THE WELCH COMPANY
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S U M M A R Y


DIARY: August 19, 2001 07:54 PM Sunday; Rod Welch

Economy problems more serious and long-lasting than expected.

1...Summary/Objective


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CONTACTS 

SUBJECTS
Recession Reduced Earnings Stock Prices Decimated
Steepest Decline for 3rd Quarter Since 1991
Recession Steepest Fall Since 1991
Problems More Serious Long Lasting than Expected

3206 -    ..
3207 - Summary/Objective
3208 -
320801 - Follow up ref SDS A9 0000, ref SDS A7 0000.
320802 -
320803 - Reuters reported today U.S. economy was supposed to have been pumped
320804 - up by cheaper credit and tax rebates, but woes are proving to be more
320805 - serious and long-lasting than economists thought. ref OF 11 N34H
320806 -
320807 - One of the bleakest economic signals came in the Fed's periodic "Beige
320808 - Book,"  released on Aug. 8, which said that the troubles in the
320809 - hard-hit U.S. manufacturing sector had begun to spill over into other
320810 - areas of the economy. ref OF 11 FH4J
320811 -
320812 -     Reflects report on 001207 that too many people having too many
320813 -     problems. ref SDS 89 V54M
320814 -
320815 -     Supports planning on 010712 that weak economy fosters reduced
320816 -     confidence in IT, opening opportunity for people to consider using
320817 -     SDS for intelligence. ref SDS A6 ZR5G
320818 - ..
320819 - Economists hope the third quarter will begin showing growth.
320820 - Companies with shelves full of unsold goods were expected to have
320821 - cleared out much of their inventories, allowing them to step up
320822 - production again. ref OF 11 O44I
320823 -
320824 - Project a 1.7 percent gain in third-quarter U.S. GDP. ref OF 11 6F3J
320825 - ..
320826 - Economists believe much of the impact from the Federal Reserve's
320827 - 2.75 percentage points in interest-rate cuts during the first six
320828 - months of this year will kick in during the 3rd quarter. Such timing
320829 - would be consistent with the theory that rate changes affect the
320830 - economy with a lag of six to nine months. ref OF 11 00GU
320831 -
320832 -     [On 011031 economy suffered biggest fall in 2 decades following
320833 -     terrorist attacks on 010911. ref SDS A9 0001
320834 -
320835 -     [On 011102 job losses worst in 2 decades. ref SDS B0 0001
320836 -
320837 - Consumers are starting to receive checks of up to $600 per household
320838 - from the government under the recently enacted tax-cut package.
320839 - ref OF 11 T55K
320840 -
320841 -     [On 010911 terrorists attacked New York City and the Pentagon,
320842 -     killing 5,000 people.
320843 -
320844 - Strengthens conviction the economy is in a recession, following prior
320845 - reports....
320846 -
320847 -    Too many people having too many problems...001207, ref SDS 89 V54M
320848 -    Productivity falls 1st time in 5 years.....010509, ref SDS 99 0001
320849 -    Labor cost rise steepest in 6 yeas.........010605, ref SDS A0 0001
320850 -    Stock prices fall poor earnings............010705, ref SDS A4 0001
320851 -
320852 - This reflects implosion of management described in NWO. ref OF 5 TQ4O
320853 - and ref OF 5 7501
320854 -
320855 - Andy Grove reports in his book Only the Paranoid Survive improving
320856 - management is like walking through the valley of death, reviewed on
320857 - 980307. ref SDS 57 1660
320858 -
320859 -
320860 -
320861 -
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320863 -
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320865 -
320866 -
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320868 -
3209 -