THE WELCH COMPANY
440 Davis Court #1602
San Francisco, CA 94111-2496
415 781 5700


S U M M A R Y


DIARY: November 12, 1995 07:49 PM Sunday; Rod Welch

Develop estimate of effort for Communication Metrics on ALRS project.

1...Summary/Objective
2...Overview
.....Launch Project HRS
......................Total Project Launch...............772 772
.....Design Hrs per Month
........Concept
......................Say 12 months at....................122 1464
.....Project Ready for Bid HRS
......................Total Pre-Bid Review................320 320
.....Construction Launch
......................Total Construction Launch...........160 160
.....Construction Hrs Per Month
......................Say 18 months @.....................108 = 1944
.....Commission Hrs Per Month
......................Total Commission....................160 160
3...Total hours preliminary estimate................................4,820
......Using 160 Hrs/Month = 30 Months
4...Risk Management Assessment


..............
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CONTACTS 

SUBJECTS
Kwan Henmi, Communication Metrics
Initiating Project, Develop Team, Welch
Welch Scope with KH

0805 -    ..
0806 - Summary/Objective
0807 -
080701 - Follow up ref SDS 2 0000, ref SDS 1 1360.
080702 -
080703 - Preliminary estimate indicates Welch effort could require about 4800
080704 - hours or approximately 30 months based on scope discussed with Denis
080705 - on 951109, ref SDS 1 1360, for a 3 year project. ref SDS 1 1048
080706 -
080707 -                               Months              Welch Hours
080708 -
080709 -        Launch Project            4                     772
080710 -        Design Project           12   122 Hrs/Month   1,464
080711 -        Pre-bid review            2                     320
080712 -        Construction Launch                             160
080713 -        Construction             18   108 Hrs/Month   1,944
080714 -        Commission                                      160
080715 -                               -----                 --------
080716 -                                 36                   4,820
080717 -
080718 -   [On 951113 hourly rates were discussed with Denis. ref SDS 3 5922]
080719 -
080720 -   [On 951115 hours exceed budget. ref SDS 4 1035]
080721 -
080722 -
080723 - This is a high risk project per ref SDS 1 line 83, as discussed below.
080724 -
080725 -
080726 -
0808 -
0809 -
0810 - Progress
0811 -
081101 - Overview
081102 -
081103 - This analysis accomplishes the scope discussed with Denis, ref SDS 1
081104 - line 527 per discussion at ref SDS 1 line 455, and distributes among
081105 - primary project phases: launch, design, build and commission.  Launch
081106 - sets up agreements, schedules, budgets, business processes and
081107 - introduces people and organizations to put the design function into
081108 - operation.
081109 -
081110 - The Design effort theoretically requires only periodic Communication
081111 - support, since the Launch effort has implemented key processes.  This
081112 - assumption could prove incorrect, if the volume and quality of
081113 - communication between the consultants and those outside the KH team
081114 - turns out to require special attention.  My sense is on this project
081115 - that the likelihood of this happening is about 60% due to the
081116 - complexity of the project, ref SDS 1 line 84.
081117 -
081118 - Pre-Bid analysis can require major Welch support to ensure the bid
081119 - documents do not build in contracting problems.  This entire effort,
081120 - however, could be eliminated from Welch scope if KH determines it is
081121 - being performed by others.
081122 -
081123 - Pre-Construction Launch is needed for same purpose as Pre-bid
081124 - analysis.  This is aimed in part at deciding the level of effort
081125 - needed by Welch, based on responsiveness of contractor.
081126 -
081127 -
081128 -
081129 -     Launch Project                                       HRS
081130 -
081131 -     The below analysis shows 1 person 5 months to start the project.
081132 -     It could be that all of this work does not materialize.  It
081133 -     contemplates initial 2 - 3 months of pre-design project
081134 -     organization work, then continuing the effort through the first
081135 -     month or so of design.  If things are going well, Welch support
081136 -     can taper off sooner.
081137 -
081138 -
081139 -     Configure Welch Workstation                           24
081140 -     Support KH staff on SDS through collaboration         80
081141 -     Develop Welch KH Computer interface                   24
081142 -     Subject Index                                         48 *
081143 -
081144 -        *  The SI is ongoing, but initial structure entails
081145 -           major effort and sometimes several starts to get
081146 -           an approach that best fits the specifics of a
081147 -           project.
081148 -
081149 -     Contacts, data entry for SDS                          16 *
081150 -
081151 -        *  Contacts are ongoing, but generally, after the
081152 -           first push is done, additional contacts are added
081153 -           as needed.
081154 -
081155 -     Project Launch CMP                                    32
081156 -     Project Procedures                                    80
081157 -
081158 -        Support QM and PM in KH manual review
081159 -
