THE WELCH COMPANY
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S U M M A R Y


DIARY: September 10, 1997 12:34 PM Wednesday; Rod Welch

Research error rate in communications, Carolyn Cave, Vanderbilt Univ.

1...Summary/Objective
2...Research Prospects

ACTION ITEMS.................. Click here to comment!

1...will expedite her review. I do not include this record, but will send
2...Would Carolyn be interested in the study considered by Santa Clara

CONTACTS 

SUBJECTS
Continual Learning
Time Impact on Learning/Knowledge
Brain Memory Learning
Knowledge Fragile Align Communications for
Fragility of Knowledge, Fades
Remembering (Linked Records - Traceability,

1608 -    ..
1609 - Summary/Objective
1610 -
161001 - Followed up work at ref SDS 9 line 78, ref SDS 2 line 201.
161002 -
161003 - Contacted Carolyn Cave at Vanderbilt.  She is unaware of research on
161004 - the impact of time on information from business communications. She
161005 - seemed to feel there is a comparable window of vulnerability for
161006 - memory loss by adults, as reported in the study on children learning,
161007 - in the August issue of Science.  She indicates memory loss in adults
161008 - has been well established, and so is no longer being studied.
161009 - ..
161010 - Submitted ref DIT 1 line 30 transmitting an edited version of
161011 - the NWO paper, ref OF 2 line 10.  Since Carolyn has limited time, this
161012 - will expedite her review.  I do not include this record, but will send
161013 - it later if she responds.
161014 -
161015 -    In that case, I will submit the notes of the meeting with the
161016 -    University of Santa Clara.
161017 -
161018 -
161019 -
1611 -
1612 -
1613 - Progress
1614 -
161401 - Research Prospects
161402 -
161403 - Followed up work at ref SDS 9 line 147.
161404 -
161405 - The following sources are listed in the article:
161406 -
161407 -     Dr. Henry H. Holcomb
161408 -     Psychiatrist
161409 -     Johns Hopkins University
161410 -
161411 -     Studying how people remember ref OF 6 line 15.
161412 -
161413 - Could not reach Henry.  Called information in NY and got a number for
161414 - Johns Hopkins.  That number gave an 800 number.  That number gave
161415 - another 800 and it said there is no Henry Holcomb.
161416 -
161417 -
161418 - Researched the Web for
161419 -
161420 -     Dr. Carolyn B. Cave                     615 343 0349
161421 -     Psychologist and Learning Researcher
161422 -     Vanderbilt University
161423 -     Nashville TN 37203
161424 -     (615) 322-8141 (phone)
161425 -
161426 -     Studying how people remember ref OF 6 line 40.
161427 -
161428 - Carolyn is not listed among faculty in the psychology department.
161429 -
161430 - Got a phone number and called the University.  They gave her number.
161431 -
161432 -
161433 -
1615 -
1616 -
1617 - 1258 called Carolyn Cave          615 343 0349
1618 -
161801 - Carolyn said she did not participate in preparing the article that
161802 - appears in the August issue of Science.  She was called by AP for an
161803 - opinion on the findings reported in the study, and so is cited in AP's
161804 - article for that reason.  Carolyn referred me to Henry Holcomb for a
161805 - discussion of his article in Science.
161806 -
161807 - She said her field is cognitive science.
161808 -
161809 - Carolyn is not familiar with Tom Landauer at the University of
161810 - Colorado in Boulder, CO, nor with his paper:
161811 -
161812 -      A Solution to Plato's Problem: The Latent Semantic Analysis
161813 -      Theory of Acquisition, Induction, and Representation of Knowledge
161814 -
161815 - I did not mention the LSA Web site, which Carolyn might like to
161816 - examine.
161817 -
161818 - I explained my interest to find research on the relation between time
161819 - and information from business meetings, calls, email and the general
161820 - "Information Highway" environment, that results in people being
161821 - unaware they are commingling information from disparate events and
161822 - sources, and that alignment of understandings, i.e., knowledge, slips
161823 - away rapidly, if not captured or reinforced by repetition.
161824 -
161825 - I noted that while this seems self-evident in the abstract, adults
161826 - deny they need help from "feedback" metrics, and feel threatened by
161827 - the prospect of capturing understandings for review.  Denial arises
161828 - because the impact of knowledge erosion is deferred and "buffered" by
161829 - the mind to avoid the trauma of constant error, and because the cost
161830 - is often paid by others.  It becomes an accepted part of daily problem
161831 - solving, called "Murphy's Law."
161832 -
161833 - I mentioned my sense about Landauer's theory of "meaning drift" as a
161834 - function of receiving new information, ref SDS 5 line 422.  His LSA
