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S U M M A R Y


DIARY: July 9, 1997 07:03 AM Wednesday; Rod Welch

Articles on risk management leadership, intelligence, lessons learned.

1...Summary/Objective
2...Decision Making and Risk Management
3...Risk Management Definition
4...Risk Management is Proactive Discovery of Factors Impact Success
5...Risk Assessent, Quantification
6...Risk Handling - Avoidance, Acceptance, Control, Sharing
7...Virtual Corporate Ventures Comprise "New" Environment
.....New World Order
8...Rigid Corporate Structures Replaced by Flatter, Flexible Models
9...Collaborating Yields Shared Learning, Innovation


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CONTACTS 

SUBJECTS
Cost/Benefit of Better Communications
Market Fears Being First to Use New Methods
Communication Manager Fewer People More
Cost Benefit - Increase Usefulness, Reduce
Level of Effort, Calculate Cost Benefit
Risk Management, Contingency Analysis, Value at Risk
Risk Management Decision Support Lessons
Virtual Corporation
Proactive Management Discovers Problems

1411 -
1411 -    ..
1412 - Summary/Objective
1413 -
141301 - Follow up ref SDS 1 0000, ref SDS 12 0000.
141302 -
141303 - The article defines risk management as proactive discovery of factors
141304 - that impact success.  Importance of history, experience and lessons
141305 - learned to risk management.  Suggests collaboration produces win-win
141306 - project management.
141307 -
141308 -
141310 -  ..
1414 -
1415 -
1416 - Progress
1417 -
141701 - Decision Making and Risk Management
141702 -
141703 - This paper is written by John Tuman, who wrote an earlier article on
141704 - the need to re-engineer project management, ref SDS 2 line 285.
141705 -
141706 - The goal of this paper is to present decision-making and risk
141707 - management processes, ref OF 8 line 49.
141708 -
141710 -  ..
141711 - Risk Management Definition
141712 -
141713 - Author defines risk as the probability of encountering an event or
141714 - occurrence that adversely affects project objectives.  This is similar
141715 - to definition in old PMBOK, ref OF 4 line 122, reviewed at ref SDS 9
141716 - line 130.
141718 -  ..
141719 - Risk can be direct, due to late equipment deliveries, test failures,
141720 - or weather delays, or risk can be indirect, the result of personnel
141721 - conflicts, divergent business interests, cultural misalignment, etc.
141722 - In either case, project success is jeopardized. ref OF 8 line 105,
141723 - which reflects elements of PMBOK list, ref OF 4 line 229.
141725 -  ..
141726 - More detailed list of specific risk catagories is at ref OF 8 line
141727 - 162.
141729 -  ..
141730 - Risk Management is Proactive Discovery of Factors Impact Success
141731 -
141732 - This point is made at ref OF 8 line 141, and it creates a direct
141733 - correlation with the purpose of Communication Metrics to develop
141734 - business intelligence, as set out in the Corps of Engineers' report,
141735 - ref DRP 1 line 123, and at ref DRP 1 line 574, issued at ref SDS 7
141736 - line 204, per Steve Rule's objective for Turner, ref SDS 6 line 96.
141737 - The scope of services for Communication Metrics describes it as a risk
141738 - management process, ref OF 12 line 90.
141739 -
141741 -  ..
141742 - Risk Assessent, Quantification
141743 -
141744 - Techniques are described as reviewing history of past projects,
141745 - lessons learned, ref OF 8 line 202, which is directly supported by
141746 - Communication Metrics, per Corps of Engineers report, ref DRP 1 line
141747 - 172.
141749 -  ..
141750 - Talk to "experts" and experienced project managers.  A Communication
141751 - Manager is an experienced expert.
141753 -  ..
141754 - Estimate the likelihood of something going wrong, and estimate the
141755 - impact if something should go wrong.  Try to identify all the high
141756 - probability/high impact items, and the areas of high uncertainty, ref
141757 - OF 8 line 215, reflecting the new PMBOK per ref OF 14 line 293.
141758 -
141760 -  ..
141761 - Risk Handling - Avoidance, Acceptance, Control, Sharing
141762 -
141763 -
141764 -     Avoidance pays cost to eliminate unknowns. ref OF 8 line 229
141765 -
141766 -     Acceptance if probable likelhood and/or impact are low, ref OF 8
141767 -     line 237
141769 -      ..
141770 -     Control mitigates occurance and impact, ref OF 8 line 245, which
141771 -     is the role of Communication Metrics.
141773 -      ..
