THE WELCH COMPANY
440 Davis Court #1602
San Francisco, CA 94111-2496
415 781 5700
rodwelch@pacbell.net


S U M M A R Y


DIARY: May 25, 1997 02:24 PM Sunday; Rod Welch

Articles on learning from failure; communication primary cause.

1...Summary/Objective
2...Define Success
3...Success Requires Political Dimension, as Well as Cost, Schedule...
4...Cost Failure
.............."To sell a program to Congress, you have to lie about it
5...Schedule Failure
6...Technical Performance Failure
........Degree of uniqueness should be considered in estimating risk of
....4...Communication Failures Cost $M; Everyone Knew; Let it Go
........Denial Not Just a River in Egypt
........Communication Manager
........Truth and Accountability, Psychologically Burdensome
........Project Office Supports Communication Manager


..............
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CONTACTS 

SUBJECTS
Remembering (Linked Records - Traceability,
Experience History Chrolology Diary
Case Studies, Diary record, Journal
Experience Risk Management, Intelligence
Risk Management Learning from Failure
Success, PM Define

2008 -
2008 -    ..
2009 - Summary/Objective
2010 -
201001 - Follow up ref SDS 20 0000, ref SDS 25 0000.
201002 -
201003 - Reviewed article that lists factors that cause project failure, but
201004 - does not offer any solutions, not even to keep a record for review of
201005 - "lessons learned."  Communication failure is major risk.  An example
201006 - is cited of a software project for test equipment that lost $10s of
201007 - millions of dollars due to failed communications. Overall, the article
201008 - does not correlate with the title, nor meet expectations drawn from
201009 - the magazine cover title. Author cites "over-optimistic" commitments,
201010 - as a cause of project failure to meet expectations, and that seems to
201011 - have occurred with this issue of PM Network.
201012 -
201013 -     [See follow up submitting review of Asilomar Conference last year,
201014 -     as a way to improve on project failure, ref SDS 23 line 69.]
201015 -
201017 -  ..
2011 -
2012 -
2013 - Progress
2014 -
201401 - There are two articles in the May issue of PM Network on experience
201402 - from failure to improve management.
201404 -  ..
201405 - Two other articles in the same issue suggest adding a Project Office
201406 - to the organization that can among other things be a "repository" for
201407 - experience, per record at ref SDS 21 4700.
201408 - ..
201409 - I am only going to review in this record the article by Bud
201410 - Baker. The title is:
201411 -
201412 -                     Great Expectations Turning Failure into
201413 -                     Success - and Vice Versa
201414 -
201416 -  ..
201417 - Define Success
201418 -
201419 - U.S. Highway System example of project that failed to meet original
201420 - requirements for cost and schedule, but has become a major success for
201421 - the nation, ref OF 1 line 26.
201422 -
201423 - This reflects that the underestimate of cost and schedule was greatly
201424 - exceeded by the underestimate of the benefits.
201425 -
201426 -    Highway system was "sold" as a way to speed recovery from a nuclear
201427 -    war, ref OF 1 line 47.
201429 -     ..
201430 -    [See meeting with Dave Vannier on 970603, it was recommended Intel
201431 -    develop clear criteria for success of his project, ref SDS 22 line
201432 -    203.]
201433 -
201434 -
201436 -  ..
201437 - Success Requires Political Dimension, as Well as Cost, Schedule...
201438 -
201439 - Baker says that limiting the definition of project success to client
201440 - assessment of cost, schedule and quality, is a narrow view. He
201441 - supports this by noting that taxpayers pay for the cost of failure in
201442 - government work, ref OF 1 line 53.
201443 -
201444 -     I do not grasp the correlation he is making here.
201446 -  ..
201447 - Success should be assessed on cost, schedule, technical performance,
201448 - and politics, ref OF 1 line 61 and ref OF 1 line 78.
201450 -  ..
201451 - He says a project can meet cost, schedule and technical performance,
201452 - yet fail because of changing political realities, ref OF 1 line 63. He
201453 - cites as an example the U.S. Air Force F-22 Advanced Tactical Fighter.
201454 - It is the most capable combat aircraft in history, and meets cost and
201455 - schedule objectives, yet it may never take to the skies, because the
201456 - threat it was designed to meet has left the field, ref OF 1 line 65.
201457 -     ..
201458 -     How useful is this analysis?  Wasn't the plane a success
201459 -     because it contributed to the enemy giving up?
201461 -      ..
201462 -     Survival is a stronger measure of success than cost and schedule,
201464 -  ..
201465 - Baker notes that high risks are easier to take when the cost of
201466 - failure is paid by others, ref OF 1 line 58.
201467 -
201468 -     A discussion on the difficulty estimating the cost of major
201469 -     weapons systems due to information entropy is at ref SDS 24 line
201470 -     277.
201472 -      ..
201473 -     The effect of unlimited funds and where the cost of failure is
201474 -     borne by those who do not make the actual decisions, is discussed
201475 -     in the meeting with Intel, ref SDS 26 line 348.
201476 -
201478 -  ..
201479 - Cost Failure
201480 -
201481 - Baker lists 6 causes, but no remedies to avoid future failures.
201482 -
201483 -    1.  Over optimism in cost, schedule. or technical areas will drive
201484 -        a project toward cost failure, ref OF 1 line 85.
201486 -         ..
201487 -        This reflects the problem of "buying the job" or simply making
