THE WELCH COMPANY
440 Davis Court #1602
San Francisco, CA 94111-2496
415 781 5700
S U M M A R Y
DIARY: February 23, 2001 08:20 AM Friday;
Intel defers hiring, raises due to slow economy; warns about wireless.
2...Slow Economy Causes Reduction in Hiring, Spending
3...Bankruptcy Facing Wireless Industry
4...Wireless Industry Going Bankrupt; Needs Killer Application
5...Customers - Cannot Predict Direction or Size of New Markets
6...Killer Application Needed to Save Wireless Industry from Bankruptcy
7...Customers Determine Markets; Need Powerful Advance that is Stable
8...Stable Knowledge Foundation Supports Rapid High Level Evolution
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Implode Cannot Buy-off Mistakes Sunshine Profits Innovation Monopoly
Communication Biggest Risk of Mistakes
Bumbling Email Constant Mistakes
Productivity Ergonomics Impact Management
Intel Forecasts Lower Earnings
Killer App Collaboration Communication Civilization Shows Cost Saving
Industry Seeks Killer Application KM Demand High Frustrated
Core Capability KM Not Understood, Eric Armstrong
KM Not Understood, Needs Killer Application
Problem Handling Solves Information Overload
Competence Fear Accountability Innovation Loop Knowledge Avoids Mista
Huge Needs for OHS/DKR, Eric Armstrong
Hiring Curtailed Pay Raises Deferred
Telecom Wireless Industry Bankrupt Needs Killer Application Customers
3416 - ..
3417 - Summary/Objective
341801 - Follow up ref SDS 95 0000, ref SDS 73 0000.
341803 - Letter from Jack Park today plans innovative Knowledge Management
341804 - solution, based on SDS core technology, ref SDS A0 1D5J, which is the
341805 - general catagory of issues discussed at world conference held in Paris
341806 - today, per below. ref SDS 0 FM6J
341808 - Letter to Jack, ref SDS A0 4RD8, mentions report today, per below,
341809 - that Intel cites need for "killer application," ref SDS 0 WG8O,
341810 - and notes difficulty accomplishing this, ref SDS 0 W56J, which
341811 - aligns with Jack's letter on 010223 saying his design will not be
341812 - easy. ref SDS A0 N5RW
341814 - Letter to John Deneen, who specializes in wireless technologies,
341815 - cites the record reviewing John's summary of meetings with SRI,
341816 - IBM and Pacific Consultants on 010222, proposing a value chain of
341817 - innovative wireless personal devices. products. Intel's concerns
341818 - reported here from world conference in Paris on challenges facing
341819 - wireless techologies, ref SDS 0 FM6J, are linked to the record on
341820 - John's important work, for reference. ref SDS A1 0Z3M
341824 - ..
341825 - Slow Economy Causes Reduction in Hiring, Spending
341827 - Follow up ref SDS 95 V54M, ref SDS 92 QR6K.
341829 - ABC News carried report by Reuters on 010220 that Intel Corp.
341830 - (NasdaqNM:INTC - news) is instituting cost cuts to save several
341831 - hundred million dollars. ref OF 12 0001
341833 - Senior management's annual performance pay raise, usually given in
341834 - April, will be deferred until October at the earliest. Regular
341835 - salaried employees will receive half their performance pay raise in
341836 - April. Intel will reevaluate business conditions in October 2001 and
341837 - decide then whether to pay the annual performance raises or to defer
341838 - them further. ref OF 12 YL6K
341840 - [On 010226 Intel expected to cut capital spending. ref SDS A2 0001
341842 - [On 010308 Intel warns sales are down 25%, announces plans for
341843 - 5,000 layoffs. ref SDS A3 0001
341845 - [On 020131 Morris retired from Business Unit manager position to
341846 - work on product development. ref SDS A7 0001
341847 - ..
341848 - Overtime, travel and consultancy work will be cut.
341850 - Capital expenditure budget of $7.5 billion and its research and
341851 - development budget for 2001 are not affected. ref OF 12 008J
341853 - Hiring will be limited to "key strategic technical and engineering in
341854 - the hope to trim the work force by the end of the year through
341855 - attrition and the slowdown in hiring. ref OF 12 PQ7N
341857 - Also, Intel will defer its free-PC program until 2002 for salaried
341858 - employees who have yet to receive a home computer. Hourly employees
341859 - have the option to get their free PC now or to defer and wait for a
341860 - more powerful one. ref OF 12 004K
341862 - "The quarter's going to be what we thought it would be to the best of
341863 - our knowledge right now," Mulloy said. "There is no change in
341864 - guidance, no change in cap-ex, no change in R and D.
