THE WELCH COMPANY
440 Davis Court #1602
San Francisco, CA 94111-2496
415 781 5700
S U M M A R Y
DIARY: November 12, 1995 07:49 PM Sunday;
Rod Welch
Develop estimate of effort for Communication Metrics on ALRS project.
1...Summary/Objective
2...Overview
.....Launch Project HRS
......................Total Project Launch...............772 772
.....Design Hrs per Month
........Concept
......................Say 12 months at....................122 1464
.....Project Ready for Bid HRS
......................Total Pre-Bid Review................320 320
.....Construction Launch
......................Total Construction Launch...........160 160
.....Construction Hrs Per Month
......................Say 18 months @.....................108 = 1944
.....Commission Hrs Per Month
......................Total Commission....................160 160
3...Total hours preliminary estimate................................4,820
......Using 160 Hrs/Month = 30 Months
4...Risk Management Assessment
..............
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CONTACTS
SUBJECTS
Kwan Henmi, Communication Metrics
Initiating Project, Develop Team, Welch
Welch Scope with KH
0805 - ..
0806 - Summary/Objective
0807 -
080701 - Follow up ref SDS 2 0000, ref SDS 1 1360.
080702 -
080703 - Preliminary estimate indicates Welch effort could require about 4800
080704 - hours or approximately 30 months based on scope discussed with Denis
080705 - on 951109, ref SDS 1 1360, for a 3 year project. ref SDS 1 1048
080706 -
080707 - Months Welch Hours
080708 -
080709 - Launch Project 4 772
080710 - Design Project 12 122 Hrs/Month 1,464
080711 - Pre-bid review 2 320
080712 - Construction Launch 160
080713 - Construction 18 108 Hrs/Month 1,944
080714 - Commission 160
080715 - ----- --------
080716 - 36 4,820
080717 -
080718 - [On 951113 hourly rates were discussed with Denis. ref SDS 3 5922]
080719 -
080720 - [On 951115 hours exceed budget. ref SDS 4 1035]
080721 -
080722 -
080723 - This is a high risk project per ref SDS 1 line 83, as discussed below.
080724 -
080725 -
080726 -
0808 -
0809 -
0810 - Progress
0811 -
081101 - Overview
081102 -
081103 - This analysis accomplishes the scope discussed with Denis, ref SDS 1
081104 - line 527 per discussion at ref SDS 1 line 455, and distributes among
081105 - primary project phases: launch, design, build and commission. Launch
081106 - sets up agreements, schedules, budgets, business processes and
081107 - introduces people and organizations to put the design function into
081108 - operation.
081109 -
081110 - The Design effort theoretically requires only periodic Communication
081111 - support, since the Launch effort has implemented key processes. This
081112 - assumption could prove incorrect, if the volume and quality of
081113 - communication between the consultants and those outside the KH team
081114 - turns out to require special attention. My sense is on this project
081115 - that the likelihood of this happening is about 60% due to the
081116 - complexity of the project, ref SDS 1 line 84.
081117 -
081118 - Pre-Bid analysis can require major Welch support to ensure the bid
081119 - documents do not build in contracting problems. This entire effort,
081120 - however, could be eliminated from Welch scope if KH determines it is
081121 - being performed by others.
081122 -
081123 - Pre-Construction Launch is needed for same purpose as Pre-bid
081124 - analysis. This is aimed in part at deciding the level of effort
081125 - needed by Welch, based on responsiveness of contractor.
081126 -
081127 -
081128 -
081129 - Launch Project HRS
081130 -
081131 - The below analysis shows 1 person 5 months to start the project.
081132 - It could be that all of this work does not materialize. It
081133 - contemplates initial 2 - 3 months of pre-design project
081134 - organization work, then continuing the effort through the first
081135 - month or so of design. If things are going well, Welch support
081136 - can taper off sooner.
081137 -
081138 -
081139 - Configure Welch Workstation 24
081140 - Support KH staff on SDS through collaboration 80
081141 - Develop Welch KH Computer interface 24
081142 - Subject Index 48 *
081143 -
081144 - * The SI is ongoing, but initial structure entails
081145 - major effort and sometimes several starts to get
081146 - an approach that best fits the specifics of a
081147 - project.
081148 -
081149 - Contacts, data entry for SDS 16 *
081150 -
081151 - * Contacts are ongoing, but generally, after the
081152 - first push is done, additional contacts are added
081153 - as needed.
