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[Submitted via Internet]

August 5, 1997                                         03 00050 97080502


Dr. Krik Vaughan
Assistant Dean for Research and Consulting
U.S. Air Force Logistics School

Subject:  Research Communication Metrics
                 Risk Management, Cost/Schedule Growth

Ref:   a. Telecon Ed Mykytka/Rod Welch Aug 5, 1997
          b. Welch letter to AFIT Jul 8, 1997
          c. Uncertainty Analysis in Program Management, AFIT paper
              on "Entropic Cost Model" Weapons Procurement"

Dear Dr. Kirk:


Ed Mykytka suggested I contact you and Dr. Brandt about research on methods and
systems for improving management by adding "metrics" to communications.  An
AFIT paper was published in 1975 by the Project Management Quarterly on
"Uncertainty Analysis for Program Management."  It reported AF findings that
disorder (entropy) in an information base causes cost and schedule growth on
large projects.  The paper presented a calculation for an "Entropic Cost
Model."  This method may support a calculation of cost/benefits for a system of
Communication Metrics I have developed to reduce information entropy by adding
organization and analysis to information through a system of "business
intelligence" using specialized technology.


Recent research by Intel Corporation reports "empowerment" impairs use of
standard management practices across organizational groups, and, in combination
with increased information flow from fax, email and cellular phones, it causes
information disorder.  Constant meetings, calls and documents reduce the time
for information management ("records management" in the military), verification
and research to prepare for meetings.  Intel's paper indicates communications
is becoming a high risk issue due to confusion and errors from management by
"guess and gossip."


Ed said this morning that the authors of the original AFIT article are not
available.  He suggested you and Dr. Brandt may be working on risk and
communication issues.  As well, Deming's ideas on quality of management, and








Dr. Krik Vaughan  
                                         Page 2 of 2
Assistant Dean for Research and Consulting

U.S. Air Force Logistics School

Subject:  Research Communication Metrics







Hammer's "reengineering" of business processes result in fewer people chasing
more information that reduce effective business communications.  Researchers or
managers involved in these efforts may be helpful to develop a solution of
Communication Metrics.  One objective is to develop a way to calculate the
level of effort (management, overhead) required based on anticipated work due
to communication flows, rather than rely on traditional order of magnitude
calculations that use a simple percentage of direct cost.  Since the business
environment has changed due to regulations and technology, a better method is
needed to estimate management requirements and to perform the function.




Has the Entropic Cost Model evolved into a current application?  Has the Air
Force done any studies on the rate entropy infects an information system as a
function of key factors, like the number of organizations, subjects, frequency
of communications involved in a project that produces congestion or "noise" in
the information base?


Sincerely,


THE WELCH COMPANY






Rod Welch