341865 - ..
341866 - Intel shares fell $2-1/4, or 6.7 percent, to $32-1/8, in
341867 - late-afternoon trading on Nasdaq
341869 - ..
341870 - Bankruptcy Facing Wireless Industry
341871 - Wireless Industry Going Bankrupt; Needs Killer Application
341873 - CANNES, France (Reuters) - Intel Corp, the world's largest computer
341874 - chip maker, on Friday said the telecom industry was heading for
341875 - financial woes because of its heavy spending on yet unproven next
341876 - generation of wireless technologies. ref OF 13 0001
341878 - "We're facing a situation of where an industry is heading for
341879 - bankruptcy...before even a 3G (third-generation mobile phone) call is
341880 - made," Intel Vice-President and General Manager Hans Geyer told
341881 - delegates at the GSM World Congress. ref OF 13 S66M
341883 - [On 010703 PC industry needs compelling application. ref SDS A5
341884 - GM4N
341886 - [On 010705 Marconi telecom wireless cuts earnings forecasts by 50%
341887 - due to lower sales, stock falls 50%. ref SDS A6 0001
341889 - [...in another record Jack Park explains innovative design for
341890 - using OHS architecture using SDS for core technology; and notes it
341891 - will not be easy to work everything out. ref SDS A0 N5RW
341893 - [...in another record John Deneen explains meetings to showcase at
341894 - Olympics in Utah value chain of innovative personal wireless
341895 - devices. ref SDS A1 008G
341897 - Intel is quickly becoming one of the key suppliers of semiconductors
341898 - to the wireless telecom industry, selling processors and memory chips.
341899 - ref OF 13 008J
341901 - [On 020131 Morris retired from Business Unit manager position to
341902 - work on product development. ref SDS A7 0001
341904 - Mobile telecom operators including Vodafone, France Telecom , Deutsche
341905 - Telekom and Telefonica last year sank over $100 billion into new radio
341906 - spectrum licenses, also known as 3G licenses. ref OF 13 V77L
341908 - Geyer said they were likely to spend a similar amount to buy networks
341909 - to run these new systems which are expected to deliver fast Internet
341910 - services to mobile phones. ref OF 13 P78F
341913 - ..
341914 - Customers - Cannot Predict Direction or Size of New Markets
341915 - Killer Application Needed to Save Wireless Industry from Bankruptcy
341917 - Geyer, attending the world's largest annual mobile phone trade show in
341918 - Cannes, said the industry should work on finding and building services
341919 - and applications that consumers would want and would buy. ref OF 13
341920 - 004L
341921 - ..
341922 - "We shouldn't worry about whether [the...] vision is the right
341923 - one," users will decide what they want. I can't predict what they
341924 - will want." ref OF 13 00FK Focus on what can be done with current
341925 - technologies, rather than on what future technologies will be able to
341926 - do. ref OF 13 G44K
341928 - [On 020131 Morris retired from Business Unit manager position to
341929 - work on product development. ref SDS A7 0001
341931 - How can product developers determine what consumers would want
341932 - and would buy?
341934 - This is an age old question that is answered by two distinct
341935 - schools of marketing:
341937 - 1. Feel Good, Bread and circuses, give people something that
341938 - is fun and easy to use at the moment, certainly it should
341939 - be entertaining.
341941 - 2. Add Value: use empathic design to study how work is
341942 - performed and develop something that makes doing the work
341943 - faster and more useful for getting work done, avoiding
341944 - problems, solving problems, and discovering opportunities.
341945 - Educate people about advantages of saving time and money.
341947 - Recent reports on 001207 indicate that too many people are having
341948 - too many problems causing productivity, earnings and stock prices
341949 - to fall, indicates there may an audience for option 2.
341950 - ref SDS 95 V54M
341952 - Sales growth of mobile phones is leveling off to 20-25 percent
341953 - annually from 50-60 percent levels in the last several years, which
341954 - means operators can no longer grow their way out of unprofitable
341955 - business plans. ref OF 13 H88N
341957 - Aligns with Drucker's point that eventually favorable market
341958 - conditions recede and performance, i.e., consistent earnings,
341959 - depend on the quality of management; this grows a market for
341960 - tools to strengthen management by making it fast and easy to use
341961 - good practices. reviewed on 931130. ref SDS 5 1504 see, also,
341962 - Covey on 921205. ref SDS 3 2552
341964 - Geyer said the telecoms industry should learn from the personal
341965 - computer market and warned operators and wireless companies from
341966 - trying to find a single so-called "killer application," one which
341967 - alone would justify the technology. ref OF 13 006K
341968 - ..