081154 -
081155 - Project Launch CMP 32
081156 - Project Procedures 80
081157 -
081158 - Support QM and PM in KH manual review
081159 -
081160 - All of these steps require considering current
081161 - procedures from written material and interviewing
081162 - KH staff, and Consultants to develop processes
081163 - that meet needs of this project.
081164 -
081165 - Develop anticipated work flow, responsibilities for work
081166 - packages and between KH, consultants and Airport
081167 -
081168 - How will submittals be managed -- turn around;
081169 - getting qualified people to review, approve.
081170 -
081171 - Determine project meetings for design phase
081172 -
081173 - Develop Document Management System interface with SDS
081174 - document log.
081175 -
081176 - Review KH Agreement with Airport 24
081177 -
081178 - What plans and writings define scope of project?
081179 -
081180 - Interview KH staff on their sense of assignment
081181 - and scope.
081182 -
081183 - Develop scope consultants 120
081184 -
081185 - Review writings from consultants
081186 - Interview consultants; subconsultants
081187 - Discuss with KH QM and PM
081188 - Report areas of vagueness and recommend solutions
081189 - Follow up and finalize adequate language
081190 -
081191 - Project Launch Meeting, KH project executives 8
081192 -
081193 - "Major Meetings" require time to review
081194 - record, prepare agenda, contact players in
081195 - advance of meeting to ensure key points are
081196 - understood and what conflicts exist. Do the
081197 - meeting. Writing it up and linking to prior
081198 - events and external sources to discover any
081199 - conflicts; contacting attendees for clarifications
081200 - on conflicts. Making distribution. Scheduling
081201 - follow up and doing follow up contacts
081202 -
081203 - This "collaboration" scope called out in
081204 - Denis' scope at ref SDS 1 line 553.
081205 -
081206 - Project Launch Meeting, KH project team 16
081207 -
081208 - Project Launch Meeting, KH & KH Consultants 32
081209 -
081210 - CPM Schedule 160
081211 - Budget 40
081212 -
081213 - Integrate Cost & Schedule
081214 -
081215 - Project Launch Meeting with Airport 24
081216 -
081217 - Airport PM & Admin requirements, e.g., claims 40
081218 -
081219 - Risk Analysis 40
081220 -
081221 - This is ongoing, as part of all of the above,
081222 - but there should be dedicated attention with
081223 - respect to staffing, KH procedures and insurance
081224 - and legal team support.
081225 -
081226 - ------
081227 - Total Project Launch...............772 772
081228 -
081229 - The objective is to have after 3 - 4 months the project design
081230 - "process" functioning, including the Communication and Quality
081231 - Management Program. The Welch hours of 772 are 4 - 5 months
081232 - which reflects continuing effort during actual design, an over
081233 - estimate of time, or need for more staff to meet completion
081234 - objectives.
081235 -
081236 -
081237 -
081238 - Design Hrs per Month
081239 -
081240 - Capture SDS record .. Welch 10 hours per week 40 *
081241 -
081242 - Concept
081243 -
081244 - Welch will not attend all design meetings. The KH people who
081245 - attend will maintain Architect Logs, and these Log notes will
081246 - be transcribed by KH and integrated into SDS by Welch, ref SDS
081247 - 1 line 283 and ref SDS 1 line 526 and ref SDS 1 line 588. Welch
081248 - will issue meeting notes as needed to clarify meaning.
081249 -
081250 - It is expected that after the first 3 - 4 months of project
081251 - launch activity, KH architects' notes will improve, so less
081252 - Welch time may be needed to clarify understandings.
081253 -
081254 - * It may turn out that we don't need this task at all. We will
081255 - just use the Architect's logs as a resource for tying
081256 - everything together for Major Meetings.
081257 -
081258 - Attend Major Meetings 3 per month at 24 72
081259 -
081260 - Maybe this can be reduced to 1 or 2 per month
081261 - depending upon the Project Procedures manual.
081262 -
081263 - CPM & Budget Status, Maintain 10
081264 -
081265 - Correspondence -
081266 -
081267 - Welch will provide correspondence support during project
081268 - launch, but once the project is up and running, routine
081269 - design correspondence should not require Welch support other
081270 - than for CPM & Budget issues.
