649 - beginning of time through a continual learning process called
680650 - civilization. There is no reason to believe this will not
680651 - continue, although haltingly -- two steps forward, one step back.
Trial and Error Problem Solving Process
DKR Team Progress Slowed by Endless Debate
Disputes Resolved by Leadership
Assignments Require Authority
Accountability Governance of Project
Project Management Conflicts Open Source Development
Audits of Project Management Help Understand KM
Open Source Needs 100% Planning to Overcome Typical 80% Solution
Progress Slow on DKR Project, Eric Project
Trial and Error in Product Development, Marketing Take Time to Develo
Invest Sunshine Profits Create New Markets Take Time to Grow
821401 - ..
821402 - Problems Discovered Through Trial and Error
821404 - Gary feels not enough is understood about how groups organize or what
821405 - contributes to their success or failure. There are all sorts of
821406 - explanations for business failure rates, ref DRT 2 0142, for example,
821407 - but the only things that can be said with any definiteness are:
821409 - Every enterprise that fails does so because there are one or
821410 - more things that were essential to their survival that were not
821411 - accomplished correctly or to an adequate level. This is a
821412 - tautology, and yet it gets lost in the myriad of "single point"
821413 - explanations. ref DRT 2 B17N
821415 - <0151 We still haven"t identified a workable set of factors for
821416 - organizational success. ref DRT 2 0151
821418 - This point requires clarification in based on profundity of
821419 - research available from history, philosophy, government,
821420 - social science, management science.
821422 - KM seeks to integrate this range of experience to provide a
821423 - coherent theory of intelligence, explained in POIMS.
821424 - ref OF 1 KE1T
821426 - As a result, every new organization begins in ignorance of
821427 - whatever success principle there might be, and ends up having to
821428 - discover the success factors by trial and error, and the search
821429 - for success factors is not even explicit in the group.
821431 - Organizations begin with experience of people who start them,
821432 - which is often limited by lack of experience deeling with the
821433 - broad range of issues that eventually arise, and so in the
821434 - beginning is dominated by people with technical expertise.
821436 - Trial and error comes from life experience, and so is a good
821437 - teacher, especially if people proactively experiment in a
821438 - controlled manner using sunshine profits to discover
821439 - challenges and opportunities, rather than be driven to the
821440 - wall of extinction, when only luck is the savior, as noted by
821441 - Grove, reviewed on 980307. ref SDS 13 3416
821444 - ..
821445 - DKR Team Progress Slow Due to Lack of Resources and Authority
821447 - Gary worries the DKR team is having similar problems that cause slow
821448 - progress. He cites little agreement on what we are trying to do, why
821449 - we are trying to do it, or even how to frame these questions in a way
821450 - that stands a chance of arriving at answers rather than endless,
821451 - largely pointless debate. ref DRT 2 0159
821453 - [On 010719 Gary frustrated about difficulty creating better
821454 - technology for knowledge work; feels this will not occur soon.
821455 - ref SDS 94 GH7I
821457 - Gary's inquiry aligns with Eric Armstrongs letter on 000927.
821458 - ref SDS 59 0001
821460 - On 001130 Paul Fernhout submitted an article reporting that IBM is
821461 - having the same problem releasing a KM capability. The record
821462 - shows a broader history that other KM projects have failed.
821463 - ref SDS 87 F26K This indicates KM is a difficult probject, so
821464 - progress will necessariliy be slow until a theory of knowledge is
821465 - formulated that can be addressed meaningfully by technology.
821467 - On 000928 Eugene Kim advised that contributors can proceed to make
821468 - progress on their ideas for a DKR. ref SDS 60 1Y9I He noted delay
821469 - due to lack of understanding about KM. ref SDS 60 X57F On 001121
821470 - ideas were presented for the team to learn about KM through trial
821471 - and error by doing KM, rather than continuing to rely solely on
821472 - IT. ref SDS 82 XU8I On 001126 Eugene set out ideas for the team
821473 - to learn KM by doing IT. ref SDS 86 T63N
821475 - Grant Bowman pointed out that IT methods do not work very well for
821476 - accomplishing Eugene's KM agenda. ref SDS 86 X8PW
821478 - Progress learning and developing KM depends on setting objectives,
821479 - making plans, assignments, and holding people accountable. This
821480 - requires resources to reward progress, and authority to make
821481 - changes for lack of progress.
821483 - Both are absent from DKR team.
821485 - On 001014 Open Source production was proposed so people can have
821486 - fun doing what we want, in hopes that synergy will yield progress.
821487 - ref SDS 64 PT5M and earlier citing "termite" management methods
821488 - on 000831. ref SDS 56 0001 On 001025 leadership supported Open
821489 - Source management methods. ref SDS 67 ADK1 Gary points out today
821490 - that often complex problems require not doing what we want, but
821491 - doing what needs to be done that isn't an obvious solution.
821492 - ref SDS 0 L76K This requires rewards and authority within the
821493 - meaning of "management," and "project management."
Distribution. . . . See "CONTACTS"