THE WELCH COMPANY
440 Davis Court #1602
San Francisco, CA 94111-2496
415 781 5700


S U M M A R Y


DIARY: December 28, 1993 02:58 PM Tuesday; Rod Welch

Scanned various PMI magazine articles on SDS applications.

1...Summary/Objective
2...SDS Most Advanced Automated Support
3...for Human Thought
4...Neural Networks Basic Tools
5...Computers Can "Learn"
....Comment
6...Project Management Methods
7...Need to Convert Information into Knowledge
8...WBS & CPM Development Scenarios
9...Through Reporting


..............
Click here to comment!

CONTACTS 

SUBJECTS
SDS Marketing, Application to market
Project Planning & Oversight
Project Management, Methods, Procedures

0505 -    ..
0506 - Summary/Objective
0507 -
050701 - Scanned ref OF 3 line 12 is mainly a training aid for applying CPM to
050702 - projects that involve tasks whose rate of completion can be improved
050703 - by crew experience.  It discusses the effect of "learning curves" on
050704 - the adequacy of CPM schedules.
050705 -
050706 - The correlation to SDS is remote, except that SDS provides a data base
050707 - that permits executives and managers to learn from their experience.
050708 - The difference is that this article mainly treats repetitive manual
050709 - operations whose performance can be greatly improved as a result of
050710 - learning the manual steps, see ref OF 3 line 56.
050711 -
050712 -
050713 - Purpose of CPM is explained at ref OF 3 line 14, and the methodology
050714 - is explained at ref OF 3 line 47.
050715 -
050716 - The article evidently applies a concept developed earlier using a
050717 - more complex PERT scheduling technique, ref OF 3 line 33.
050718 -
050719 -
050720 -
0508 -

SUBJECTS
SDS Marketing, Application to market
Automation Trends
Human Memory, SDS Emulates
Automated Management

0807 - Summary/Objective
0808 -
080801 - Scanned ref OF 5 line 11 showing trends in applying artificial intel-
080802 - ligence (AI) to project management.
080803 -
080804 - The article claims human reasoning can be emulated by computers, ref
080805 - OF 5 Line 43, to solve "complex" PM problems, see also ref OF 5 line
080806 - 69.  The three case studies do not show the proposed methods are
080807 - better than conventional methods of relying on experience and hunch.
080808 -
080809 -
080810 - SDS Most Advanced Automated Support
080811 - for Human Thought
080812 - -----------------------------------
080813 - It mainly indicates that SDS is the most advanced method of applying
080814 - computers to improvement project management, since AI is very limited
080815 - in its scope and success at this time.  SDS provides an environment to
080816 - stretch, capture and support the analytic capabilities of the human
080817 - mind, rather than to replace it.  SDS says, support the weaknesses so
080818 - the strengths can be applied more effectively.
080819 -
080820 - This precept of SDS is supported in the article by noting the strength
080821 - of human mental integration of experience from unrelated events and
080822 - circumstances to solve problems that are not easily reduced to
080823 - mathametical precision, ref OF 5 line 52.  This proposition supports
080824 - the value of having a data base of personal "experience" to draw on
080825 - for problem solving.
080826 -
080827 -
080828 - Neural Networks Basic Tools
080829 -
080830 - Human brain biology is explained in general terms at ref OF 5 line 58.
080831 -
080832 -    "Processing element" (PE) seems to be the basic medium of analysis
080833 -    performed by the brain, ref OF 5 Line 72.
080834 -
080835 -
080836 - Neural network analysis and predictive abilities are claimed to exceed
080837 - following conventional methods (ref OF 5 line 257):
080838 -
080839 -            1.  Averaging and exponent scaling.
080840 -            2.  Best fit equations.
080841 -            3.  Statistical multiple regression analysis
080842 -
080843 -
080844 - Computers Can "Learn"
080845 -
080846 - The proposed software permits the computer to "learn" or otherwise
080847 - gain experience through multiple iterations from "a similar set of
080848 - inputs" (ref OF 5 line 100).
080849 -
080850 -    Comment
080851 -
080852 -    Except in some manufacturing environments, the randomness of human
080853 -    action seems to require learning by distinguishing differences,
080854 -    rather than similarities, between inputs and calculating the degree
080855 -    of difference that a new decision should output.  Almost every
080856 -    decision entails this aspect of identifiying shades of differences
080857 -    and weighting the importance of difference to determine new action,
080858 -    contrary to what seems to be the point of this article to identify
080859 -    commonalities.
080860 -
080861 -
080862 - Authors seem to note the limitation of automated conclusions at ref
080863 - OF 5 line 270:
080864 -
080865 -    ...it would be very risky to assume that a neural network will
080866 -    out-perform standard methods in all cases.
080867 -
080868 -
080869 - Neural networks are another method for analysing information to detect
080870 - trends that predict future results.
080871 -
080872 -
080873 -
0809 -