081271 -
081272 - If something special develops, such as a scope change, change
081273 - order disputes, or claims, then additional Welch support would
081274 - be added based on the magnitude of that effort.
081275 -
081276 - ------
081277 - Say 12 months at....................122 1464
081278 -
081279 - * Note we may be able to eliminate the 40 hours per month
081280 - which would reduce the total to 82 hours. I recommend
081281 - budgeting for the higher value because my sense is there
081282 - will be a lot more unanticipated stuff that will expand
081283 - the "Attend Major Meetings" account.
081284 -
081285 -
081286 -
081287 - Project Ready for Bid HRS
081288 -
081289 - Review bid documents 320
081290 -
081291 - Develop claim procedures, notice provisions, RFIs
081292 -
081293 - This will be done with Airport, KH and counsel.
081294 -
081295 - Schedule and Cost review
081296 -
081297 - Contractor Requirements
081298 -
081299 - CPM
081300 -
081301 - Project Meetings
081302 -
081303 - Project Records, Communications
081304 -
081305 - Traceability procedures
081306 -
081307 - Design overview of major vendor off-site design and
081308 - fabrication performance.
081309 -
081310 - Risk Analysis
081311 -
081312 - KH - what is KH direct exposure
081313 -
081314 - Project Success - what can impair
081315 -
081316 - ------
081317 - Total Pre-Bid Review................320 320
081318 -
081319 -
081320 -
081321 - Construction Launch
081322 -
081323 - Project Launch Meeting 80
081324 -
081325 - Review CPM 80
081326 - ------
081327 - Total Construction Launch...........160 160
081328 -
081329 -
081330 -
081331 - Construction Hrs Per Month
081332 -
081333 - Capture SDS record .. Welch 10 hours per week 40 *
081334 -
081335 - Attend Major Meetings 1 per month at 24 24
081336 -
081337 - These two items cover "collaboration" per
081338 - ref SDS 1 line 553.
081339 -
081340 - CPM status, maintain 10
081341 -
081342 - Correspondence & Claims (this could be 60) 10
081343 -
081344 - If major claims arise, then they have to financed
081345 - as needed, or bought off.
081346 -
081347 - Pay Estimate 1 per month at 16 16
081348 -
081349 - Long Lead Materials Oversight 8
081350 - ------
081351 - Say 18 months @.....................108 = 1944
081352 -
081353 - * Note we may be able to eliminate the 40 hours per month
081354 - which would reduce the total to 68 hours. I recommend
081355 - budgeting for the higher value because my sense is there
081356 - will be a lot more unanticipated stuff that occurs with
081357 - other structures, contractors and agencies that will
081358 - expand the "Attend Major Meetings" account.
081359 -
081360 -
081361 - Commission Hrs Per Month
081362 -
081363 - This is primarily a claims and change order 160
081364 - negotiation effort that extends beyond
081365 - substantial completion. At least one month
081366 - full time should be allowed to resolve issues
081367 - or assemble them in a form that can be turned
081368 - over to dedicated claims consultants.
081369 -
081370 - ------
081371 - Total Commission....................160 160
081372 -
081373 -
081374 - Total hours preliminary estimate................................4,820
081375 -
081376 -
081377 - Using 160 Hrs/Month = 30 Months
081378 -
081379 -
081380 - ..
081381 - Risk Management Assessment
081382 -
081383 - It may be best to budget Communication Metrics full time for the
081384 - entire project duration, and hope that a third or half of it can be
081385 - saved under above scenarios. There appears to be an equally strong
081386 - likelihood that the above numbers could be higher, if significant
081387 - difficulty occurs dealing with outside agencies and related projects,
081388 - per ref SDS 1 1048, for design coordination, ref SDS 1 1360 and later
081389 - for construction. ref SDS 1 7403
081390 -
081391 - If things go well, this effort can be accomplished with half to a
081392 - third of these projected hours.
081393 -
081394 - If there are significant delays getting information from organizations
081395 - outside the project team, if the information is of poor quality, if
081396 - the contractor underbids and seeks to make up the difference in
081397 - claims, if bad weather impacts performance, if latent conditions are
081398 - encountered, if a major vendor delays the work, then impacts can
081399 - snowball into difficulties that could easily increase the Welch
081400 - effort.
081401 -
081402 - [See follow up at ref SDS 4 line 72 and at ref SDS 5 line 75.]
081403 -
081404 -
081405 -
0815 -