081160 -           All of these steps require considering current
081161 -           procedures from written material and interviewing
081162 -           KH staff, and Consultants to develop processes
081163 -           that meet needs of this project.
081164 -
081165 -        Develop anticipated work flow, responsibilities for work
081166 -        packages and between KH, consultants and Airport
081167 -
081168 -           How will submittals be managed -- turn around;
081169 -           getting qualified people to review, approve.
081170 -
081171 -        Determine project meetings for design phase
081172 -
081173 -        Develop Document Management System interface with SDS
081174 -        document log.
081175 -
081176 -     Review KH Agreement with Airport                      24
081177 -
081178 -        What plans and writings define scope of project?
081179 -
081180 -        Interview KH staff on their sense of assignment
081181 -        and scope.
081182 -
081183 -     Develop scope consultants                            120
081184 -
081185 -        Review writings from consultants
081186 -        Interview consultants; subconsultants
081187 -        Discuss with KH QM and PM
081188 -        Report areas of vagueness and recommend solutions
081189 -        Follow up and finalize adequate language
081190 -
081191 -     Project Launch Meeting, KH project executives          8
081192 -
081193 -        "Major Meetings" require time to review
081194 -        record, prepare agenda, contact players in
081195 -        advance of meeting to ensure key points are
081196 -        understood and what conflicts exist.  Do the
081197 -        meeting.  Writing it up and linking to prior
081198 -        events and external sources to discover any
081199 -        conflicts; contacting attendees for clarifications
081200 -        on conflicts.  Making distribution.  Scheduling
081201 -        follow up and doing follow up contacts
081202 -
081203 -           This "collaboration" scope called out in
081204 -           Denis' scope at ref SDS 1 line 553.
081205 -
081206 -     Project Launch Meeting, KH project team               16
081207 -
081208 -     Project Launch Meeting, KH & KH Consultants           32
081209 -
081210 -     CPM Schedule                                         160
081211 -     Budget                                                40
081212 -
081213 -        Integrate Cost & Schedule
081214 -
081215 -     Project Launch Meeting with Airport                   24
081216 -
081217 -     Airport PM & Admin requirements, e.g., claims         40
081218 -
081219 -     Risk Analysis                                         40
081220 -
081221 -        This is ongoing, as part of all of the above,
081222 -        but there should be dedicated attention with
081223 -        respect to staffing, KH procedures and insurance
081224 -        and legal team support.
081225 -
081226 -                                                        ------
081227 -                      Total Project Launch...............772      772
081228 -
081229 -        The objective is to have after 3 - 4 months the project design
081230 -        "process" functioning, including the Communication and Quality
081231 -        Management Program.  The Welch hours of 772 are 4 - 5 months
081232 -        which reflects continuing effort during actual design, an over
081233 -        estimate of time, or need for more staff to meet completion
081234 -        objectives.
081235 -
081236 -
081237 -
081238 -     Design                                           Hrs per Month
081239 -
081240 -     Capture SDS record .. Welch 10 hours per week         40 *
081241 -
081242 -        Concept
081243 -
081244 -        Welch will not attend all design meetings.  The KH people who
081245 -        attend will maintain Architect Logs, and these Log notes will
081246 -        be transcribed by KH and integrated into SDS by Welch, ref SDS
081247 -        1 line 283 and ref SDS 1 line 526 and ref SDS 1 line 588. Welch
081248 -        will issue meeting notes as needed to clarify meaning.
081249 -
081250 -        It is expected that after the first 3 - 4 months of project
081251 -        launch activity, KH architects' notes will improve, so less
081252 -        Welch time may be needed to clarify understandings.
081253 -
081254 -      * It may turn out that we don't need this task at all.  We will
081255 -        just use the Architect's logs as a resource for tying
081256 -        everything together for Major Meetings.
081257 -
081258 -     Attend Major Meetings    3 per month at 24            72
081259 -
081260 -        Maybe this can be reduced to 1 or 2 per month
081261 -        depending upon the Project Procedures manual.
081262 -
081263 -     CPM & Budget Status, Maintain                         10
081264 -
081265 -     Correspondence                                         -
081266 -
081267 -        Welch will provide correspondence support during project
081268 -        launch, but once the project is up and running, routine
081269 -        design correspondence should not require Welch support other
081270 -        than for CPM & Budget issues.
081271 -
081272 -        If something special develops, such as a scope change, change
081273 -        order disputes, or claims, then additional Welch support would
081274 -        be added based on the magnitude of that effort.
081275 -
