THE WELCH COMPANY
440 Davis Court #1602
San Francisco, CA 94111-2496
415 781 5700
rodwelch@pacbell.net


S U M M A R Y


DIARY: July 27, 1997 00:14 AM Sunday; Rod Welch

Received response from Paul on researching errors in communications.

1...Summary/Objective
2...What is a Metric for Communications?
......How can adding a metric to communications help discover errors
3...Management Can be Proactive Adding Metrics to Communication
4...The "new world order" is more meetings, calls and email.
5...Good Management Solves Communication Errors, Information Entropy
...Question - Where Do these "Good Managers" Work?
6...Thus, Communication Metrics empowers managers to apply good management
7...Truth is a Moving Target on the Information Highway
8...Stanford Uses Multimedia tools for meetings, e.g., Proshare
9...Information Overload Overwhelms Human Span of Attention at All Levels


..............
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CONTACTS 
0201 - Stanford Const Eng Mngmnt                                                                                                                                          O-00000232 0207
020101 - Mr. Paul Teicholz; Integrated Facilities Program
020102 - Construction Engineering & Management Program

SUBJECTS
Meetings, Communications
Executive Mindset
Conventional Management Practices, Action Items
Good Management Discovers Mistakes Managers
What's a Metric?
Action Items

1208 -
1208 -    ..
1209 - Summary/Objective
1210 -
121001 - Follow up ref SDS 21 0000, ref SDS 19 0000.
121002 -
121003 - Paul raises important questions about Communiction Metrics theory. He
121004 - offers a listing of good management practices and explains advances at
121005 - Stanford using multi-media technology to aid communication.  He does
121006 - not offer any suggestions on obtaining studies or other support for
121007 - calculating the impact on management effectiveness of increased
121008 - communications, which was requested in my letters to Ray and to Paul,
121009 - and which Paul seemed to recognize in our meeting with Haresh Shah on
121010 - 900703.
121011 -
121012 -     [See follow up responding on 970731, ref SDS 29 0000.]
121013 -
121014 -
121016 -  ..
1211 -
1212 -
1213 - Progress
1214 -
121401 - Received ref DRT 1 line 30 from Paul indicating awareness of entropic
121402 - forces acting on management communications.  He questions the premise
121403 - of Communication Metrics as set out in my letter ref DIP 2 line 63.
121404 -
121406 -  ..
121407 - What is a Metric for Communications?
121408 -
121409 - Paul asks at ref DRT 1 line 43.
121410 -
121411 -      How can adding a metric to communications help discover errors
121412 -      and correct them?  And why would this allow managers [to adapt]
121413 -      to a "new world order"?
121414 -
121415 - Analysis of this quiestion is set out in the following papers...
121416 -
121417 -          POIMS, the Art of Automated Management for the 21st Century,
121418 -          ref OF 1 line 338.
121420 -           ..
121421 -          New World Order Needs Old Time Religion, ref OF 2 line 365.
121422 -          ..
121423 -          Documents, Dialog and Human Memory, a Legal Perspective
121424 -          (A new managing concept of "Concurrent Discovery"),
121425 -          ref OF 3 line 235.
121427 -           ..
121428 -          Obstacles to Leadership, the Executive Mindset
121429 -          (Reengineering to Win in a Global Economy), ref OF 4 line
121430 -          724.
121432 -  ..
121433 - The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers issued a report on 970328 entitled:
121434 -
121435 -                       "Communication Metrics"
121436 -
121437 -     ...that explains this new management science, ref DRP 4 line 118,
121438 -     received at ref SDS 20 line 169.
121440 -  ..
121441 - Matters of human cognition are difficult to grasp, absent experience
121442 - with the methodology to provide a foundation for comparison with
121443 - conventional methods.  We have to build faith and provide support so
121444 - that people will try new methods based on favorable results reported
121445 - by credible sources, and then use the new methods long enough to gain
121446 - sufficient experience to overcome initial ignorance, fear and denial.
121447 - ..
121448 - George Gilder explains this challenge in connection with VLSI
121449 - chip design formulated at Xerox research center in 1976, 1977.  He
121450 - quotes Lynn Conway on p. 188 of his book, "Microcosm," reflecting on
121451 - the challenge to get executives to invest the time needed to grasp a
121452 - new idea:
121453 -
121454 -     "How can you take methods that are new, methods that are not in
121455 -     common use and therefore perhaps considered unsound methods, and
121456 -     turn them into sound methods?"
121457 -
121458 -     "I was very aware of the difficulty of bringing forth a new system
121459 -     of knowledge by just publishing bits and pieces of it among
121460 -     traditional work and then waiting until after it has all evolved
121461 -     and somone writes a book about it."
121462 -
121463 -      .., ref SDS 14 line 276.  Gilder further writes that Intel
121464 -      produced the microprocessor with great resistance from senior
121465 -      executives, ref SDS 14 line 174, and at ref SDS 10 line 639, who
121466 -      now are hailed as visionaries.
121467 - ..
121468 - One reason it is difficult to understand "metrics" for
121469 - communication is that traditional metrics are reactive. We do some
121470 - work, measure the results, then institute a program to adjust.
121471 -
121472 -
121474 -  ..
121475 - Management Can be Proactive Adding Metrics to Communication
121476 -
121477 - Communication Metrics is reactive also. But, since it is performed at
121478 - a low level of detail, and is applied to communication which is a
121479 - predicate to physical work, it has the effect of being proactive
121480 - because errors in cognition that are discovered can be adjusted before
121481 - physical work is performed, so that extra cost and delay of re-work
121482 - are avoided.  Thus, in relation to traditional cost and schedule
121483 - control, Communication Metrics is proactive.
121485 -  ..
121486 - Having in mind the report from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers that
121487 - says it takes experience to understand how adding "metrics" to
121488 - communications enables people to discover and correct mistakes, ref
121489 - DRP 4 line 174, received at ref SDS 20 line 168, here is another shot
121490 - at explaining the theory.
121492 -  ..
121494 -  ..
121495 - The "new world order" is more meetings, calls and email.
121496 -
121497 - Communication Metrics holds that mistakes cause re-work, extra cost
121498 - and delay, and arise from errors in communication due to innate
121499 - disconnects in the human mind commonly described as "meaning," also,
121500 - "remembering" and "understanding."  "Meaning" varies as a function of
121501 - the amount of information processed.  More information from meetings,
121502 - calls, documents and email overwhelms managers like a tennis player
121503 - trying to hit more than one ball at a time, except confusion in the
121504 - mind is hidden, until it blows up days, weeks, years later.  These
121505 - mistakes are attributed to "Murphy's Law" and are reflected in common
121506 - business metrics like cost and schedule reports, accounting financial
121507 - statements, stock prices, recessions, downsizing and reengineering.
121508 - If, however, we routinely add a "metric" using special technology to
121509 - compare communication with prior events and sources, then we discover
121510 - variances in meaning that impact future performance (time, cost and
121511 - quality).  This discovery permits making corrections each day to build
121512 - and maintain shared meaning so conduct is aligned with project
121513 - requirements.  Such proactive metrics make reactive metrics in cost
121514 - and schedule control, financial statements, stock prices, etc., look
121515 - better.
121516 -
121517 -
121519 -  ..
121520 - Good Management Solves Communication Errors, Information Entropy
121521 -
121522 - Paul suggests the following ways to deal with communication errors, so
121523 - that the inevitable pull of entropy can be avoided:
121524 -
121525 -   •  Delegation of details,
121526 -   •  Check lists of actions for each member of a team
121527 -   •  Team working arrangements that ensure alignment of goals and work
121528 -      processes, etc.
121529 -   •  Last task in meeting is to identify action items,
121530 -   •  Who will do them,
121531 -   •  When they need to be completed,
121532 -   •  Who needs to be informed, and
121533 -   •  When the next meeting will take place.
121534 -   •  This keeps a team on track and goal oriented.
121535 - ..
121536 - Paul points out that a good manager learns how to do this and to
121537 - keep the team motivated, ref DRT 1 line 54.
121538 -
121540 -    ..
121541 -   Question - Where Do these "Good Managers" Work?
121542 -
121543 -   Setting out good management practices does not empower consistent