201488 -        an estimate error.  If there is not enough money in the
201489 -        estimate to perform the work, the project will exceed the
201490 -        budget.
201492 -         ..
201493 -        Actually, Baker separates numerical error, as cause 3, and
201494 -        seems to using "optimism" to mean deliberate conveyance of
201495 -        information that is thought to be "optimistic".  He gives the
201496 -        following quote under the explanation of Technical Performance:
201497 -
201499 -               ..
201500 -              "To sell a program to Congress, you have to lie about it
201501 -              first." ref OF 1 line 201.
201502 -
201503 -              This reflects the opening example of the U.S. Highway
201504 -              system being "sold" to Congress as a national defense
201505 -              investment.
201507 -         ..
201508 -        Baker cites example setting a budget for aircraft procurement
201509 -        to gain funding approval, rather than to reflect actual cost
201510 -        based on the best information available, ref OF 1 line 90.
201512 -         ..
201513 -        Another example is the quantities for the Oakland Harbor
201514 -        project related at ref SDS 12 line 144, and at ref SDS 22 line
201515 -        186.
201516 -        ..
201517 -    2.  Underperformance in technical or schedule areas,
201518 -        ref OF 1 line 101.
201520 -         ..
201521 -        Science and technology not well enough settled to estimate cost
201522 -        of performance, is what this factor is really about.
201524 -         ..
201525 -    3.  Numerical error, ref OF 1 line 109
201527 -         ..
201528 -    4.  Change in funding profile, ref OF 1 line 116
201529 -
201530 -        This seems to relate to delay in funding or reduced funding
201531 -        that stretches out the work, and this can cause increases in
201532 -        the unit cost of production.
201534 -         ..
201535 -    5.  Scope creep......... ref OF 1 R263
201537 -         ..
201538 -        This can occur incrementally as an attempt to maintain good
201539 -        relations with a client.  Author offers a scenario described as
201540 -        organizational politics.
201542 -  ..
201543 - Morris described scope creep at Chips and Technologies on 911221.
201544 - ref SDS 3 6E5G
201546 -  ..
201547 - PM Network article continues...
201548 -
201549 -        Baker does not offer any suggestions about how to avoid such a
201550 -        problem.  The straight forward solution is use contract notice
201551 -        provisions to demand performance.  This causes hurt feelings
201552 -        and claims of not being a "team player."  Somebody has lunch
201553 -        with somebody, and a decision is made to bring in new players.
201555 -         ..
201556 -        Baker does not offer ideas on how to help stakeholders,
201557 -        including taxpayers, avoid the risk of expedient politics that
201558 -        suppresses accountability and leads to cost overruns.
201560 -         ..
201561 -    6.  Perfect is the enemy of good enough, ref OF 1 line 136
201562 -
201563 -
201565 -  ..
201566 - Schedule Failure
201567 -
201568 - Baker lists 5 causes, but no remedies to avoid future failures.
201569 -
201570 -    1.  Over-optimism, ref OF 1 line 151
201571 -
201572 -        Baker explains that when a schedule is made at the start of a
201573 -        project, relationships among all the project participants tend
201574 -        to be good, and promises can be easily made, in the knowledge
201575 -        that it may be years before those promises must be kept. ref OF
201576 -        1 line 162.
201578 -         ..
201579 -        This is "say anything" to get the order, not "over-optimism."
201580 -        The most charitable cast is that everyone is engaging in happy
201581 -        talk and hoping it will all turn out right, including the
201582 -        client, who is happy hear optimistic estimates.
201583 -        ..
201584 -    2.  Client appeasement, ref OF 1 line 166
201585 -
201586 -        This is really the same as cause 1.  The author's example
201587 -        reflects the pressure to be a team player by saying what the
201588 -        client wants to hear.
201590 -         ..
201591 -    3.  Scope creep, ref OF 1 line 180
201592 -    4.  Perfect is the enemy of good enough, ref OF 1 line 180
201593 -
201594 -        Author gives up and admits that the same things that drive
201595 -        cost, also drive schedule.
201597 -         ..
201598 -    5.  Resource limits, ref OF 1 line 185
201599 -
201600 -
201602 -  ..
201603 - Technical Performance Failure
201604 -
201605 - Baker lists 4 causes, but no remedies to avoid future failures, which
201606 - are essentially the same as for cost and schedule problems, except he
201607 - adds "communication."  It is unclear why the communication problem he
201608 - cites for technical performance, does not apply to cost and schedule
201609 - as well.
201610 -
201611 -    1.  Over-optimism, ref OF 1 line 200
201613 -         ..
201614 -    2.  Design error in math, ref OF 1 line 211
201615 -
201616 -        Since projects are unique undertakings, the likelihood of error
201617 -        is great. ref OF 1 line 207
201619 -  ..
201620 -
201621 -        Degree of uniqueness should be considered in estimating risk of
201622 -        meeting project requirements, based on Baker's formulation,
201623 -        although he does not make this suggestion.
201624 -
201625 -    3.  Business decisions to meet budget targets adversely impact
201626 -        design, ref OF 1 line 217
201627 -
201628 -
201629 -
201630 -
2017 -