081276 -                                                        ------
081277 -                      Say 12 months at....................122      1464
081278 -
081279 -           *  Note we may be able to eliminate the 40 hours per month
081280 -              which would reduce the total to 82 hours. I recommend
081281 -              budgeting for the higher value because my sense is there
081282 -              will be a lot more unanticipated stuff that will expand
081283 -              the "Attend Major Meetings" account.
081284 -
081285 -
081286 -
081287 -     Project Ready for Bid                                HRS
081288 -
081289 -     Review bid documents                                 320
081290 -
081291 -     Develop claim procedures, notice provisions, RFIs
081292 -
081293 -        This will be done with Airport, KH and counsel.
081294 -
081295 -     Schedule and Cost review
081296 -
081297 -     Contractor Requirements
081298 -
081299 -        CPM
081300 -
081301 -        Project Meetings
081302 -
081303 -        Project Records, Communications
081304 -
081305 -           Traceability procedures
081306 -
081307 -        Design overview of major vendor off-site design and
081308 -        fabrication performance.
081309 -
081310 -     Risk Analysis
081311 -
081312 -        KH - what is KH direct exposure
081313 -
081314 -        Project Success - what can impair
081315 -
081316 -                                                        ------
081317 -                      Total Pre-Bid Review................320      320
081318 -
081319 -
081320 -
081321 -     Construction Launch
081322 -
081323 -     Project Launch Meeting                                80
081324 -
081325 -     Review CPM                                            80
081326 -                                                        ------
081327 -                      Total Construction Launch...........160      160
081328 -
081329 -
081330 -
081331 -     Construction                                     Hrs  Per Month
081332 -
081333 -     Capture SDS record .. Welch 10 hours per week         40 *
081334 -
081335 -     Attend Major Meetings    1 per month at 24            24
081336 -
081337 -       These two items cover "collaboration" per
081338 -       ref SDS 1 line 553.
081339 -
081340 -     CPM status, maintain                                  10
081341 -
081342 -     Correspondence & Claims    (this could be 60)         10
081343 -
081344 -         If major claims arise, then they have to financed
081345 -         as needed, or bought off.
081346 -
081347 -     Pay Estimate             1 per month at 16            16
081348 -
081349 -     Long Lead Materials Oversight                          8
081350 -                                                         ------
081351 -                      Say 18 months @.....................108   = 1944
081352 -
081353 -           *  Note we may be able to eliminate the 40 hours per month
081354 -              which would reduce the total to 68 hours. I recommend
081355 -              budgeting for the higher value because my sense is there
081356 -              will be a lot more unanticipated stuff that occurs with
081357 -              other structures, contractors and agencies that will
081358 -              expand the "Attend Major Meetings" account.
081359 -
081360 -
081361 -     Commission                                       Hrs  Per Month
081362 -
081363 -     This is primarily a claims and change order          160
081364 -     negotiation effort that extends beyond
081365 -     substantial completion.  At least one month
081366 -     full time should be allowed to resolve issues
081367 -     or assemble them in a form that can be turned
081368 -     over to dedicated claims consultants.
081369 -
081370 -                                                        ------
081371 -                      Total Commission....................160      160
081372 -
081373 -
081374 - Total hours preliminary estimate................................4,820
081375 -
081376 -
081377 -      Using 160 Hrs/Month  =                                  30 Months
081378 -
081379 -
081380 -  ..
081381 - Risk Management Assessment
081382 -
081383 - It may be best to budget Communication Metrics full time for the
081384 - entire project duration, and hope that a third or half of it can be
081385 - saved under above scenarios.  There appears to be an equally strong
081386 - likelihood that the above numbers could be higher, if significant
081387 - difficulty occurs dealing with outside agencies and related projects,
081388 - per ref SDS 1 1048, for design coordination, ref SDS 1 1360 and later
081389 - for construction. ref SDS 1 7403
081390 -
081391 - If things go well, this effort can be accomplished with half to a
081392 - third of these projected hours.
081393 -
081394 - If there are significant delays getting information from organizations
081395 - outside the project team, if the information is of poor quality, if
081396 - the contractor underbids and seeks to make up the difference in
081397 - claims, if bad weather impacts performance, if latent conditions are
081398 - encountered, if a major vendor delays the work, then impacts can
081399 - snowball into difficulties that could easily increase the Welch
081400 - effort.
081401 -
081402 -     [See follow up at ref SDS 4 line 72 and at ref SDS 5 line 75.]
081403 -
081404 -
081405 -
0815 -