THE WELCH COMPANY
440 Davis Court #1602
San Francisco, CA 94111-2496
415 781 5700


[Submitted via email]

August 6, 1997                                               03 00050 97080601




Mr. David K. Vaughan, PhD
Assistant Dean for Research and Consulting
Air Force Institute of Technology/LAC
2950 P Street; Building 641
Wright-Patterson AFB, OH  45433

Subject:  Communication Metrics Research

Ref:   a. Kirk's email to Rod Aug 6, 1997
          b. Rod's email to Kirk Aug 5, 1997

Dear Kirk,
At 09:32 AM 97/08/06 EDT,ref a, you wrote: >Thanks, Ed and Rod: We (Craig Brandt and I) will think >about your query, ref b, and see if we can't give you some kind of >helpful response. Give us a couple of weeks. Kirk Vaughan

I look forward to your reply and hope I have not increased "information entropy" but your email which transmitted my message back shows it is jumbled. Hope you can read the original okay. Now that I have the correct email address, I can re-submit or submit via regular mail for clarification.

AFIT's earlier paper on "Uncertainty analysis..." showed a calculation that seemed like it might lead to a way to calculate the rate of error due to the frequency and volume of communications, such that the team gradually winds up working more on fixing mistakes than on original requirements/objectives. Of course, nobody realizes this. They are simply doing what needs to be done day to day. My software shows this occurs, but is focused on the solution, i.e., fixing the mistakes as they occur to reduce cost and time of completion.

Showing cost/benefit needs a means to calculate the rate of entropy and consequent cost increase and time delay that are avoided by adding a dedicated "Communication Manager" or "Project Administrator" to use the software similar to a design engineer using CAD software.

The Communication Manager uses special software to produce business "intelligence" by organizing and analysing "management details" in "knowledge space" the way an architect organizes "construction details" in dimensional space.


Mr. David K. Vaughan, PhD Page 2 of 2 Air Force Institute of Technology/LAC Wright-Patterson AFB, OH 45433 Subject: Communication Metrics Research

Another way to think of this is how to calculate value added of a project manager or other level of effort, e.g., accountant, schedule engineer, etc. Seems like it is all risk avoidance stuff, but the cost/benefit of these roles is not evident in the liturature. So how do we help a project manager, who is intelligent and a good communicator, see that he needs a "Communication Manager" to provide daily business intelligence, a sort of CIA for an executive or team? He says, "Hey, we don't have a budget for this." Then there is denial that a problem exists. Again, AFIT's paper seems to relate communications directly to cost growth, so that is why I am trying to follow up with you folks.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers published an evaluation of this method entitled "Communication Metrics". Lt General Hatch calls it "business intelligence" and sees the Communication Manager role as a leadership aide for senior commanders. If you would like a copy, I can submit it to support your consideration of this matter. Thanks for thinking about this.

Sincerely,

THE WELCH COMPANY



Rod Welch