121544 -   application in the new world order of the Information Highway.
121545 -
121546 -       See Stephen Covey
121547 -
121548 -           ...need better personal work habits, reported on 921205.
121549 -           ref SDS 2 0613
121551 -            ..
121552 -           Peter Drucker
121553 -
121554 -           ...people have given up on communication, reported on
121555 -           931130. ref SDS 4 3851
121557 -            ..
121558 -           Cal Tech Seminar publication
121559 -
121560 -           ...effective communications through discussion is difficult
121561 -           to achieve, because words have different meanings for
121562 -           different context, depending upon the experience of those
121563 -           involved. ref SDS 5 2074
121565 -    ..
121566 -   Associated Press reports on 960204 a study showing managers waste
121567 -   70% of the day in meetings because...
121568 -
121569 -      •  Purpose unclear
121570 -      •  Participants unprepared
121571 -      •  Key people absent or come late and miss important stuff.
121572 -      •  Key people leave early to go to another meeting
121573 -      •  Conversation veers off course.
121574 -      •  Participants don't discuss issues, they argue about who said
121575 -         what at the last meeting, or don't contribute.
121576 -      •  Lack of follow up
121577 -
121578 -      ...people cannot read their notes 2 days later, ref SDS 8 line
121579 -      113.
121580 -   ..
121581 -   U.S. Air Force Institute of Technology paper reports
121582 -   information entropy is endemic to major projects, a function to size
121583 -   and time, ref SDS 21 line 275.
121585 -    ..
121586 -   David Vannier says "good managers" at Intel inevitably become
121587 -   disconnected from project objectives and this causes significant
121588 -   effort, time, cost, emotional trauma to restore alignment, ref SDS
121589 -   17 line 357.  Dave reports getting 70 email a day and that email is
121590 -   least productive business system at Intel, ref SDS 6 line 995.
121592 -    ..
121593 -   Lou Kummerer reports "empowerment" at Intel hampers consistent use
121594 -   of good management practices, ref SDS 26 line 277.
121596 -    ..
121597 -   General Hank Hatch reports managers at Fluor Daniel overwhelmed by
121598 -   flood of daily communications, ref SDS 9 line 729.
121599 -   ..
121600 -   Bill DeHart says managers at PG&E, Sprint, Bechtal are
121601 -   overwhelmed by daily communications, ref SDS 21 line 81.
121603 -    ..
121604 -   Tom Keesling reports managers at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
121605 -   have other meetings to attend or get tired and want to go home
121606 -   before the complete list of effective communication steps can be
121607 -   used by a good manager, ref SDS 17 line 147.
121608 -
121610 -  ..
121612 -  ..
121613 - Thus, Communication Metrics empowers managers to apply good management
121614 - practices consistently, i.e., solve the time/information dilemma so
121615 - leadership is effective.
121616 -
121617 -      An automobile leverages our muscles to carry more groceries
121618 -      farther and faster, the telephone leverages our voice to speak
121619 -      farther, television and email leverage distribution of writing
121620 -      and images.
121622 -       ..
121623 -      Adding "metrics" to communication leverages our underlying
121624 -      ability to think and remember accurately by creating the
121625 -      connections that convert information into a more useful medium
121626 -      called "knowledge."
121627 -
121628 -
121630 -  ..
121631 - Truth is a Moving Target on the Information Highway
121632 -
121633 - Paul recognizes the error in attributing management failures to
121634 - subordinates who do not tell the truth, ref DRT 1 line 62.
121635 -
121636 - This is the point of Communication Metrics, per paper on Obstacles to
121637 - Leadership, ref SDS 13 line 241.  It came from Joel Koppleman's
121638 - contention that his problems at Primavera arose from project managers
121639 - who did not tell the truth, ref SDS 6 line 384.  Seems like there
121640 - should be a better explanation and a better solution.  Communication
121641 - Metrics maintains that if "meaning" is in constant flux in the human
121642 - mind, then executives don't know the truth any better than anyone else
121643 - in the age of the Information Highway.  The challenge is empowering
121644 - people to "know" the truth, so it can be applied before mistakes are
121645 - made or opportunity is lost.  This results in a happier truth to tell.
121646 -
121647 -
121648 -
121649 -
1217 -

