THE WELCH COMPANY
440 Davis Court #1602
San Francisco, CA 94111-2496
415 781 5700
S U M M A R Y
DIARY: July 5, 2001 10:04 AM Thursday;
Rod Welch
Stocks fall because of poor earnings.
1...Summary/Objective
2...Stocks 100 Times Earnings, Depression Stocks were 29 Times Earnings
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CONTACTS
SUBJECTS
Recession Reduced Earnings Stock Prices Decimated
Computer Software Enterprise Sector Earnings Sales Decline
Enterprise/Knowledge Management Does Not Improve Productivity, Reliab
Too Many People Having Too Many Problems Earnings Fall Because Produc
Telecom Wireless Industry Bankrupt Needs Killer Application Customers
Marconi Telecom Wireless Cut Earnings Forecasts by 50% Stock Price De
IT Failing Needs KM Convert Information into Knowledge
Failed Promises Technology Has Not Improved Management
Usefulness Not Marketing Criteria
Stock Prices 100 Times Earnings 1929 Depression Stock Prices 29 Times
Earnings to Price Ration 100 Times Far Lower than During Great Depres
Stock Prices 100 Times Earnings Much Higher than Depression Prices On
2914 - ..
2915 - Summary/Objective
2916 -
291601 - Follow up ref SDS A4 0000, ref SDS A3 0000.
291602 -
291603 - Reuters article today reports stocks across a wide spectrum of the
291604 - economy fell again today because earnings are still falling,
291605 - ref OF 14 0001, which continues trends reported on 001207. ref SDS 90
291606 - V54M Gloomy corporate profit forecasts trickled in from Knight Trading
291607 - Group Inc. Whatever news there is, is negative, and it's just kind of
291608 - weighing on the market. ref OF 14 006P
291609 -
291610 - Leading telecom company, Marconi, has reduced earnings forecasts by
291611 - 50%, because sales orders are declining, ref OF 14 1H5J This led to
291612 - a 50% decline in the stock price to $3.37. ref OF 14 006J Seems to
291613 - align with worry during conference in Paris on 010223 that telecom
291614 - industry is going bankrupt because it is not offering products that
291615 - improve productivity of customers. ref SDS 95 FM6J
291616 -
291617 - On 951228 "usefulness" is not a design criteria for computers.
291618 - ref SDS 14 3883
291619 -
291620 - This suggests analysis was correct "connecting the dots" on 001207
291621 - that proposed "usefulness" could be a better strategy, ref SDS 90
291622 - MZ7G, than "neat" and "cool" games, discussed on 970116. ref SDS 31
291623 - I14O On 950927 people were giving up on usefulness, ref SDS 12 7732,
291624 - because it is hard to produce technology for knowledge work, noted by
291625 - Landauer on 950710. ref SDS 11 1222
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291628 -
291629 - Stocks 100 Times Earnings, Depression Stocks were 29 Times Earnings
291630 -
291631 - Received ref DRT 1 0001 from Jack Park transmitting a link to an
291632 - article and quoting in part saying....
291633 -
291634 - ....warning investors that the recent 'technology bubble ... was
291635 - far bigger than any previous bubble of any nation ever.' Now is
291636 - not the time to buy common stocks." ref DRT 1 AG5M
291637 -
291638 - How high were the prices [in 1929] in relation to earnings? The
291639 - maximum was 29 times earnings. Now, in the recent bubble, the
291640 - Nasdaq went up to 300 times earnings and is still over 100 times
291641 - earnings, even now." ref DRT 1 KG6L
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