341969 - "The PC industry has not seen one 'killer application'," said
341970 - Geyer, who made the comments during a panel discussion which included
341971 - executives from Psion, Siemens, Microsoft, and Handspring. The
341972 - discussion came after Japan's Sony Corp and Psion presented their
341973 - visions of the wireless future. ref OF 13 E99L
341975 - [On 020131 Morris retired from Business Unit manager position to
341976 - work on product development. ref SDS A7 0001
341978 - Seems to align with Andy Grove's comment on 000513 that there is no
341979 - "killer app" on the horizon. ref SDS 83 5672
341981 - Geyer is incorrect. Killer applications were essential to grow a
341982 - new industry.
341984 - Wordprocessing, spreadsheets, presentation programs, like
341985 - Powerpoint, web browsers and games have been "killer
341986 - applications" that built the PC industry, i.e., fueled sales and
341987 - use of of computers and software. Now ebusiness tools that
341988 - facilitate financial transactions on the Internet are somewhat
341989 - "killer applications" that sustain the PC industry.
341991 - [On 010622 alphabet technology makes people superhuman,
341992 - "killer app of the ages. ref SDS A4 N668
341994 - On 950927 Intel reviewed SDS for a "Killer Application" that
341995 - augments human intelligence by adding time management to
341996 - traditional information management to provide a spreadsheet for
341997 - knowledge. ref SDS 14 2742 and ref SDS 14 2899
341999 - The current problem is that people run out of ideas on how to
342000 - improve existing "Killer Applications" so there is no growth in
342001 - these now established markets. Larry Ellison, CEO and Founder of
342002 - Oracle, reported, possibly at this same Paris conference, that
342003 - there is nothing more to do with wordprocessing, and therefore a
342004 - new "Killer Application" is needed. see the record on 970222.
342005 - ref SDS 33 3967
342007 - On 000927 Eric Armstrong reported a "huge need" for the OHS/DKR
342008 - project to solve world problems, which aligns with the work
342009 - today. ref SDS 88 VX5J An industry that needs a killer
342010 - application to stave off bankruptcy seems to represent a huge
342011 - need.
Stable Capability Needed Improve Productivity Absorb into Work Practi
Information Overload Creates Overwhelming Complexity Leading to Entro
Meltdown, Management Imploding on Itself
Intel Can't Predict What People Want
450801 - ..
450802 - Customers Determine Markets; Need Powerful Advance that is Stable
450803 - Stable Knowledge Foundation Supports Rapid High Level Evolution
450805 - "We shouldn't worry about whether Sony's (or other companies)
450806 - vision is the right one," Geyer said. "It doesn't matter which vision
450807 - is the right one... users will decide what they want. I can't predict
450808 - what they will want." ref OF 13 00FK
450810 - On 990527 Clay Christensen's book on disruptive technology said
450811 - markets have to be grown, and this takes investment in products
450812 - that add value. Estimates of sales are meaningless. ref SDS 75
450813 - 7372
450815 - Vision is not the important factor of successful CEOs; they need
450816 - help, like everyone else, using good work practices consistently.
450817 - This requires a Killer Application that empowers people to solve
450818 - the problem of information overload, reported on 990625.
450819 - ref SDS 76 7344
450821 - ..
450822 - "The focus should...be on the current technologies and what can be
450823 - done with them," said Joe Sipher, vice-president of product marketing
450824 - at handheld device maker Handspring. ref OF 13 G44K
450826 - "I'm worried that the focus is too much on future technologies and
450827 - what they will be able to do," he said. ref OF 13 00GT
450829 - ..
450830 - This aligns with analysis on 010221 about planning for a wirelss
450831 - application of some kind, rather than focusing on what can be
450832 - done with what we know adds value, SDS. ref SDS 99 EM6G
450834 - On 000327 reviewed with Doug Engelbart need for stable technology
450835 - so people have time to absorb and apply useful methods in their
450836 - daily work practice, otherwise nothing is every implemented and
450837 - productivity never improves. ref SDS 82 8484 and ref SDS 82 4420
450839 - This scenario leads to information overload, and management
450840 - imploding, explained in NWO. ref OF 5 7501