SUBJECTS
SDS Marketing, Application to market
Project Planning & Oversight
Project Management, Methods, Procedures
Overview of Methods
Correlation to accepted practice and
Conflict resolution in management
Executive Training, 930726

1410 - Summary/Objective
1411 -
141101 - Scanned article at ref OF 8 line 11 on trends to use project
141102 - management methods to improve product development processes in the
141103 - automobile industry, i.e. for manufacturing as opposed to creating
141104 - one of a kind items like a bridge, building, lawsuit, or political
141105 - campaign.
141106 -
141107 - It offers a new term, "Modern Project Managment", MPM, applied to a
141108 - manufacturing term:
141109 -
141110 -                 Product Development Process (PDP)
141111 -
141112 -   ...explained at ref OF 8 line 57, and illustrates traditional PDP
141113 -   diagrams at ref OF 8 line 153 (note that I had to change the form
141114 -   of the node slightly because we cannot produce angles in line draw,
141115 -   and I eliminated one column of nodes from that shown in the article,
141116 -   but did not eliminate any nodes with writing in them).
141117 -
141118 -
141119 - SDS is supported by the author's call to apply new management technol-
141120 - ogy, as well as advances in product and process technology, see ref OF
141121 - 8 line 193.
141122 -
141123 -
141124 -
141125 - The concept of enabling managers to "plan" their work by setting out
141126 - an objective statement and later to create a concise "summary" of
141127 - accomplishments, is supported at ref OF 8 line 198, in emphasizing
141128 - the importance of "planning" as a separate operation from "doing."
141129 -
141130 -
141131 -
141132 - Project Management Methods
141133 -
141134 - The article cites at ref OF 8 line 202, the following methods for
141135 - improving project performance:
141136 -
141137 -        1.  Concurrent Engineering
141138 -        2.  Simultaneous Engineering
141139 -        3.  Over-lapping Problem Solving
141140 -        4.  Co-location
141141 -        5.  Event Quality
141142 -        6.  Early Sourcing
141143 -
141144 - These seem to be regarded as "conventional" methods to the automobile
141145 - industry, because the author distinguishes these methods from those of
141146 - "MPM" which are identified at ref OF 8 line 206, as:
141147 -
141148 -        1.  Analytical Planning
141149 -        2.  Team Building
141150 -        3.  Program Focus with Powerful Computer-aided Scheduling
141151 -
141152 -   ...which the author feels "...is the only proven way to effectively
141153 -   orchestrate people, concepts, work and money.  For any new endeavor,
141154 -   such as a PDP, the team that uses MPM will win." ref OF 8 line 207.
141155 -
141156 -
141157 - Need to Convert Information into Knowledge
141158 -
141159 - Here, it seems POIMS technology to convert "information" into
141160 - "knowledge" would be a powerful addition to the three (3) methods
141161 - cited by the author, per SDS features cited at ref OF 1 line 48 and
141162 - explained at ref OF 1 line 160, for the reasons given at ref SDS 3
141163 - line 111814.
141164 -
141165 -
141166 -
141167 - WBS & CPM Development Scenarios
141168 -
141169 - The author sets out at ref OF 8 line 212, general methods for
141170 - applying these practices in the automobile industry.
141171 -
141172 -
141173 -
141174 - Conflict Identification/Resolution
141175 - Through Reporting
141176 - ..
141177 - The author supports at ref OF 8 line 332 another concept of SDS
141178 - as being creative by identifying "conflicts" through "reporting."
141179 - Actually the author develops this idea as a derivitive of refining
141180 - scope statments for different systems that comprise a complete pro-
141181 - ject.  Early identification is cited as cost effective, see ref OF 8
141182 - line 340.
141183 -
141184 - The author supports at ref OF 8 line 345 the Welch concept of setting
141185 - out positions to invite conflict rather than suppress it, which was
141186 - discussed with Jeff at ref SDS 1 4920.
141187 - ..
141188 - The author seems to support the analysis done in connection with
141189 - the Cal Tech management seminar on the impact of social pressure that
141190 - causes reduced productivity, ref SDS 2 7486 and ref SDS 2 8677.
141191 -
141192 -     [On 970229 management training film review explains social
141193 -     pressure inhibits feedback metrics in daily communication. ref SDS
141194 -     4 3778]
141195 -
141196 -
141197 -
141198 -
1412 -