161835 - study indicates each word the mind encounters impacts the "meaning" of
161836 - prior words.
161837 -
161838 - Landauer's "meaning drift" suggests that larger chunks of information
161839 - in sentences, paragraphs and so on, are similarly impacted.  At any
161840 - moment "common sense" or the obvious "no brainer" solution, is
161841 - different from what it will be for the same mind at another time,
161842 - because the brain is merely looking for a consistent "story" or
161843 - picture, based on whatever it assembles.  Once that state is achieved,
161844 - it moves on, particularly when time is short.  So attending a lot of
161845 - meetings, making calls, sending/receiving a lot of email, creates a
161846 - potential for commingling and oversight.
161847 -
161848 - We considered that people recall different understandings from common
161849 - events and their notes show conflicting views about what transpired.
161850 -
161851 - I cited my description of this condition that...
161852 -
161853 -                    Truth is a moving target
161854 -
161855 -    .., ref SDS 5 line 377. resulting in business being conducted by a
161856 -    process of "guess and gossip" because there is not enough time for
161857 -    the mind to absorb and correctly process the constant barrage of
161858 -    information it receives.  Each mind is a jumble of mistakes, most
161859 -    of which are buffered from the conscious mind.
161860 -
161861 - I asked if these conditions reflect the correlation between time and
161862 - information on learning reported in the AP article? ref SDS 9 line
161863 - 136.
161864 -
161865 - Carolyn seemed to indicate her view that these are related phenomena.
161866 - She noted that time is an important factor in remembering.
161867 -
161868 - Carolyn is unaware of specific research I asked Tom Landauer about on
161869 - rates of error in meetings, ref SDS 8 line 116.  The letter issued on
161870 - 970731 at ref SDS 7 line 101, also explains scope of a study on this
161871 - matter.
161872 -
161873 - I asked about studies on the effect of writing things down as an aid
161874 - to remember?  I did not ask about the effect of increasing the ratio
161875 - of preparation time to time communicating on the ability to remember.
161876 -
161877 - Carolyn said there was considerable attention given to human memory in
161878 - the 60s, and that work done in prior periods makes this matter well
161879 - settled with respect to the fragility of human memory.  As a result,
161880 - there is not any work being done on my area of interest now.
161881 -
161882 - She said a book was written by ...Nesser in in mid-late 70s.
161883 -
161884 -                       Memory Observed
161885 -
161886 -     This book chronicles conflicts in John Dean's memory, as an
161887 -     example of the general problem.  It was topical because of his
161888 -     testimony in the Watergate hearings.
161889 -
161890 - I noted the conflict between academic interest and mounting pressure
161891 - in the larger community from continual growth in information that
161892 - floods the mind.  Henry Kissinger, Robert MacNamera, Goerge Shultz
161893 - have commented on the "Alice in Wonderland" environment of decision
161894 - making that results in error, delay, loss, litigation, failure and
161895 - conflict.
161896 -
161897 - Yet, ignorance of the cause, combined with fear of inadequacy, hubris,
161898 - and isolation due to politics and deferred impacts, cause denial of
161899 - this problem of meaning drift under the time/information continuum.
161900 -
161901 - I mentioned the paper "Turning Straw into Gold," that cites the
161902 - opportunity for improved performance by adding "intelligence" to
161903 - convert information into knowledge.
161904 -
161905 - Carolyn echoed Dr. Landauer's admonition against citing pop-psychology
161906 - short-hand that people use only 2% of mental capacity.  What about a
161907 - formulation that people only capture and align 2%, due to the
161908 - limitations of time, and if a way could be found to increase this it
161909 - could have a significant impact on performance by reducing "meaning
161910 - drift"?  Have any studies been done on this?
161911 -
161912 - She seemed to agree that improving application of human cognition
161913 - presents a big opportunity.
161914 -
161915 - I asked if I could submit the paper on the New World Order...
161916 -
161917 - Carolyn said she may not be able to look at it for awhile due to the
161918 - press of other matters.
161919 -
161920 -
161921 -                 cavecb@ctrvax.vanberbilt.edu
161922 -
161923 -
161924 - Would Carolyn be interested in the study considered by Santa Clara
161925 - University, ref SDS 1 line 202.
161926 -
161927 -
161928 -
161929 -
161930 -
161931 -
161932 -
1620 -