141774 -     Sharing risk and costs of mitigation and impacts to others, ref OF
141775 -     8 line 250.
141776 -
141777 -        Author advocates risk sharing to spread risk of enterprise by
141778 -        virtual undertakings, ref OF 8 line 257.
141779 -
141780 -        This is appropriate for a contractor or Construction Manager
141781 -        and an owner, since the Communication Metrics process
141782 -        identifies and mitigates risks for all parties.
141783 -
141784 -
141786 -  ..
141787 - Virtual Corporate Ventures Comprise "New" Environment
141788 -
141789 - Author cites practices of separate businesses teaming, using joint
141790 - ventures, networking, and partnering relationships that comprise
141791 - "virtual" corporation.  He says these arrangements provides strengths
141792 - for product development, and, also, constitute a new "environment"
141793 - that presents particular challenges to project managers, ref OF 8 line
141794 - 18.
141795 -
141796 -     There is no explanation of any increased frequency over the past
141797 -     100 years for joint ventures, partnering, etc.
141798 -
141800 -      ..
141801 -     New World Order
141802 -
141803 -     The description of a new business envirnment, actually arises from
141804 -     an increase in the rate of human information transactions, that
141805 -     result in information entropy, described in the article at ref SDS
141806 -     12 line 263.
141808 -      ..
141809 -     Author says information technology has significantly increased top
141810 -     management's span of control and decision response time, ref OF 8
141811 -     line 77, and notes the power and flexibility of the virtual
141812 -     corporation brings with it new management complexities and risk
141813 -     because making alliances and consortiums work well across national
141814 -     and cultural lines is not easy. ref OF 8 line 86.  Managers have
141815 -     to:
141817 -              ..
141818 -          •  Integrate systems and procedures
141819 -          •  Mesh values, perceptions and interests
141820 -
141821 - ...per ref OF 8 line 93
141823 -  ..
141824 - Author says planning and controlling projects in a matrix organization
141825 - is complex, and it is more difficult for projects that cross
141826 - boundaries of multi-corporate structures.  He feels this requires a
141827 - new set of leadership skills - skills that not only motivate diverse
141828 - project participants to accomplish a common objective, but also build
141829 - a team that practices win-win risk management, ref OF 8 line 22.
141830 -
141831 -         Will we get a list of these new skills?
141833 -              ..
141834 -          •  Integrate systems and procedures
141835 -          •  Mesh values, perceptions and interests
141836 -
141837 - ...per ref OF 8 line 93
141838 -
141839 -     How is this different from 1975, 1875, 1275?
141841 -      ..
141842 -     Author says multi-organizational ventures are not new, ref OF 8
141843 -     line 63.  He says doing this on a global scale results in
141844 -     "virtual" enterprises. ref OF 8 line 71.  This is the "team
141845 -     without walls" idea advanced by Jaclyn Kostner in her article
141846 -     reviewed at ref SDS 3 line 320.
141847 -
141848 -
141850 -  ..
141851 - Rigid Corporate Structures Replaced by Flatter, Flexible Models
141852 -
141853 - Author writes that changing the organization chart can improve
141854 - productivity and improve competitiveness.  His call for flatter
141855 - structures, ref OF 8 line 59, reflects Operational Planning proposed
141856 - for the Corps of Engineers San Francisco District, ref SDS 8 line
141857 - 327.
141858 -
141859 -      [See paper by Intel, ref SDS 15 line 113.]
141860 -
141862 -  ..
141863 - Collaborating Yields Shared Learning, Innovation
141864 -
141865 - Author describes three management styles of controlling, delegating
141866 - and collaborative.  He says collaborative yields:
141867 -
141868 -       Goals accomplished by joint initiatives
141869 -       Innovation encouraged and applied
141870 -       Extensive shared learning
141871 -       Increased capabilities for all
141872 -
141873 -   ...these happy outcomes are set out at ref OF 8 line 383.  He does
141874 -   not indicate if the project is more successful.
141876 -    ..
141877 -   Author does not explain "collaboration," but he assures that
141878 -   "outstanding results become commonplace.
141879 -
141880 -
141881 -
141882 -
141883 -
1419 -