THE WELCH COMPANY
440 Davis Court #1602
San Francisco, CA 94111-2496
415 781 5700



November 12, 2000

03 00050 61 00111201



Mr. Roy Roybuck
roy_roebuck@trantech-inc.com
TranTech, Inc.
4900 Seminary Road, Suite 215
Alexandria, VA 22311-1811

Subject:   Congratulations on New Assignment

Dear Roy,

Thanks for the letter announcing your new job. TranTech looks like a good fit for your interest in knowledge management, following up efforts last year to gain support from NSF.

I am soldiering on with Communication Metrics. A few weeks ago Doug Engelbart commented favorably on SDS, and SRI's Pat Lincoln, also, recognized SDS is headed in the right direction. Cliff Joslyn at Los Alamos National Lab had some nice things to say after a demonstration. Still, there are no actual customers for KM. Some folks are willing to put up a little money for a KM project; but, nobody wants to perform knowledge management, because favorable market dynamics have not yet settled. We have a good report from the Corps of Engineers, but we need to build on that base of experience, through pilot testing, to increase confidence in this new capability.

I am pretty sure the challenge for KM is just the normal cultural drag that every innovation encounters. A recent letter to SRI proposed research to break out of the current innovation loop. Thucydides, Gutenberg, Diderot, Graham,..., they all had to get through, what Andy Grove calls the valley of death, trying to nudge culture in a different direction.

Good luck in your new assignment. When you get settled, let me know how things are going.

Sincerely,

THE WELCH COMPANY



Rod Welch
rowelch@attglobal.net