SUBJECTS
Internet, Multi-media for Meetings
Computers Believed to Make Managers More Productive
Management Productivity Reduced by Technology
Computers Reduce Management Focus on Analysis Because Attracted by Le
Technology Dilemma Unintended Consequences Information Overload

1807 -
180801 -  ..
180802 - Stanford Uses Multimedia tools for meetings, e.g., Proshare
180803 - Information Overload Overwhelms Human Span of Attention at All Levels
180804 -
180805 - Paul explains technology being tried at Stanford to improve
180806 - communication effectiveness.  He expects the Internet will make these
180807 - methods available to everyone. ref DRT 1 line 56.
180808 -
180809 - The viability of relying on the Internet as presently applied to
180810 - improve communication seems to conflict with the following record.
180811 -
180812 -     [On 980613 articles in "Today's Engineer" cite evidence showing
180813 -     more is needed for communication than faster information on the
180814 -     Internet. ref SDS 30 3499]
180816 -      ..
180817 -     [On 980813 notified Paul about Communication Metrics web site that
180818 -     makes Internet an assett rather than a liability. ref SDS 31 0000]
180819 - ..
180820 - Henry Kissinger reports in his book "Diplomacy" at ref SDS 6
180821 - line 189.
180822 -
180823 -     "The emerging international system is far more complex than any
180824 -     previously encountered by American diplomacy. Foreign policy has
180825 -     to be conducted by a political system that emphasizes the
180826 -     immediate and provides few incentives for the long range. Its
180827 -     leaders are obliged to deal with constituencies that tend to
180828 -     receive their information via visual images.  All this puts a
180829 -     premium on emotion and on the mood of the moment at a time that
180830 -     demands rethinking of priorities and an analysis of capabilities."
180831 -     p. 833-834,
180833 -  ..
180835 -  ..
180836 - Robert MacNamera points out at ref SDS 7 line 245, in explaining his
180837 - book "In Retrospect"
180838 -
180839 -     Leadership must strive to discover the starkness of conflicts at a
180840 -     time when changing course is viable.  However, in the modern era
180841 -     events move too fast to permit adequate analysis.
180843 -  ..
180844 - Johanna Neuman's book "Lights, Camera, War" says at ref SDS 11 line
180845 - 62.
180846 -
180847 -     Technology has always been a burden, calling on leaders in every
180848 -     era to change their habits, to adjust to a new speed or a new
180849 -     imperative, to hurry their decisions and address a larger
180850 -     audience. (p. 24)
180851 - ..
180852 - George Shultz in an address to the Washington Press Club
180853 - broadcast by CSPAN on 970401, per ref SDS 19 line 86, remarked:
180854 -
180855 -     The looming age of the Information Highway increases the need for
180856 -     analysis and careful reporting to overcome risks of information
180857 -     that flows too fast for leaders to make effective decisions.
180859 -  ..
180860 - Paul Teicholz observed during a meeting at Stanford with Haresh Shah
180861 - and Rod Welch on 900703, ref SDS 1 line 124.
180862 -
180863 -     Paul commented that the phrase "deliberative analysis" [used by
180864 -     Welch to explain purpose of the SDS program] is not particularly
180865 -     insightful or new.  He calls it "systematic analysis;" and, he
180866 -     feels managers do not do enough of it due to the frequency and
180867 -     volume of issues they face.
180868 -
180869 - ..
180870 - This record suggests that tools to support timely analysis may
180871 - be needed to supplement other methods and technology, as a way to make
180872 - communications effective in the new world order of the Information
180873 - Highway.
180875 -  ..
180876 - Paul's point about managers not having enough time relates to the
180877 - study/spreadsheet I want to prepare showing the rate of errors that
180878 - occur in communications, as set out in letter to Ray Levitt on 970723,
180879 - ref DIP 1 line 36, and to Paul on 970724, ref DIP 2 line 37.
180880 -
180881 -
180882 -
180883 -
1809 -
Distribution. . . . See "CONTACTS"