SUBJECTS
Accountability Avoided, Turn Out the Lights
Communication Cost Schedule, More Important
Proactive Problem Discovery Feedback
Conflict Discover Before Mistakes are Made
Obstacles to Leadership, Ovecoming
Communication Largest Risk Most Time of
Facilitator, Needs Communication Metrics to
Aligning Communications to Maintain Shared
Cost/Benefit of Better Communications
Denial Communication Metrics Accountant

4312 -
431301 -         ..
431302 -    4.  Communication Failures Cost $M; Everyone Knew; Let it Go
431303 -
431304 -        Baker gives an example where poor communication caused a
431305 -        product that failed to meet requirements, costing tens of
431306 -        millions of dollars. ref OF 1 3385
431307 -
431308 -            [On 970829 book on management practice says communication
431309 -            most important factor of project success. ref SDS 28 6666]
431311 -             ..
431312 -            [On 981027 poor communication cost $30M. ref SDS 29 9152]
431314 -         ..
431315 -        Author notes people on the team knew of communication problems,
431316 -        but distrust and fear prevented disclosure in order to avoid
431317 -        being the bearers of bad news, ref OF 1 3387.  It reflects
431318 -        pervasive role of communication as most important ingredient of
431319 -        good management, per article by Richard Murphy in same issue of
431320 -        PM Network, ref SDS 21 8888, and also the report by U.S. Army
431321 -        Corps of Engineers on Communication Metrics. see ref DRP 1 3649
431323 -         ..
431324 -        Denial Not Just a River in Egypt
431325 -
431326 -        Another artricle in this issue of PM Network on page 29 cites
431327 -        strong emotional urge to deny problems by being a "team player"
431328 -        in order to avoid accountability, which is why an "Accounting
431329 -        Department" is needed to ensure metrics are applied that
431330 -        overcome denial of problems.  The article is not reviewed in
431331 -        the SDS record.  It reflects Corps of Engineers' report on
431332 -        Communication Metrics that denial of problems needs dedicated
431333 -        support to overcome. ref DRP 1 1612
431334 -
431336 -         ..
431337 -        Communication Manager
431338 -        Truth and Accountability, Psychologically Burdensome
431339 -
431340 -        This record reflects the psychological burden of "telling the
431341 -        truth" causing people to ignore problems, reported by the U.S.
431342 -        Army Corps of Engineers' report on Communication Metrics. see
431343 -        ref DRP 1 1614  The $10s of millions cost of failing to do so,
431344 -        similar to problems Joel Koppleman had on his Primavera
431345 -        project, ref SDS 6 4543, and Morris Jones reported, ref SDS 7
431346 -        5282, and on his Intel/Lockheed project, ref SDS 12 0896, may
431347 -        warrant using an independent Communication Manager to ensure
431348 -        timely business intelligence. in order to avoid calamity.
431350 -    ..
431351 -   [See article submitted on reviewing failure of PMI's Asilomar
431352 -   conference that supports idea of Communication Manager, ref SDS 23
431353 -   4940.]
431355 -         ..
431356 -        Project Office Supports Communication Manager
431357 -
431358 -        Experience on Broadwater, ref SDS 1 line 49, and the Oakland
431359 -        Harbor project, ref SDS 15 5002, where the bearer of bad news
431360 -        was removed from the project, may suggest that a Project Office
431361 -        proposed by two other articles in the May issue of PM Network,
431362 -        ref SDS 21 4700, could help an organization meet challenges of
431363 -        "Feel Good Management" by overcoming ignorance, fear and denial
431364 -        of "metrics."  Using Communication Metrics to proactively avoid
431365 -        problems that otherwise make accountability burdensome and
431366 -        fearful, would be an effective use of authority of a Project
431367 -        Office.
431368 -
431369 - ..
431370 - Bud Baker, the author, is a professor at Wright State
431371 - University.  He seems to have had a distinguished career in the
431372 - military as a pilot and later in procurement of major weapons systems,
431373 - ref OF 1 line 278.
431375 -  ..
431376 - I tried to contact him about reviewing the Corps of Engineers' report
431377 - on Communication Metrics, for a solution to the problems he cites.
431379 -  ..
431380 - Got a number for him on the Web at...
431381 -
431382 -                      937 873 3001
431383 -
431384 -        ...got message it is disconnected
431385 -
431386 -
431387 -
431388 -
431389 -
4314 -